quick calcs

neas

Literally for every 3-5% drop I complete 1 year earlier. Love it .

Nobody truly knows what will happen I'm on 3-4 months left of my rent term... I'd be stupid not to reevaluate after I get married my house situation. I believe though I'll wait another 1 year after I get married (aiming for looking for a house sometime September 2009 towards 2010).

neas

I'd finally like to add that at the moment myself and my partner are in like super saving mode... encouraged by saving for a house... once you have a house part of that motivation will go, we wont save as much I believe... so we wont pay as much off a mortgage... human factors involved.

adr0ck

m00m00 wrote: »

and asking price drops don't feed into lower selling prices ?


12-24 months ago, it wasn't rare for property to sell for ABOVE initial asking price.

i take it you can't find any then

PasturesNew

The figures I worked out were that in 5 years' time I can buy a £200k house for £150k and have saved an additional £50k.

So waiting is like saving £100k off the price.

Buy it today: £200k
Buy it in 5 years' time and it is £150k-£50k savings = £100k

Turning a 25% drop in prices into half price

m00m00

adr0ck wrote: »

i take it you can't find any then

or I can't be bothered looking as anything I post won't fit any particular agenda.


we are talking about what COULD happen, and I've shown an example which clearly states that large drops are possible

is that house a 125k house or a 110k house ?

what decides it

Guy_Montag

Unfortunately neas, much as I like your figures they all rely on that 15% drop, which, AIUI, is purely speculative.

Don't get me wrong, I would love that to be the case, but it is just speculation.

Anyway I was going to suggest to ard0ck that BTL is yesterday's game. Two things have changes.
1) Lenders are getting twitchy about BTL mortgages, with a lot pulling out, others only lending to established landlords. Those that will lend to johnny-new-landlord are asking for significantly lower LTV's. Those seeking to raise deposits for the new purchases by remortgaging against either their PPR or other properties will find that increasingly difficult as surveyors take a more conservative view of the property market. I'm not saying that BTL won't happen, just that it will no longer be an easy game to get into, it will require planning & thought.

2) I've forgotten what this point was going to be, I suspect I may have covered it in the one above. Never mind.

tomstickland

I did some very similar sums 2 years ago when I was looking at buying. I used a savings rate of 5% and house prince inflation of 5% pa. It made no difference with those numbers whether I bought then or waited. Things are different now of course.

Gorgeous_George

It's hardly rocking horse science and the figures work great to demonstate the facts to any doubters out there.

One problem might be that in two years' time, you run the calculation again and decide to buy in 2012. Only, youo do the calculations again in 2012.

Keep waiting and one day houses will be free. A fall of 50%-ish and I will buy at least one more BTL property (assuming rental market supports the decision).

GG

Martinslovechild

Guy_Montag wrote: »

Unfortunately neas, much as I like your figures they all rely on that 15% drop, which, AIUI, is purely speculative.

Don't get me wrong, I would love that to be the case, but it is just speculation.

Presently, house prices are more than 30% above their long-term trend. Personally, it looks to me like neas is not being overly optimistic with pencilling in only a 15% drop!

Best of luck neas.

neas

Thats why i said conservative . So long as they falling saving wont be too bad ... For me i love 600 pound in mortgage capital repaid..