So... nationwide tomorrow

neas

1.5% Month on Month drop ?

I think its probable :P

gingin_2

What is the seasonal adjusting for this month? Assuming it is the same as the last I am thinking it will be less than -1%. -1.5 would be awesome though.

King_Of_Fools

I predict a 3% drop year-on-year

obsessed_saver

Well, this time last year, did prices go up from April to May? So if prices have gone down MoM this April to May, surely that's like a double effect on the YoY figures?

Generali

Page 3:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf

A rise of 1% is due to fall out of the YoY figues. The index for May 07 was 362.2 and the index for April 08 was 356.2 so no change in prices during May 08 would mean a fall of:

(356.2-362.2)/362.2 = -6/362.2 = -1.7%

-3% YoY is possible.

brit1234

Can't wait. Lets see if the last few remaining bulls are still in denial.

JonnyBravo

brit1234 wrote: »

Can't wait. Lets see if the last few remaining bulls are still in denial.

And also see if you bite!

:rotfl:


Now that is a proper sport!;)

JimmyTheWig

My prediction is -1.5% year on year. (Or maybe -1.0%)

trudiha

Having been in the lucky position of having someone take the last 10 minutes to explain Generali's post to me I now feel qualified to predict 2.3% YoY negative growth. Will there be prizes?

Generali

JimmyTheWig wrote: »

My prediction is -1.5% year on year. (Or maybe -1.0%)

That would mean a small rise in house prices over the course of the past month which seems unlikely to me.

However (and as ever) we'll see.

trudiha wrote: »

Having been in the lucky position of having someone take the last 10 minutes to explain Generali's post to me I now feel qualified to predict 2.3% YoY negative growth. Will there be prizes?

1st prize: A night out with Generali
2nd prize: 2 nights out with Generali.

obsessed_saver

I expect -3% YoY.

So, only -1.3% MoM Apr-May 08.