A lot of talk...

MrDT

Snooze wrote: »

I don't doubt you for one second and indeed your graphs keep me entertained no end but I was just wondering what this "array of economic data" was that supposedly drew your graph! Go on admit it, you did exactly as JohnBravo says and picked a point that looked half plausible and drew a line to it in Excel or whatever! We've got you sussed .... :rotfl:

Rob

Start > All Programs > Accessories > Paint.

So easy we can all have a go (and I already have )

dopester

Snooze wrote: »

I don't doubt you for one second and indeed your graphs keep me entertained no end but I was just wondering what this "array of economic data" was that supposedly drew your graph! Go on admit it, you did exactly as JohnBravo says and picked a point that looked half plausible and drew a line to it in Excel or whatever! We've got you sussed .... :rotfl:

Rob

Of course I did. I thought it would wind-up Iveseenthelight something chronic + give the "blip" believers something to chew on. :rotfl:

Still, if the BBC can put Kirstie on TV spouting such rubbish, still at it even this month, and similar blind commentators in the broadsheets saying everything is rosy.. it's an outlook I still think is possible.

Snooze

MrDT wrote: »

Start > All Programs > Accessories > Paint.

So easy we can all have a go (and I already have )

I think somewhere in between yours and dopey's, but probably closer to dopey's, imho.

Time will tell. :beer:

Rob

Snooze

dopester wrote: »

Of course I did. I thought it would wind-up Iveseenthelight something chronic + give the "blip" believers something to chew on. :rotfl:

I know you did but it was too good an opportunity to miss for a quick stir.

it's an outlook I still think is possible.

Me too. :j

Rob

dopester

MrDT wrote: »

Start > All Programs > Accessories > Paint.

So easy we can all have a go (and I already have )

One theory, proven in a number of downturns/crashes covered in time period of this graph, and further in to history, is prices fall to just above level where they last slumped to.

You can see it in the graph for the last 3 property slumps (although I think it will be harsher this time)

The 1996 low point levelled off at a point slightly above than the low point of the

1982-1983 low point, which levelled off slightly above the low point of the

1977-1978 low point.

In other words, a house price crash often sees nearly all of the inflationary gains of the boom wiped off. Using such a theory I'd guess you're £25,000 above with your low point in your graph.

Zammo

Snooze wrote: »

I've no idea if you'll end up being right here but that graph just makes me :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: .

:T

Rob

It's no joke. This is the exact same scenario that played out in Mad Max.II.

MrDT

dopester wrote: »

I'd guess you're £25,000 above with your low point in your graph.

Thanks, but that graph was never a prediction on my part I was just showing that 40%+ falls wouldn't look too out of place on the graph really. I don't want to hazard a guess at long term nationwide average prices! I'll go so far as expecting double digit negative yoy before 2008 is out though

I have a hard time believing that the price of smallish houses round here will drop more than 25%, but that's because prices have never really gone totally crazy here. Of course, if they do drop further that's fine by me!

Right now, with no further price drops, and with a 10% deposit in hand I could buy a two bedroom house not too far away that's not falling to pieces for asking price with a 2.15x mortgage (and I'm not especially well paid). Something about these properties halving and being within reach of 1x salary seems unlikely to me.

With a 10k deposit I could buy a really nice place (I know it's all relative, but 3 beds + garden + offroad parking + only 2 miles from the office = nice enough for me!) for 4.1x salary - not a multiple I'd take, if >4x is still being offered even. A drop of 25% (which is pretty much the limit of my realistic local estimates) would mean I could snap the place up with a 2.9x single salary mortgage - this is a servicable debt I'm talking about a nice house that would be suitable for a 2 adult 2 child family, prices for this kind of place dropping much lower than 3x single salary seems unlikely.

Of course, what happens in my little corner of Wales where prices aren't too ridiculous as they stand has little bearing on vastly overpriced parts of the country, or a nationwide average... So I'll just stick to my local estimates for now

If anybody knows of a reliable source for data on average earnings by region/county in the UK I'd really appreciate it. I'm basing all my ideas on my salary being 'average'. I know it's below the UK average, but it's possibly over the local average - and it's the local market I'm interested in...

Generali

MrDT wrote: »

Thanks, but that graph was never a prediction on my part I was just showing that 40%+ falls wouldn't look too out of place on the graph really. I don't want to hazard a guess at long term nationwide average prices! I'll go so far as expecting double digit negative yoy before 2008 is out though

I have a hard time believing that the price of smallish houses round here will drop more than 25%, but that's because prices have never really gone totally crazy here. Of course, if they do drop further that's fine by me!

Right now, with no further price drops, and with a 10% deposit in hand I could buy a two bedroom house not too far away that's not falling to pieces for asking price with a 2.15x mortgage (and I'm not especially well paid). Something about these properties halving and being within reach of 1x salary seems unlikely to me.

With a 10k deposit I could buy a really nice place (I know it's all relative, but 3 beds + garden + offroad parking + only 2 miles from the office = nice enough for me!) for 4.1x salary - not a multiple I'd take, if >4x is still being offered even. A drop of 25% (which is pretty much the limit of my realistic local estimates) would mean I could snap the place up with a 2.9x single salary mortgage - this is a servicable debt I'm talking about a nice house that would be suitable for a 2 adult 2 child family, prices for this kind of place dropping much lower than 3x single salary seems unlikely.

Of course, what happens in my little corner of Wales where prices aren't too ridiculous as they stand has little bearing on vastly overpriced parts of the country, or a nationwide average... So I'll just stick to my local estimates for now

If anybody knows of a reliable source for data on average earnings by region/county in the UK I'd really appreciate it. I'm basing all my ideas on my salary being 'average'. I know it's below the UK average, but it's possibly over the local average - and it's the local market I'm interested in...

The Office for National Statistics is a good starting point for that sort of thing.

Link

IveSeenTheLight

brit1234 wrote: »

I think a 40-50% fall is now extremely likely based on lending at 3.5 times salary.

I think if this were true, there will be many couples / famailies with two working parents who will be buying their property outright within 10 years as opposed to the long standing principle that mortgages were taken out for 25 years.

IveSeenTheLight

dopester wrote: »

Of course I did. I thought it would wind-up Iveseenthelight something chronic + give the "blip" believers something to chew on. :rotfl:

No it just made made :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
I now think you must be a bull in disguise as you certainly can talk a load off bullsh1t;)