Land Registry Figures. 30 May. -0.2% (month) +2.37% (year) - but these are April figs

PasturesNew

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/hpireportapril2008.pdf

Er .. discuss.

MissMoneypenny

I asked this before, but didn't see a reply. Does anyone know if LR use repossession prices in their stats?

oldMcDonald

PasturesNew wrote: »

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/library/documents/hpireportapril2008.pdf

Er .. discuss.

Lower drop than recent data, however these figs are for April entries. Given that it may take up to four weeks for the data to get to land reg and then be released (gap between Land Reg statements), plus give eight weeks from offer to completion (is that average for a no problems, easy chain type of sale?)...well these figs give an idea of how the house prices were going around Feb / March.

pickles110564

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

I asked this before, but didn't see a reply. Does anyone know if LR use repossession prices in their stats?

Whatever the final sale price is what gets used at the LR

pickles110564

oldMcDonald wrote: »

give eight weeks from offer to completion

That is if you can get a chain started.

Generali

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

I asked this before, but didn't see a reply. Does anyone know if LR use repossession prices in their stats?

From the end of the document linked to:

The HPI is produced using the Repeat Sales Regression (RSR)
method. Under the RSR method, house price growth is measured
by observing houses which have been sold more than once. By
using repeat transactions, differences in the quality of homes
comprised in any monthly sample are greatly reduced – thereby
ensuring an ‘apples to apples’ comparison. The HPI uses Land
Registry's own price paid dataset. This is a record of all
residential property transactions made in England and Wales
since April 2000. At present it contains details on nine million
sales. Of these, approximately two million are identifiable
matched pairs, providing the basis for the repeat-sales regression
analysis used to compile the index.

The standardised average house prices presented by Land
Registry are calculated by taking the geometric mean price in
April 2000 and moving this in accordance with index changes.
Classical seasonal decomposition (Census Method 1) is used to
isolate the effects of seasonal trends in volume and index
analysis.

Monthly and annual percentage changes displayed for counties,
unitary authorities, metropolitan district councils and London
boroughs represent rolling four-monthly averages of the price
changes over one month and 12 months respectively. All price
changes represent seasonally adjusted movements. Historical
data published as part of the HPI is revised each month as
missing and new data becomes available.

I take that to mean that they measure all 2nd hand sales. As it doesn't specifically exclude them I would take that to mean that they include reposessions.

Please note, conspiracy theory fans, that new builds are not included so gifted deposits on new appartments do not skew these figures upwards. Indeed if you take the view that the 'gifted deposit' is a lie and actually is just a way for a buyer to get a cheaper mortgage which is really 100% (or more!) of the value of the flat then the gifted deposit will cause the LR figures to show falls where there are none.

BenL

I saw this on the bbc website as well being reported. I'm sure they usually specifically say that the figures from LR lag 3 months behind.

No mention this time of that, the way it is reported makes it look like those are Aprils sales, not Feb and March before things really started to take hold.

m00m00

pickles110564 wrote: »

Whatever the final sale price is what gets used at the LR

wrong


land registry excludes 'distressed' sales such as repossessions.

MissMoneypenny

m00m00 wrote: »

wrong


land registry excludes 'distressed' sales such as repossessions.

That is what I had heard.

m00m00

I have been microtracking an area of about 1500 properties for over a year.

this includes comparing listing prices to final sales price etc

it also includes tracking the properties which go to auction, or are sold 'by order of mortgagee in possession'

in all the time I've been tracking these, not a single property of this type has shown up on the land registry data, not one.

I also bought a repossession for cash in April 07. It doesn't show on the land registry

when I paid £3 to get a copy of the deeds, it showed up as 'no price information held'

I queried this with the local office (which is about 2 mins walk from me), and they told me about the 'no distressed sales' information.

EdInvestor

What the LR does include of course is all the sales which don't include mortgages, whereas the Halifax and Nationwide exclude cash sales.

Since around 40% of UK property has no mortgage this is potentially a lot of property deals to exclude.

The LR also appears to exclude Northern Ireland, which I note was down 13.6% in yesterday's Nationwide figures, nearly 10 percentage points higher than the next biggest faller.

IMHO the LR is a much more objective index for the mainstream England and Wales market.