Prices in NI fall by 10% in one quarter

Old_Git

considering house prices in Northern Ireland have historically been low /stagnant . A fall was always on the cards after such a sharp rise.

The million dollar question is how far will they fall. I dont think they will fall to 2005 prices .

WTF?_2

Old_Git wrote: »

considering house prices in Northern Ireland have historically been low /stagnant . A fall was always on the cards after such a sharp rise.

The million dollar question is how far will they fall. I dont think they will fall to 2005 prices .

Looking at the bonkers rate of HPI in NI and comparing average incomes and prices I'd say that the 2005 price is the benchmark for prices to fall from. This report details prices at the end of 2006.

http://news.ulster.ac.uk/releases/2006/2863.html

House prices in Northern Ireland are now rising at more than 32% a year, according to the most comprehensive survey of local residential property sales. Some property types in some areas, notably Lisburn, are going up at rates of up to 65%.


The latest University of Ulster Quarterly House Price Index, produced in partnership with Bank of Ireland and the Northern Ireland Housing Executive, paints a picture of unprecedented boom times in the price of homes during the third quarter of 2006 (July to September).


The average house price now stands at £180,128 up by 32.1% on a year before and up by 11.9% over a quarter.


Everything since then has been pure speculative froth which must first be blown away before the real price drops start. Weren't Belfast prices ahead of London at the peak? Unbelievable. :eek:

leftieM

Given the credit crunch, the lack of business activity and wealth creation and the low average NI wage, house prices in Northern Ireland are extremely vulnerable to large falls in value. There appears to be an oversupply of housing too.
The old 'catching up' argument that has been used for years as a kind of vague justification for the inexplicable HPI here. Yoy house prices for NI are 15% in 2002, 6.8% in 2003, 13.4% in 2004, 22% in 2005, 37% in 2006 and 26.4% in 2007 (according to the UU reports). So you can see that we've had house price inflation far in excess of wage inflation or general economic growth for as long as 4 years, even allowing for the 'catch up' effect.

It's a pity that we couldn't see past using houses to enrich ourselves. Perhaps some of that business acumen and capital could have been used to build a sustainable business base for the country.