Sell Your House Now Or Face 80% Falls, what is YOUR prediction?

PasturesNew

neas wrote: »

If houses lost 80%... things would be monumentally bad for everyone... unemployment, recession, food shortages, oil shortages, power outages like in ex-communist countries 10 years ago.

Its not a pretty picture.

I lived through that lot in the 70s. Food shortages were rife. I specifically remember us not being able to afford coffee or potatoes. Also butter and sugar. Petrol shortages and rationing. The 3-day working week. And power cuts. The local newspaper would print a grid of when your scheduled power cuts would occur. They varied day to day, in 6-hour slots. So you'd have no power for one 6-hour slot per day. On the days when it was 6-midnight we'd eat toast cooked on the open fire on a toasting fork.

And this was at the tail end of the cold war, when I was growing up we had all the nucleur threats from Russia. The TV Public Broadcast short films. The adverts. The leaflets. Stand in a doorway, duck under a table. Even test evacuations at school. Then the late 70s brought us IRA bombings in London and further afield. We had bomb scares at school even.

Been there. Done that. I can live through it again.

Sealy

Normally the economy has waves of highs and lows. Highs happen when the economy grows faster than normal. With every high, there is a matching low which over a long period of time usually balances out to a stably growing economy.

Recently the housing market has seen a huge high where it grew much faster than the economy did, as a result we are now in a time of "correction" where the markets will shift to a low to correct the fact that houses are overpriced and have outpaced the economy lately.

My prediction is that in this time of correction which may last from 1 year to 3 years, house prices will drop around 20% to match the normal growth rate that we saw before the housing boom.

amcluesent

>I strongly believe that between price falls and currency falls houses will drop by 80% on average<

So, on that basis of your views have you shorted every company involved in property, shorted GBP and open spread bets that the Dec 2010 London house price will be less than £100,000?

IIRC my last post on who had actually backed their views with cash revealed that all the blow-hards were doing nothing to make money from the declines they were certain were coming!

neas

PasturesNew wrote: »

I lived through that lot in the 70s. Food shortages were rife. I specifically remember us not being able to afford coffee or potatoes. Also butter and sugar. Petrol shortages and rationing. The 3-day working week. And power cuts. The local newspaper would print a grid of when your scheduled power cuts would occur. They varied day to day, in 6-hour slots. So you'd have no power for one 6-hour slot per day. On the days when it was 6-midnight we'd eat toast cooked on the open fire on a toasting fork.

And this was at the tail end of the cold war, when I was growing up we had all the nucleur threats from Russia. The TV Public Broadcast short films. The adverts. The leaflets. Stand in a doorway, duck under a table. Even test evacuations at school. Then the late 70s brought us IRA bombings in London and further afield. We had bomb scares at school even.

Been there. Done that. I can live through it again.

Its a far cry from the lifestyle I've grown up in, but i'm not stupid this could be an eventuality. Oil is more a finite resource than nuclear power is thats all I'd say, a, glad the government is investing again in nuclear /renewable technology for the future.

I think we need this to refine the british people from being greedy egotisical muppets to hard working people who know what it means to be hard done by... and thats me too..

Oliveru

amcluesent wrote: »

>I strongly believe that between price falls and currency falls houses will drop by 80% on average<

So, on that basis of your views have you shorted every company involved in property, shorted GBP and open spread bets that the Dec 2010 London house price will be less than £100,000?

IIRC my last post on who had actually backed their views with cash revealed that all the blow-hards were doing nothing to make money from the declines they were certain were coming!

If I had any savings you can bet I would be shorting sterling by buying gold, silver or foreign property in certain places.

If you are referring to shorting via the Futures markets then that is very risky as your timing has to be so precise and I can't tell you exactly when prices will bottom out-

If I could I'd be rich but I believe it's more likely to be a long winded Japanese style housing crash over 10 years rather than a short one which bottoms out by 2010!

MrSafeGaz

Hilarious, I just can't take somebody seriously with such a ridiculously extreme view. I am by no means an expert but I think I can safely say that houses will never drop by 80% of their value, not in a million years.

LillyJ

MrSafeGaz wrote: »

Hilarious, I just can't take somebody seriously with such a ridiculously extreme view. I am by no means an expert but I think I can safely say that houses will never drop by 80% of their value, not in a million years.

A million years? Now that is a long term prediction!;)

m00m00

I can guarantee at least one house that will drop by 80% in the long run

that one that was linked on here a few weeks ago on the edge of a cliff for cash buyers only, and stating a finite lifespan on the property.

MrSafeGaz

m00m00 wrote: »

I can guarantee at least one house that will drop by 80% in the long run

that one that was linked on here a few weeks ago on the edge of a cliff for cash buyers only, and stating a finite lifespan on the property.

So what? What a meaningless guarantee. You could also guarantee that at least one house will rise in the long run. There are always exceptions.

Oliveru

m00m00 wrote: »

on the edge of a cliff

A good metaphor for the whole of the UK housing market I'd say

I think Rick62 unwittingly said it best that my statements don't add sensibly to peoples understanding of the issues because most people in this forum don't understand all the issues