Just been out bid for a house!

beingjdc

Vincenzo wrote: »

I am not going to pretend to know much about the futures market but I am pretty sure they have been pricing in falls of up to 10% a year for the past few years.

They were pricing in falls in 2005 - but that's a buying opportunity. For as long as they're pricing in falls, buying futures is more likely to make you a profit than buying real houses...

But yes, 20% is what is priced in.

Oh, and 2 empty flats in my (London) block of 12. Awaiting rent, should go fairly quickly but have been overpriced in my view.

andys15

Well just this week, I looked at two houses, only to be informed that they had been sold, and full asking prices. They had been on the market for a few months.
I think people are getting sick of all the hype, with everyman and his dog predicting massive drops, and putting the fear of God into us about negative equity. I have just bought this week.(house i have been renting in for 2 years)
Can someone please tell me what would happen to the world, if prices droppped by 40%. The most extreme view I have read is that it would spell the end of the world.

mr.broderick

HankMcSpank wrote: »

Don't listen to us, we don't know Bo Diddley, listen instead to the head of Persimmons homes...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/persimmon-suspends-new-projects-amid-fears-of-falling-prices-815494.html

Interesting persimmons have just built a load of houses on an old hospital site in a nice area couldnt swing a cat in them, 2 bed townhouses starting at £169,000 1st phase all sold. Not sure what incentives are on them but there still seems to be people ignoring all the hype.

mr.broderick

andys15 wrote: »

Well just this week, I looked at two houses, only to be informed that they had been sold, and full asking prices. They had been on the market for a few months.
I think people are getting sick of all the hype, with everyman and his dog predicting massive drops, and putting the fear of God into us about negative equity. I have just bought this week.(house i have been renting in for 2 years)
Can someone please tell me what would happen to the world, if prices droppped by 40%. The most extreme view I have read is that it would spell the end of the world.

Doubt the world would end, doubt it would even spell the beginning of the end but im sure it would definitely be the end of the beginning

MissMoneypenny

PasturesNew wrote: »

There are plenty of people in the country who aren't online/here, who don't watch the news at all, who don't buy many/any newspapers and will simply not know things have changed... yet.

Exactly. I was told a couple of months ago about someones son who is the forces and was looking for his first house in Lincolnshire. He put in an offer just 4k less than the asking price on a house on for the mid 200,000k and was really surprised when the seller immediately agreed. It took him while to realise the market was dropping and he was only going to be buying into negative equity.

andys15

mr.broderick wrote: »

Doubt the world would end, doubt it would even spell the beginning of the end but im sure it would definitely be the end of the beginning

I think it was an article in the Times, and although it was extreme, it raised some worrying points. I cannot see how if house prices fell by what most people are stating on here 40%, it would be good for anyone.
On paper it sounds great. I just cannot believe that people who cant get on the ladder, will have anymore of a chance with such a crash.

WTF?_2

andys15 wrote: »

I think it was an article in the Times, and although it was extreme, it raised some worrying points. I cannot see how if house prices fell by what most people are stating on here 40%, it would be good for anyone.
On paper it sounds great. I just cannot believe that people who cant get on the ladder, will have anymore of a chance with such a crash.

People with a decent amount of savings and no debt will certainly have a good chance of getting a house in the event of a substantial price crash.

Those carrying large amounts of debt or unable to organise their finances to accumulate some savings, probably not.

High house prices are mostly a function of the cheap, easy credit of the last six ro seven years.

exiled_2

Merlinpixie wrote: »

I don't think we thought the house was particularly expensive ifor what it was, compared to most we have looked at, indeed, ewe have the budget to go up to £280k, however my main concern is buying the house today and then starting to lose money tommmorow as prices continue to fall, ok we don't know for certain what the outcome of fall in prices will be, however I think I'm being very conservative to say that house prices will only fall by 10% over the next few years.

follow your own instincts. You are best to make your own decision as then you have no one to blame.
I am not a FTB sitting on a pile of cash (in my od every month but do have a long term plan). I think it will take 4 years for all this to unwind. It is very important to ignore the timescales that the media and many people use. A lot of people think that in a year or two they will pick up houses very cheap and others think that any crash will be small and the market will have picked up in a year or so and the 'normal' ever rising prices will have resumed. If you do your research you may come to the conclusion as I have that falls in a market like this can take an extended period of time. It requires holding your nerve. There will always be people who will buy at the top or even in a falling market just as there were people who didn't buy at a cheap price in the late 90's as property was a bad investment.

HankMcSpank

andys15 wrote: »

I think people are getting sick of all the hype, with everyman and his dog predicting massive drops, and putting the fear of God into us about negative equity.

Ooh the irony,...after 15 years of unrelenting bull hype, after just a few short months of negative press, we're now getting "people are getting sick of this negative hype, I want my old hype back". You couldn't make this stuff up.

I can only assume you're under 40 and have no recollection of the property market around 1990-94?!

re falling 40%, well The California Association of Estate Agents has just released its report for March.....

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/car-media...

Home sales decreased 24.5 percent compared with the same period a year ago, while the average price of an existing home fell 29 percent.

TWENTY NINE PERCENT! (If you look at the acompanying table in their report, in one area - Mounterey County - house prices have fallen an eye watering 46% in just ONE year!)

It couldn't happen here though.

Be afraid when buying a house at this point in the cycle, be *very* afraid.

continualdiamond

Wow....a FTB being able to put in an offer of £225,000!!!!

Id count your blessings that you have that luxury of being able to look at houses around the £249,950 mark.

I was a FTB in Oct 2006, my max budget £82,000. Id be in heaven it i was able to afford to look at houses in the value your looking at and lets be honest with that amount for the budget, your going to have loads of houses to look at.

I was at the bottom of the market and it took me ages to find a house, i was pretty much having to wait for them to come onto the market and in saying that it was only £82,000 as its a leasehold property, i couldn't afford a freehold house.

Besides, i missed out on my 1st choice of house, by 1 hour. I was upset and had covinced myself id lost my dream house, but where i am now, it much better than the house i lost out on anyway.