Comments welcome on this portfolio:

john_kane_2

current 'Bandwagon'

ive been following and invested this for over a year via spreadbetting. look at the returns since the turn of the millenium, its not:

only recently has even a very small part of what they have long been predicting started to happen.

its only the media who have finally cottoned on to it (obviously trigger big correction when the masses start reading about it). the correction was superb imo, hopefully will keep the masses away for quite a while longer.

as nick points out, i have £100k in cash and £20k will be in these funds. hopefully ill get this amount up to £50k by the end of the year by which time hopefully developed equities will be starting to bottom.

US, UK and Japan have no upside and a lot of downside. Commodities and emerging markets also have these downsides, but also actually have a lot of upside.

All I'm saying is that there is still growth left in these 'sexy' funds as you call them and the writedowns in the developed markets have only just begun.

thus why the 80% id usually have in developed equities are in cash.

all imo

john

meester

john_kane wrote: »

as nick points out, i have £100k in cash and £20k will be in these funds. hopefully ill get this amount up to £50k by the end of the year by which time hopefully developed equities will be starting to bottom.

I do hope you don't mean you are planning to grow your money by 150%. The only way to do this is to take a flight to Las Vegas and stick it on red.

You seem to be convinced you have the power to predict the future and call bottoms, well in that case you don't need any advice.

Browntrout_2

nicko33 wrote: »

even the 74% of his assets he's holding in cash?

yes most definitely holding cash is not an investment!
holding cash will give a real rate of return of 0%
What if the S&P 500 rises 10%?

debbie42

meester wrote: »

The only way to do this is to take a flight to Las Vegas and stick it on red.

I think poker is more John's game, so it's hardly surprising he's apparently being so risky in his outlook.

He was (IMO, of course!) showing quite a grounded attitude towards the windfall associated with his poker playing in another thread. A fair amount of people may have given up the idea of a "real" job, and carried on playing and potentially lost the lot.

john_kane_2

firstly sorry my last post reads a bit decisive, i was posting in a break during my accountancy lecture and the break came to an end before i could reread it so i had to quickly hit the 'post' button.

as for the portfolio, i fail to see exactly how this is risky. i am keeping £100k in savings. i will be putting £20k in commodity funds. the worst case scenario be these funds drop by 50%. so overall, i am down 8% overall. the MSCI world index has had a 17% swing from it's 52 week high to low.

admittedly though each month i will be putting more money into commodities, but by the end of the year i hope equities will be looking good value. i fully understand the concern about fashion investing. i was depressed when i saw the headlines about gold hitting $1k. i thought 'joe bloggs now wants to invest in gold, bang goes the easy money/here comes the correction', same when agriculture hit the headlines earlier this year. if it werent for the recent correction, i wouldnt be investing, but i think this is a good opportunity and will make joe bloggs wary of investing in commodities for a fair bit longer. gold will bubble, agriculture fundamentally looks strong but will go through increasing volatility, oil is already overpriced. all just imo from what i read. also i think in 12 months time, joe bloggs, reading about all the further write downs and falling stock markets will finally sell even more (already buying has slowed down a lot i believe) and then we'll have the best buying opportunity.

I do hope you don't mean you are planning to grow your money by 150%.

no sorry i meant my monthly income ill be putting in. im looking for gains of 40-45% in gold, 15%-20% in agriculture.

just i feel i have enough in savings for a house, holiday, and i have monthly income so i shouldnt have a problem with monthly expenditure. with the remaining money i feel i can take this high risk play.

thanks a lot for all your replies so far, and further thoughts greatly appreciated.

john