Land Registry Figures. 30 May. -0.2% (month) +2.37% (year) - but these are April figs

hostman

Land Registry figures lag behind by up to six months at worst.

I.e., what we're seeing are sold prices for properties that completed potentially up to six months ago.

The figures are also notoriously volatile, due to how they average the sales. This isn't someone trying to brush the figures off, but simple fact.

So if its showing declines now, when in reality its reporting on what was happening at the end of 2007, very early 2008, then it's going to be a massacre when they release figures later in the year.

Generali

m00m00 wrote: »

wrong


land registry excludes 'distressed' sales such as repossessions.

Link

I stand corrected. LR figures do not include distressed sales:

The Land Registry HPI is derived from all residential property transactions registered with Land Registry since April 2000, with the following exclusions:
...
under a court order

I have no idea why that should be.

Generali

EdInvestor wrote: »

What the LR does include of course is all the sales which don't include mortgages, whereas the Halifax and Nationwide exclude cash sales.

Since around 40% of UK property has no mortgage this is potentially a lot of property deals to exclude.

The LR also appears to exclude Northern Ireland, which I note was down 13.6% in yesterday's Nationwide figures, nearly 10 percentage points higher than the next biggest faller.

IMHO the LR is a much more objective index for the mainstream England and Wales market.

NI accounted for 0.3% points of the 2.4% point fall in the Nationwide figures.

I agree that LR is the most accurate of the indices but remember they exclude new build which is a big slug of the market too.

EdInvestor

Generali wrote: »

Link

I stand corrected. LR figures do not include distressed sales:
I have no idea why that should be.

Perhaps because they create a distortion?

For instance a couple of years ago in the space of about 18 months, a flat near me sold 3 times for 110k, then 85k, then 120k in a period when the market was rising. The initial 110k sale was to someone who later went bankrupt and trashed the place, so the repo sale price was 85k . It was bought by a couple of private developers who tarted it up and sold it on a few months later for 120k.

The repo sale wouldn't have told you anything meaningful about the state of the local property market at all.