House prices down again in August

dean_ham

Full story on CEEFAX 2 page 202

Basically it says house prices fell again in August, even with interest rate cut.
Average price of property fell by 0.1% prices fell by 0.2% in july.

This is the 14th month in sucession that propery prices have gone down.

Hometrack says prices have fallen 3.7% over the last year.
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Hands up who thinks there will be a correcting in the prices of property over the next 2 years?

meanmachine_2

Hmm, a thread inviting comments on house prices.

That's new.

I can't really confidently predict where house prices will go, but I can, with some certainty predict that the thread will quickly turn into a slanging match.

Such is the Brits' obsession with housing.

I suggest you check out the "roll up" thread for past and entirely non-heated debate.

dean_ham

Yes i have visited that post.

I had a conversation with a guy in work with me, me being 20 he keeps telling me to get on the property ladder etc, told him i will wait 2 years to see what happens with the market. He actually started to shouting at me saying property prices will never drop they always go up (Him hoping they will rise as he has 7 under his name around the area)
Told him - Your hoping they go up, im hoping they go down, if im wrong im wrong will speak to you in 2 years time and talk about it

Its this video where it shows the graphs of property prices rising and when it says will it stagnate or will it correct. IT HAS TO CORRECT!!!
http://www.parkerchris.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/vocationvocationvocation.html

meanmachine_2

90% of the population are, for some reason hoping they'll stagnate (most being ignorant homeowners who think they'll be "worserer off" if they do fall)

5% are hoping they'll fall so that they aren't crippled by a huge FTB mortgage.

5% are praying that they keep rising - these include your mate with his "portfolio" of properties" as well as a bunch of EAs - Kirstie et al.

In 5 years time one of these groups is going to be mightily disappointed.

My money's on those who have had it good for the last 8 years, and still have their snouts in the trough.

But what do I know? If I had foresight I'd have bought back in 1995.

GDB2222

I did buy heavily in the period 1993 to 1995, so I got that right. But I have been completely wrong-footed by the continuing rise in property values since 2001. I actually deliberately sold property in 2001, only to see values double since then! So, my credentials as a guru are severely tarnished. Nevertheless, I can still see the present boom ending in tears. The worst sign is that so many people think that property prices can only go up.

meanmachine_2

But if you hadn't sold in 2001, you might have clung on until today and found that you simply couldn't sell.

Or you would have used these properties to gear up even more heavily and be even more exposed now.

It's those who have bought in the last few years and who are still buying who have made two bad decisions, one after the other.

I'm still intending to buy as, over the longer term, it makes sense. But right now? I can't for the life ofme see how the sums add up.

But maybe the Eas are right and property prices will have doubled again by 2010.

But I can't see how. We ran out of money back in 2004.

odorus

meanmachine wrote:

It's those who have bought in the last few years and who are still buying who have made two bad decisions, one after the other.

I'm still intending to buy as, over the longer term, it makes sense. But right now? I can't for the life of me see how the sums add up.

I guess I made a bad decision last year buying my house, by your reckoning. I bought it last year for £148k and my neighbour just sold his for £165k.
The problem is people are just seeing property as an investment, instead of looking at it as the place they will live in that will as a by product increase in value over time.
I bought my current place not because I was thinking about it as a cash cow, but because I was fed up with London and wanted to move out. When I saw it I liked it and knew I would like living in it and so bought it. The price increase was an added bonus.
As for property sales, yes it is very slow and yes there is a slight drop in the market but it isn't crashing. I just accepted an offer from a FTB on a flat of mine, he was desperate enough to get it that he came up with an extra £3k above his mortgage to secure it.
You have nothing to loose by waiting a little longer before buying a house. I would certainly look casually at houses though, in the papers etc, because you will start to see places that have been up for sale for a while. Those are good ones to target as the owners may well have a place they want to buy and will be wanting a quick sale as a result. As a FTB it puts you in a very strong position to haggle, and haggle hard.
Good luck

meanmachine_2

odorus wrote:

I guess I made a bad decision last year buying my house, by your reckoning. I bought it last year for £148k and my neighbour just sold his for £165k.

There really are still greater fools out there.

Not many left, but one or two.

I'll pass for the next few years thanks. Every quid I save is two quid I don't have to hand back to the banks.

And if prices defy everyone's expectations and suddenly start soaring again, well then I'll have "missed the boat" for ever, won't i?

Not sure how the next generation below me with their huge student debts would ever be able to afford a house, but house prices only ever go up, right?

Don't they?

GDB2222

I certainly heard the mantra 'house prices can only go up' in 1988. Actually, if you had bought then and held on until now you would have done okay. So, on a long term basis the track record is good. Nevertheless, there was a long period in between when a 1988 purchase looked really bad.

bridiej

You may be interested in this http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=86545

zag2me

I spoke to a friend who got caught in negative equity badly in the 80s, he said in hidsight he would do it again, as he wasnt forced to sell at the time, a house price crash didnt effect him in the slightest other than to make him "feel" less rich. He now lives in a huge 3 bedroom house in the nice area of town