A lot of talk...

dopester

kingkano wrote: »

Hysterical. You think prices will fall roughly 75% and then flatline around there? Real world this means my 2 bed flat I sold last year for 160k will be worth 40k? You really think this would EVER come to pass??

That flat had a rental value of £700pcm, thats before rents have increased apparently in the last year. IO mortgage on 40k (heck lets be completely insane and say 40k @ 8%) is £266pm. Need I point out why your forecast won't ever come to be?? Venture capitalists will be in way way before that stage IMO.

If you think about it, £40,000 is still A LOT of money for some compartment living space in a big unit of compartment living space, in cities and towns full of big units of compartment living space.

I doubt your venture capitalists, or even the BTL-ers who got out and aren't trapped in, or banks themselves have the ability to hold up prices in what is currently something like a £3.5 trillion market of UK housing stock on the downslide.

Is there something very special about your old apartment to put it at front of the queue when those with some liquidity have choice prime bargains elsewhere? I think the future buyer's mind-set will recoil in shock at a high asking price of £40,000 for an apartment - with a few regional variations.

dopester

obsessed_saver wrote: »

Again, the achievable rent is based on the general economy. If the whole economy is in for a rough time, people lose jobs, the Poles go home, do you think rents will only ever go up? :rolleyes:

Maybe we're heading into a rental bubble now. www.rentpricecrash.co.uk anyone?

Exactly. There is no reason rents can't fall substantially in many areas. Wages as well. I see houses in a deflationary drop with continuing inflation in items such as energy and food.

Throw increasing unemployment, unfolding to business to business, and big public spending cutbacks in to the mix, on healthcare (NHS) and welfare (DSS or whatever it's currently called), and great reductions in military spending.

Iveseenthelight - yes your are right about trend, to the extent I know the red trend line in my 2014 soft landing projection wouldn't drop as it did from 2008 - but I didn't have the data they've used to calculate it. I consider my trend forecast to be a secondary start from 2008 (not 1975). BTW - I trust you'd give me your vote.

Anyway, we all have our own opinions but my lab computer calculated those forecasts from an array of economic data I entered. It assumes chronic unemployment and some areas having property which becomes essentially worthless for money.

Keep in mind there are few properties around my way you can only get a wreck of a property for £185,000, so even with such an out. For a harder landing it calculates forecasts this as one possible outcome (amongst a few similar). Of course, GIGO still applies.

Conrad

I bought some German properties and I can tell you a bit about the German property slump. Prices and rents fell so far as to render a lot property worthless, and lets not forget this is the worlds largest exporter - thats right, the largest ahead of the USA and Japan.

In Japan, a place where buildable space is in far shorter supply than the UK (much of Japan is not suitable for building) and where interest rates went close to zero, prices fell through the floor.

A 75% drop CAN happen in the UK. It probably wont, but never assume. I see no reason why a 20% drop from peak to trough wont come about, but of course NOT IN MY AREA - IT HAS GREAT SCHOOLS AND A STATION INIT

Snooze

dopester wrote: »

Anyway, we all have our own opinions but my lab computer calculated those forecasts from an array of economic data I entered. It assumes... [...]

:think:

What was this "array of data" then?

Rob

JonnyBravo

Snooze wrote: »

:think:

What was this "array of data" then?

Rob

I sense you're doubting that he didn't just draw it in Excel or the like?? :rolleyes:

Surely not!:D

He has a very big computer you know :rolleyes:

dopester

Well my forecasts are no less ridiculous that lenders doing x7 or x8 salary, or self-cert lie-to-buy for the past few years with incredible house price inflation to extremes - leaving many people trapped in illiquidity and a heavy mortgage to go with it.

When the sheeple still cling to the words of property guru Kirstie on TV this month, clearly not understanding the deeper issues, I have nothing to fear for presenting my own forecasts - when compared to hers - or when compared to many other experts - including single-digit Nationwide.

What is it Kirstie, Government robbing people of their honeymoons or the stonking great deposit they have to find? Make your kin mind up. And she still figures that somehow it will be best for all if house prices rise but more gently... house prices can not go down can they darlin. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7394731.stm

I'm not alone on this forum in predicting possible 75% falls but you choose to believe Kirstie and the other VI mongs, that's your lookout. You did hear that it's possible all banks and lenders might stop writing new mortgages altogether if the crunch gets worse, house prices continue to fall, and liquidity problems continue?

JonnyBravo

dopester wrote: »

Well my forecasts are no less ridiculous that lenders doing x7 or x8 salary, or self-cert lie-to-buy for the past few years with incredible house price inflation to extremes - leaving many people trapped in illiquidity and a heavy mortgage to go with it.

Well I'm not sure on that. The above has already happened... your predictions of the size and speed of the crash haven't.

dopester wrote: »

I'm not alone on this forum in predicting possible 75% falls

Indeed not. Birds of a feather flock together maybe?

dopester wrote: »

but you choose to believe Kirstie and the other VI mongs, that's your lookout.

No I don't believe them either.

dopester wrote: »

You did hear that it's possible all banks and lenders might stop writing new mortgages altogether if the crunch gets worse, house prices continue to fall, and liquidity problems continue?

Stop altogether? Can't see it myself.
You are, of course, entitled to your opinion though.
Even if it is wrong.
You see you have more in common with Kirstie than you ever imagined!

poppy10_2

dannyboycey wrote: »

Can someone remind me.... i there a way you can add someone to an 'ignore list' so that you don't have to read their posts?

Sadly, I too am going to have to add mr b to my ignore list. He used to make some interesting points, but nowadays it seems all he does is start endless wind-up posts, which are nearly all the same. It was mildly amusing at first, but now its just irritating.

Snooze

dopester wrote: »

Well my forecasts are no less ridiculous that lenders doing x7 or x8 salary, or self-cert lie-to-buy for the past few years with incredible house price inflation to extremes - leaving many people trapped in illiquidity and a heavy mortgage to go with it.

When the sheeple still cling to the words of property guru Kirstie on TV this month, clearly not understanding the deeper issues, I have nothing to fear for presenting my own forecasts - when compared to hers - or when compared to many other experts - including single-digit Nationwide.

What is it Kirstie, Government robbing people of their honeymoons or the stonking great deposit they have to find? Make your kin mind up. And she still figures that somehow it will be best for all if house prices rise but more gently... house prices can not go down can they darlin. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7394731.stm

I'm not alone on this forum in predicting possible 75% falls but you choose to believe Kirstie and the other VI mongs, that's your lookout. You did hear that it's possible all banks and lenders might stop writing new mortgages altogether if the crunch gets worse, house prices continue to fall, and liquidity problems continue?

I don't doubt you for one second and indeed your graphs keep me entertained no end but I was just wondering what this "array of economic data" was that supposedly drew your graph! Go on admit it, you did exactly as JohnBravo says and picked a point that looked half plausible and drew a line to it in Excel or whatever! We've got you sussed .... :rotfl:

Rob

ryandj

Any one can make predictions about house prices, predictions are incredibly easy to make on anything and "experts" are always making predictions. Funny how you never hear people saying 'oo sorry I predicted it wrong'.