Just been out bid for a house!

mr.broderick

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Count your blessings at such a lucky escape and continue to save for as large a deposit as possible. Think about looking again in about 18 months time (unless the crash is really sharp and steep).

Any news on the crash !!!!!!? We any closer sir?

beingjdc

mr.broderick wrote: »

Any news on the crash !!!!!!? We any closer sir?

Yep, we're bang in the middle. Halifax house price average now just under £195k, from a peak of £200k. Futures market implied rate now £171k this December, £159k December 2009, and then levelling off.

I can't see it happening quite that quickly so I'm buying up futures at that price to 'insure' myself, but that's what the market predicts.

mr.broderick

beingjdc wrote: »

Yep, we're bang in the middle. Halifax house price average now just under £195k, from a peak of £200k. Futures market implied rate now £171k this December, £159k December 2009, and then levelling off.

I can't see it happening quite that quickly so I'm buying up futures at that price to 'insure' myself, but that's what the market predicts.

Interesting stuff, so 20% drop? that's quite substantial.

pickles110564

beingjdc wrote: »

Yep, we're bang in the middle. Halifax house price average now just under £195k, from a peak of £200k. Futures market implied rate now £171k this December, £159k December 2009, and then levelling off.

I can't see it happening quite that quickly so I'm buying up futures at that price to 'insure' myself, but that's what the market predicts.

If we were bang in the middle surely the price would indicate £180K

Vincenzo

beingjdc wrote: »

Yep, we're bang in the middle. Halifax house price average now just under £195k, from a peak of £200k. Futures market implied rate now £171k this December, £159k December 2009, and then levelling off.

I can't see it happening quite that quickly so I'm buying up futures at that price to 'insure' myself, but that's what the market predicts.

I am not going to pretend to know much about the futures market but I am pretty sure they have been pricing in falls of up to 10% a year for the past few years.

I don't want to get into the specifics of the prices, just making the point that they maybe as useful as the other data we all rely on......such as......Mortgage Lenders house price information, Land Registry data, Rightmove (!), LIBOR, NOS....all flawed in so many ways.

Whilst the trend appears now to be downwards, the events in the credit markets over the next 6 months or so will determine whether the fall will be a stark reduction in prices or a gradual real decrease over time once inflation is factored in.

BTLNEWbie_3

Vincenzo wrote: »

I am not going to pretend to know much about the futures market but I am pretty sure they have been pricing in falls of up to 10% a year for the past few years.

I don't want to get into the specifics of the prices, just making the point that they maybe as useful as the other data we all rely on......such as......Mortgage Lenders house price information, Land Registry data, Rightmove (!), LIBOR, NOS....all flawed in so many ways.

Whilst the trend appears now to be downwards, the events in the credit markets over the next 6 months or so will determine whether the fall will be a stark reduction in prices or a gradual real decrease over time once inflation is factored in.

Yet again there will have to be loads of people needing to sell to influence a great drop in prices.Most will sit back until the general public go to sleep and forget about the problem

HankMcSpank

mr.broderick wrote: »

Any news on the crash !!!!!!? We any closer sir?

Don't listen to us, we don't know Bo Diddley, listen instead to the head of Persimmons homes...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/persimmon-suspends-new-projects-amid-fears-of-falling-prices-815494.html

UK007BullDog

I am not much of a fan of newbuilds as they are just small pigeon holes.

In London alone there are nearly 100,000 homes EMPTY!!!!!!!!
In the rest of the UK it could be up to 500,000 or even more. Lets get them back onto the market than flattening more land for sleeper/commuter towns.

teabelly

How many million homes are there altogether? How many of those empty homes belong to dead people, those abroad, those in prison, those dodging council tax, those waiting for at tenant, empty holiday homes, those being refurbished, those uninhabitable to flood or fire, those belonging to people in care homes? When was the census taken - in the summer there will be thousands of extra student properties that are empty.

What is the population of London and what proportion of all homes do those 100,000 represent? How many are city crash pads?

Last figure I read was around 300,000 empty homes in England. Not sure whether that included Wales.

PasturesNew

teabelly wrote: »

Last figure I read was around 300,000 empty homes in England. Not sure whether that included Wales.

Well, if you want to start counting, 3 out of 8 in my block are empty because:
- selling/moved out
- rental/unoccupied
- rental/unoccupied



So that's 3 in Wales.