Prices in NI fall by 10% in one quarter

leftieM

According to the Nationwide's latest data. We now have a yoy fall in prices of 3.4% (or negative growth as it's euphemistically called.)
The quarterly falls are actually 12.4% but they have factored in seasonal adjustment to bring them up. Sales volumes appear to be very low at present which suggests that many buyers are holding out for lower prices mainly because houses are still unaffordable and they have no choice.
It looks like our crash may be as spectacular as our boom was (prices doubled in a 2 year period.)
Terrifying stuff.

mystic_trev

Yeah - It's looking pretty bad. I reckon Scotland could be the next place to see large falls.

mr.broderick

mystic_trev wrote: »

Yeah - It's looking pretty bad. I reckon Scotland could be the next place to see large falls.

Well trev you gotta be right at some point buddy...

IveSeenTheLight

mystic_trev wrote: »

Yeah - It's looking pretty bad. I reckon Scotland could be the next place to see large falls.

And this is based on what? How much you think it could wind up people?

Looking at the link LeftieM placed, it would appear Scotland as a whole dropped 0.1% in the last quarter.
comparing that to other regions: -

Scotland -0.1%
Wales -1.8%
Northern Ireland -10%
London -1.5%
England -1.6%

So factually, Scotland has shown the most stable house prices in the last quarter.
Scotland is still factually a very cheap place to buy a property.
I'm guessing there will be a small drop, probably more like a perios of stagnation in Scotland, although of course, different areas in Scotland like the UK will be affected differently

Laughing_Man_2

I think mystic's point is that the rises in scotland are no more sustainable than they have been anywhere else. Therefore they will fall at some unspecified point in the near future. He is not disputing that HAVE risen, or that they are now FALLING at the LOWEST RATE, he is merely extrapolating a likley future trend, albeit a somewhat obvious one.

There is a wider point to make here, in my view, the bears have not been 'wrong' for all this time and are now only 'right' in the sense that a stopped clock is. The bear position- or at least the one I maintained- was always only that the boom was driven by unnaturally cheap credit and speculation, and that for this reason the rises were unsustainable. This was true from 2003 onwards, the fact the boom managed to run for five years really only proves that a bubble can be pumped up a long way.

THE BEARS WERE RIGHT ALL THE DAMN TIME, THE WHOLE WAY. THE BULLS DIDN'T GET THAT THE ARGUMENT WAS NOT ABOUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED, OR IS HAPPENING, BUT THE SUSTAINABILITY OF A CREDIT BUBBLE.

m00m00

for those interested in the NI market

http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/PropertynewsNI/05.04.08.php

epz_2

i would be more interested in seeing the breakdown of wages to mortgage debt by area.

house prices are lower in scotland but there is near unlimited space space, a static/dropping population, wages are a lot lower(1), thay are building more social housing and its not had to get so btl aint as hot a prospect.

oh and the real kicker, stuff that is going up in price at an alarming rate of knots like petrol/food will be a much higher proportion of peoples income.

prices have tripled for no other reason than the banks lent out lots of cash, banks ain't lending so daft prices arent sustainable.

(1) and almost entirely dependant on government spending which will start dropping in a recession as they have p! ssed away all the money they had on giant tents and massive pay rises for no productivity gains.

tara747

As a potential FTB living in NI, watching the unfolding crash with fascination and keeping my savings close to my chest, can I just say...

WWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

Best news I've heard in ages!

Sorry to any OOs in negative equity, obviously I do not take pleasure in that at all. As for the speculators who messed up the whole housing market in NI, hard luck!

EdInvestor

It would be interesting to see the overall figures for the last few years with the NI distortion excluded. They might show that prices in many other parts of the UK have not moved up much at all - and will likely not move down much either.

Datasafe_2

EdInvestor wrote: »

It would be interesting to see the overall figures for the last few years with the NI distortion excluded.

Is it really a distortion? Or more likely a trend to be repeated in mainland uk?

They might show that prices in many other parts of the UK have not moved up much at all - and will likely not move down much either.

You hope.

WTF?_2

EdInvestor wrote: »

It would be interesting to see the overall figures for the last few years with the NI distortion excluded. They might show that prices in many other parts of the UK have not moved up much at all - and will likely not move down much either.

Total population of NI is about 1.5million. About the size of Glasgow, Sheffield and Bradford put together. So not likely to be a huge glitch in the UK figures.

Mind you, even if NI did represent a significant 'distortion' it's strange how no-one in the property ramping business complained about its effect during the years when prices were going up and everyone and their dog was being encouraged to take on a monster sized mortgage on those grounds...... :rolleyes: