Nationwide March -0.60%

m00m00

attitudes to house prices in the uk have taken on a dogmatic aspect, and those are incredibly difficult to shift through arguments from a rational or evidential viewpoint, as the dogma 'wall' is incredibly strong.

fischer79

attitudes to house prices crashes in the uk have taken on an apocalyptic evangelical aspect, and those are incredibly difficult to shift through arguments.

meanmachine_2

If you think about it, and looking at how the big lenders are behaving now, it's all quite obvious really.

NRock went from being a piddly little building society to the UK's 5th largest mortgage bank in under 10 years.

To do that it must have been hoovering up collosal amounts of new business. Haven't got the stats to hand, but let's say it was snaffling a quarter of all new mortgages.

Anecdotally it was winning 100% of FTBer business, if my mates are anything to go by...

After property achieved "fair value" around 2001, prices kept going up. Why? Cos one lender kept chucking money into the system. Northern Rock.

N Rock drove prices up - by conservative estimates Uk houses are around 25% overvalued and its demise could bring prices back down again.

Only fitting, isn't it?

If anyone does have figures regarding the % of new mortgage lending N Rock was winning before it went kaput, that would be v useful.

I suspect that figure will be the exact % that house prices will correct by in the coming months and years. Spooky, eh?

WTF?_2

si-mate wrote: »

Makes me a little happier that my purchase has just fallen through. Hopefully in 10 days time we should have the equity from our sale in our bank and moved into a rented house.

Congrats. Though it was partially luck, you've just landed on your feet by cashing in on your equity near the peak of an unprecedented housing boom :j

Now, find yourself a decent place to rent (which your interest should mostly or even entirely cover) and enjoy the show as you see the house purchasing power of your stash of cash rocket over the next few years. Be sure to pick a place whose landlord is actually a professional so you don't face the prospect of being turfed out of a BTL repossession though.

You will look back on this as a very, very lucky break. It's not often that life gives us good luck so enjoy it to the max.

moneysavinmonkey

meanmachine wrote: »

If you think about it, and looking at how the big lenders are behaving now, it's all quite obvious really.

NRock went from being a piddly little building society to the UK's 5th largest mortgage bank in under 10 years.

To do that it must have been hoovering up collosal amounts of new business. Haven't got the stats to hand, but let's say it was snaffling a quarter of all new mortgages.

Anecdotally it was winning 100% of FTBer business, if my mates are anything to go by...

After property achieved "fair value" around 2001, prices kept going up. Why? Cos one lender kept chucking money into the system. Northern Rock.

N Rock drove prices up - by conservative estimates Uk houses are around 25% overvalued and its demise could bring prices back down again.

Only fitting, isn't it?

If anyone does have figures regarding the % of new mortgage lending N Rock was winning before it went kaput, that would be v useful.

I suspect that figure will be the exact % that house prices will correct by in the coming months and years. Spooky, eh?

i seem to remember at the time it folded northern rock was reported as having a 1/5 of mortgage lending.. will see if i can dig out a source though.

moneysavinmonkey

actually i wasn't quite right... it was the 5th biggest mortgage lender, and in the 6 months to July 2007 had just increased it's market share to 9.7%.....

see: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article2141320.ece

quite an interesting article to go back and read, particularly the quotes from adam applegarth given that in less than 6 months from when it was published there had been the first bank run for 50 years and the bank had been nationalised :eek:

pinkshoes

RHemmings wrote: »

You can sell the house now, and buy it or a similar property post-crash.

Think of it this way. If there was a bank account that would give you negative interest rates for the next ten years (so that your principle amount went down), then reverted to CPI, so that in 27 years, the amount in the account would be worth more than it is now, would you put or leave your money in that account? Or would you move it somewhere else in the meantime until the interest on the other account changed to positive.

I like my home and don't want to live in rented accomodation. It sucks. Been there, done it, hated it, never want to do it again. Besides, my rent would be £150 more than my mortgage interest.

Buying in the centre of Oxford isn't easy, especially when you want 2 decent sized double bedrooms, and 2 parking spaces! If prices crash, every man and his dog will be after buying property, so I would risk not being able to find something suitable!

Nah, there's more to life than money. I'm very happy and have a lovely home, and that's not worth risking for any amount of money.:p

If I do move in 3 to 10 years time, it will be leaving the UK, so keeping the property would mean I'd have a base to come back to one day, should I want to.

dannyboycey

pinkshoes wrote: »

don't want to live in rented accomodation. It sucks.

That's a 'Daily Mail-esque' sweeping generalisation if ever I heard one.

meanmachine_2

moneysavinmonkey wrote: »

actually i wasn't quite right... it was the 5th biggest mortgage lender, and in the 6 months to July 2007 had just increased it's market share to 9.7%.....

see: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/property_and_mortgages/article2141320.ece

quite an interesting article to go back and read, particularly the quotes from adam applegarth given that in less than 6 months from when it was published there had been the first bank run for 50 years and the bank had been nationalised :eek:

Interesting. And scary at the same time.

So that's my prediction then. Between August 07 and Aug 08 prices will be 9.7% lower.

Beyond that, who knows? That's when sentiment/political meddling/panic sets in

m00m00

NR might have had a 9.7% share of all mortgages, but I 'm sure it was a closer to 25% share of FTB, and an even higher share of the 100% and greater mortgages.