Are you a "Recession virgin"?

[Deleted User]

!!!!!!? wrote: »

No danger of your organisation deciding to reduce headcount then? We've been steadily hiring people and continue to do so.

Your employers have no other business outside of safe long-term government contracts (with no get-out clauses for the government)? We have several major government contracts and multiple non-government contracts. I've worked on both kinds and was hired pre-major contracts.

No danger of projects being cancelled? Not until 2012

No danger of your employer deciding to bring in cheaper workers or offshore some work? Our team already consists of multiple nationalities. We have an office in India but they don't 'compete with out jobs' since we're not programmers. They'd have to train along side our team for a minimum of 2 years to be sufficiently capable to take our jobs.

As prices and costs rise (stagflation, seems to be happening now) businesses will inevitably look for ways to cut back. Headcount is inevitably the easiest and quickest way to cut the bottom line. Still, I admire your confidence.

Cheers, there's no point being negative in life. I've had 2 promotions in 6 months at work, I'm part of a great team and work is good.

As an added bonus, all our technology is proprietary - it's really hard to be replaced quickly. I work with hospital IT systems - unless the hospitals want to suddenly start supporting their software themselves, i don't see our business tanking. We're a multinational and we'd need a truly global recession to cause havoc.

WTF?_2

ringo_24601 wrote: »

We've been steadily hiring people and continue to do so.

Well, I guess if you've been steadily hiring then it will continue indefinitely, no cause for worry there then.

We have several major government contracts and multiple non-government contracts. I've worked on both kinds and was hired pre-major contracts.

Right, so the overall scope of your employer is well beyond the simple and safe environment of a fixed public sector contract.

Our team already consists of multiple nationalities. We have an office in India but they don't 'compete with out jobs' since we're not programmers. They'd have to train along side our team for a minimum of 2 years to be sufficiently capable to take our jobs.

I think that's what a lot of people said - before their jobs went to India. Interesting to see that your organisation is already looking to expand there.

As an added bonus, all our technology is proprietary - it's really hard to be replaced quickly. I work with hospital IT systems - unless the hospitals want to suddenly start supporting their software themselves, i don't see our business tanking. We're a multinational and we'd need a truly global recession to cause havoc.

Y'see, a global recession is exactly what we are looking at. The West will be hard hit, the East less so but still will suffer.

And of course, it wouldn't be like a global multinational to institute arbitrary headcount targets in the event of a recession..... Never mind, you work with proprietary technology so you'll be well placed to find a new job if this one goes belly up.


Look - I'm not saying you're going to be destitute or anything and in all probability you'll make it through a recession with job intact but you do seem to display an alarming lack of awareness as to the potential dangers of what lies ahead.

It wouldn't harm to plan for the worst and then be pleasantly surprised when it doesn't happen. Most of what you said about your job could apply to mine but I'm not kidding myself that my job is somehow secure. I well remember what it was like during the last downturn of any note in the early 90s and I'm pretty sure that what lies ahead is going to be nastier than that. Don't underestimate the effects of the stress of a recession on your personal life either.

baileysbattlebus

Definitely not a recession virgin, we had a house through the last recession and saw it's "virtual" value fall about 40%, which in itself wasn't an issue. What was an issue was that we had planned on extending the house and by the time interest rates were low enough to allow us financially to be able to borrow the extra money - the bottom had dropped out of the property market and we didn't have enough equity in the house to borrow the money from the building society.

So we sold our house for exactly what we had paid for it about 7 years earlier, £80k, it had gone up to £136k, and bought a much bigger house in a better area for £93k, which we couldn't possibly have afforded when prices were at their peak.

We lost nothing, we made nothing but we were able to buy a house we wouldn't have been able to if the "crash" hadn't happened.

If house prices fall as much as predicted, some people will be hit very hard and will lose their homes, for others, like us during the last crash, it will mean the goal posts move.

One thing that has stayed with me since the last recession, is, if interest rates go up, can you pay your mortgage if it doubled?

fc123

ringo_24601 wrote: »

I fit squarely into that group - i'm 28 and bought my first home last year (and stretched quite a bit on the mortgage). Am I worried abour a recession? Not really

My job is secure (IT consultant, secure government contracts that run till 2012) my OH's job is secure (A&E nurse). I wouldn't describe this as secure. Recession proof could be Teacher, Policeman, Fireman...assuming Govt. has enough to pay all of them also Vet maybe???

We should be able to ride it out without much problems. Count me in with the 77% not worried section. Don't assume anything but I hope you are right.

edit: I do remember lots of my friend's parents having financial problems in the late 80s, i think my parent's mortgage rate skyrocketed also

I am recession aware and it's scary.

pickles110564

!!!!!!? wrote: »

it wouldn't harm to plan for the worst and then be pleasantly surprised when it doesn't happen. Most of what you said about your job could apply to mine but I'm not kidding myself that my job is somehow secure. I well remember what it was like during the last downturn of any note in the early 90s and I'm pretty sure that what lies ahead is going to be nastier than that. Don't underestimate the effects of the stress of a recession on your personal life either.

Yawn! bout time you came up with something new

MrSafeGaz

Can't say the thought of a recession worries me in the slightest. Double edged sword for me, would enjoy the house price fall but a recession would hit my line of work quite hard Although I am confident that I would keep my job if such a thing occured!

Sounds exciting!

fc123

MrSafeGaz wrote: »

Can't say the thought of a recession worries me in the slightest. Double edged sword for me, would enjoy the house price fall but a recession would hit my line of work quite hard Although I am confident that I would keep my job if such a thing occured!

Sounds exciting!

If it's a 'Full on one', it affects different industries at different stages.
Like layers all the way down. Could take 2 or 3 years.
If it is a 'little one', it'll affect a certain ammount of sectors but then not progress to others.
I'm planning for the Big one BTW, and reckon on it getting deeper over the next 3 years....by which time, we hope to be as recession proof as possible.
But who knows??

tee_pee_2

I am not worried, we can afford our mortgage easily and husband is in a secure job ( IMHO)

our mortgage term is 15 years of which we have paid 2 yrs, so whenour fixed terms ends at the worst we would go back to 25yrs

nicola1982_2

I am a recession virgin. Don't own a house so not worried about that. Am on maternity leave for large retailer. OH also works for retailer too. Could mean redundancy, however said retailer has survived a recession before and OH is is fairly multi-skilled so fairly confident he will remain in work. I guess I would remain a full-time mum rather than work part-time and we would struggle but survive. We once lived on a student loan and entry level income so we've done it before.

IveSeenTheLight

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Yes, all very funny but while you may find it a bit of a laugh to troll this group there are people who are here looking for advice and informed opinions.

EdInvestor made some valid points, which you obviously are sticking your fingers in your ears and singing "lalalalalala"

If you are finding your mortgage payments a struggle, it would be best to contact the lendor to discuss.
You could increase your amortization period (some people only have 20 years eft and they can revert back to 25 again), this would reduce the monthly outlay.
You could go interest only, again this reduces the monthly rate but it will neve actually pay off the capital. You effectively would be renting your home from the mortgage lender
you never know, they may even allow you to pay a reduced rate for an agreed time

Even if times are hard, its not all doom and gloom.
There are many decisions that can be made, albeit some of those decisions may be hard to make.

At the end of the day, paying as much capital off as you can is always beneficial.