Sell Your House Now Or Face 80% Falls, what is YOUR prediction?

PasturesNew

I'd say 30-50% over 4 years, with better houses dropping 30% and less desirables dropping 50%.

As a separate issue to those, there will be oddities. Repossessions/desperados etc, where they might fall 50-80% on an individual basis out of the norm.

The prices I am stating here don't take account of inflation or other sums. Simply the price tag.
Where 33% off means £180k today, £120k then. Keeps it easier.

LillyJ

bandraboy wrote: »

Yeah I'm a first time poster, although I've been lurking for years and haven't noticed your posts before.

I don't know who you are or your financial position. You could be the PM's wife for all I care.

But even if you are in a good position, you have family and friends. All I know is during the last recession, although I did very well thanks very much, it was painful to see family, friends and colleagues trying to scrape things together.

My assumptions were from your posts - which sounded like you were in denial - and not even wise to the current economic state of the West.

I'm not suggesting 80 per cent falls - that would be extreme. But they're not going to just fall by 15 per cent either.

And I hadn't thought about the effect on the real value a decline in the value of sterling would have.

It will make a significant difference for me - as all my savings are in foreign currencies.

I am well aware of the economic situation. I don't care whether prices fall 15% or 50% really. But I know they aren't going to fall 80%.

Oliveru

LillyJ wrote: »

I am well aware of the economic situation. I don't care whether prices fall 15% or 50% really. But I know they aren't going to fall 80%.

Oh well if you know then you clearly know everything and should be rich by now? Oh wise one, please show us the way..

amcluesent

So, is 80% and average price fall? Let's be honest, in the economic turmoil where that was even possible, lots of bad things would also be happening! I reckon we'd have annexed the Sudetenland by the time a 50% drop came around...

LillyJ

Oliveru wrote: »

Oh well if you know then you clearly know everything and should be rich by now? Oh wise one, please show us the way..

Yep I do know they aren't going to fall 80%. No I don't know everything. I imagine nearly everyone on here but you and your friend knows that they aren't going to fall 80%.

How would I get rich knowing that prices aren't going to fall 80%? Excuse me Mr Ladbrokes I would like to place a £1000 bet on house prices NOT falling 80%. Hmmm great odds they'd be;)

neas

Your period of prediction is too long.

The lng and short of it is... predictions are just predictions.. short term predictions are more accurate... medium term less accurate... and longer term ones very inaccurate.. Just because there are so many variables.

I couldn't even make an educated guess as to what the house prices will do more than 5 years time because all previous data points towards the more conservative view that... supply and demand will prevail:

Houses will drop 10%-15% per year for a sustained period of perhaps 3-5 years. The house builders currently being made broke are stopping producing new stoke... people are still have children.... theres a backlog of people waiting to buy a house at the 'right' time. Even though I'm a a FTB i don't think we'd see anything over 40%... 50% is optimistic.

Other things would have to happen to reduce by 80%..... Your talking of the entire population loosing a large part of their wealth....

If houses lost 80%... things would be monumentally bad for everyone... unemployment, recession, food shortages, oil shortages, power outages like in ex-communist countries 10 years ago.

Its not a pretty picture.

Then again... I think thats maybe what this country needs.... People have become lax about working for a living, some sponge of benefits, hooded criminals knife and gun down people in the streets of london. We've had a good run my fellow british but the hard times are coming and i really think britain as a small country has less to offer than the developing countries with huge labour forces, who work for less, who work for longer... have.

Ultimately I think the chavvy attitude of a few english people will be in shock..

LillyJ

neas wrote: »

Your period of prediction is too long.

The lng and short of it is... predictions are just predictions.. short term predictions are more accurate... medium term less accurate... and longer term ones very inaccurate.. Just because there are so many variables.

I couldn't even make an educated guess as to what the house prices will do more than 5 years time because all previous data points towards the more conservative view that... supply and demand will prevail:

Houses will drop 10%-15% per year for a sustained period of perhaps 3-5 years. The house builders currently being made broke are stopping producing new stoke... people are still have children.... theres a backlog of people waiting to buy a house at the 'right' time. Even though I'm a a FTB i don't think we'd see anything over 40%... 50% is optimistic.

Other things would have to happen to reduce by 80%..... Your talking of the entire population loosing a large part of their wealth....

If houses lost 80%... things would be monumentally bad for everyone... unemployment, recession, food shortages, oil shortages, power outages like in ex-communist countries 10 years ago.

Its not a pretty picture.

neas for once I agree with you!:T

You sound positively conservative in your estimates compared to this guy!

PasturesNew

Oliveru wrote: »

Here is a good exercise, how about everyone says how much they can afford food and oil to increase in price before their expenditure is higher than their income?

I can afford food and oil to double in price because I live at home with my parents and don't travel far to work. Is there anyone that will admit they can't afford this happening?

I rent. So if all other prices stayed the same except food and fuel, how long could I keep going:
- food can go up 200-fold. So a loaf of bread cost £200, not £1.
- fuel can do what it likes as I don't HAVE to use my car, it's just darned cheap and convenient. But let's save 5-fold. So a litre costs £6 and not £1.20. Although I'd be happy to forgo a loaf of bread to fill up.

Rick62

Oliveru,

I think there are some very serious issues facing the UK, clearly everyone is now expecting a correction in house prices, with most serious commentators talking about 20% to 30% (and more for some new build).

As you alude to however we also have more serious structural problems, one being the £ sterling losing its value in international markets, also with the UK high debt, lack of manufacturering, lack of provision for our retired population (set to double over the next 20 years). However coming out with a statement that prices are set to fall 80% is out of context and does not really add sensibly to anyones understanding of the issues.

neas

I would love for a house to be cheap but I make my 'guess' as we all do.. by being realistic.

Either way one thing is most likely: England has been running off the fumes of the british empire... we are a small country with alot of resources consumed... we need to innovate to sustain this kind of lifestyle we are accustomed to.

What is happening is that the previously 2nd world countries (china/India and others) are rising in their pesonal wealth... which is reducing our wealth. Oil is running out, and an alternative will have to be found sometime. People will cope... we always have but our current fast and furious lifestyle.. our easy lifestyles are coming to an end methinks.

Its not just England its EU and America... the previously wealthy 'countries' are feeling the pinch too in their economies.

And when the economy is pinched and everything costs more.... the previous golden systems will feel the strain and maybe even collapse... the NHS, the benefit system will have too many people claiming for the workers to support them. It will be quite bad but i think it will make us all stronger. Its doom and gloom but this is life people always have a way of surviving .

After all this Im for Nuclear power plants in all honesty... they are the next step to produce power for our cars and our homes, The next step then will be finding the next fuel source for our people.