Prices will fall by 50% in four years

chucknorris

chucky wrote: »

exactly - here's the detail of the article again so that it doesn't get lost in the nonsense that Graham person is trying to create...

here's an update on what the derivative future traders are now saying


http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLNE57A03620090811?rpc=401&&pageNumber=2

I always thought 50% falls were very unlikley and 70% falls were a joke and said so at the time (as you did)

mewbie_2

chucky wrote: »

Signed,

Pickles110564, Mr. Broderick, IveSeenTheLight, Dan:, BTLnewbie, etc

I know how much you like every little detail so just to point out the problem with the signatures above.

Pickles is / was BTLnewbie. Nailed on 100% certainty. He is also many other ID's. Not the most reliable of witnesses.

Mr. Broderick is Mr. Broderick, and many many others. A first class joker. Did he once say something of importance?

ISTL is a reasonable bull. Polite, but unfortunately wrong.

And finally. To put Dan: into any sort of 'proof' shows a very thin argument.

Here's a quote you can use time and time again Chucky - I don't mind when you drag it up, or whether I turn out to be wrong. I think house prices have much further to fall - could be 50% plus from peak to trough. I think the crash could last another five years. That's 2014.

If I am wrong - so be it. It doesn't hurt to try to second guess the future, even if you turn out to have made a mistake. That's my best effort.

Mr_Mumble

We've seen a 40% real-terms fall (taking into account the Sterling trade-weighted index and RPIX) in value from the peak based on LBG/HBOS data. It is disingenuous for bulls to have a go at this article while ignoring the fact that the GBP was worth $1.95 when the piece was written.

Really2

Mr_Mumble wrote: »

We've seen a 40% real-terms fall (taking into account the Sterling trade-weighted index and RPIX) in value from the peak based on LBG/HBOS data. It is disingenuous for bulls to have a go at this article while ignoring the fact that the GBP was worth $1.95 when the piece was written.

What so if I lived in America they have dropped 40% (forgive me but how is that actually anyone buying or selling within the UK? )

!!!!!! how much have they increased this year then seeing it was $1.38 around the start of the year.

I presume you are calling this a boom now then?

sabretoothtigger

Mr_Mumble wrote: »

We've seen a 40% real-terms fall (taking into account the Sterling trade-weighted index and RPIX) in value from the peak based on LBG/HBOS data. It is disingenuous for bulls to have a go at this article while ignoring the fact that the GBP was worth $1.95 when the piece was written.

Pretty much what I would say. Our view of the world is from the inside of this goldfish bowl called britain, what is likely true in real terms is very much different and that is what actually matters in future prices


The whole bull bear thing is bullocks because its not a simple situation occurring and both sets will be correct to some extent.

I dont think house prices will fall while the price of everything else goes up, what proportions will be maintained in everything I could not say but houses are good long term and whole short term speculative thing was incorrect and that applies to bull or bear

brit1234

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Half of these people are no longer contributors and the other half have been discredited. Nothing to see here, move along....

I haven't been discredited and I am still here. So are some of the others.

Now if you can show the economic reasons why this won't happen please enlightern because from my view things have got worse economically.

House prices were fueled by cheap credit, fraud and land registry manipulation. There has been a mass clamp down on fraud, gift deposits for the land registry manipulation have gone as well as certain government housing loans. As for the cheap credit, 25% deposits and the end to majority of self certs mortgages.

There is only so long estate agents can mis represent the facts, and these individual cash reserves are close to exhaustion which includes bank of mum and dad.

Everyone knows interest rates won't stay at 0.5%. Any one buyer on the basis of this affordability is in for a shock. Low interest rates just delay the problem not solve it. The housing market bubble has burst and the market will naturally return back to normal.

Dan:_4

brit1234 wrote: »

I haven't been discredited and I am still here. So are some of the others.

Now if you can show the economic reasons why this won't happen please enlightern because from my view things have got worse economically.

House prices were fueled by cheap credit, fraud and land registry manipulation. There has been a mass clamp down on fraud, gift deposits for the land registry manipulation have gone as well as certain government housing loans. As for the cheap credit, 25% deposits and the end to majority of self certs mortgages.

There is only so long estate agents can mis represent the facts, and these individual cash reserves are close to exhaustion which includes bank of mum and dad.

Everyone knows interest rates won't stay at 0.5%. Any one buyer on the basis of this affordability is in for a shock. Low interest rates just delay the problem not solve it. The housing market bubble has burst and the market will naturally return back to normal.

By this statement, are you standing by your 50% by Christmas 2009 prediction, as per your siginture?

RDB

Snooze wrote: »

There is no price crash. It's just a blip. It'll all be over in a couple of months.

Signed,

Pickles110564, Mr. Broderick, IveSeenTheLight, Dan:, BTLnewbie, etc

Dont forget SteveJ, Mitchaa and their sock puppets.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

PROPERTY BOTTOM - History tells us that property stagnates for years at the bottom, there will be no rapid rises at the bottom, don't rush

Actually, history tells us that you are incorrect.....

In two out of the last three crashes, prices rose rapidly after staying at bottom for only a year or so.

Only in the 90's crash did they linger at the bottom for many years.

MRSTITTLEMOUSE

mymatebob wrote: »

Thank goodness I bought my house a long time ago.

50% drop would still leave me well in profit.

But then I bought my house to live it - not for speculation or to let or to be an investment - it is my home.

Our feelings too.