There will not be a crash

adr0ck

stonethrower wrote: »

That may have been True at one time when most of Japanes houses were wooden but not any more.

still true

The_Dangerman

dannyboycey wrote: »

It sounds like you're trying to convince yourself here. Personally, there is no doubt in my mind that prices are crashing now. I have found countless pieces of evidence to substantiate my personal view and little if no evidence to provide a feasable counter argument.

Ha! You'd like to believe that, wouldn't you?

I came here because I think my mother has been mis-sold PPI, and this thread caught my eye. I'm not in the slightest bit concered that house prices are going to crash, because they aren't, and they won't. In fact, I think it's a great time to buy and will be looking to buy more this year (if the price is right ;-) )

Sisyphus

The_Dangerman wrote: »

Ha! You'd like to believe that, wouldn't you?

I came here because I think my mother has been mis-sold PPI, and this thread caught my eye. I'm not in the slightest bit concered that house prices are going to crash, because they aren't, and they won't. In fact, I think it's a great time to buy and will be looking to buy more this year (if the price is right ;-) )

Pssst!

Do you want to buy a bridge?

SquatNow

Technically it's a housing PYRAMID not a ladder.

Please stop calling it a "ladder" as that is grossly missleading.

geoffky

dangermouse...you dont seem to be to clever do you? or is it just the way you come across...ps crash is happening right here right now with 40% off houses in the north west....i am sat here while houses are falling in value while my bank account goes up very nicely,,,,if you dont think we are in crash mode i would not trust you to look after my dog let alone my wealth..

dannyboycey

The_Dangerman wrote: »

I think it's a great time to buy and will be looking to buy more this year

Stop it!! :rotfl::rotfl:

The_Dangerman

geoffky wrote: »

dangermouse...you dont seem to be to clever do you? or is it just the way you come across...ps crash is happening right here right now with 40% off houses in the north west....i am sat here while houses are falling in value while my bank account goes up very nicely,,,,if you dont think we are in crash mode i would not trust you to look after my dog let alone my wealth..

Yes, I'm a complete dunce! I'm a higher rate tax payer, drive a Porsche, have a large property portfolio...... geez where did I go wrong? Oh and I'm 23 ;-)

I didn't want to get personal, but meh, what the heck?!

The_Dangerman

dannyboycey wrote: »

Stop it!! :rotfl::rotfl:

Why? If desperation is so common, apparently, then there will be lots of people willing to sell at knock down prices.

geoffky

Unwanted flats legacy of buy-to-let boom

Richard Pendlebury, Daily Mail
20 March 2008 Reader comments (4) | Quiz | Video | Guide | [URL="javascript:PopUp('you_popup','http://img.thisismoney.co.uk/calculators/house-price-crash-calculator.html',500,650,1,0);"]Calculate[/URL]
Apartment 502 in a 'luxury' new-build block in Ipswich's Anchor Street is something of a legend in the UK property auction world.

When it was first sold in June 2006, it went for £268,000. Three months ago, it was back on the market as a mortgage repossession. The hammer price was £133,000. Anchor Street was what one expert calls 'a worst case scenario'. But countless other new-build apartments stand empty across Britain's crane-filled urban skylines. Meanwhile, a host of inexperienced investor landlords wring their hands in anguish.
The technical term for this phenomenon is a 'market correction'. But whatever the euphemistic description, the mood at the annual Home And Property Investor exhibition in London's Docklands earlier this month was a little more muted than of old.
Thousands attended the showcase for the buy-to-let market which, over the past decade, has revolutionised middle class investment habits and changed the landscape of Britain's cities.
As property prices seemed on an ever upward curve and interest rates remained low, many people thought about buying another property to rent out.
With many pensions in doubt, it seemed to make sense to have a bricks and mortar nest egg.
In fact, for the first time, the number of UK mortgages on buy-to-let properties has just risen above the onem mark. Ten years ago, there were only 29,000.
The classic buy-to-let is a newbuild, two-bedroom flat. According to the latest figures, the total outstanding UK buy-to-let debt is some £122bn .
That is the equivalent of the Gross National Product of South Africa. The figure is astounding.
But it also represents a huge and vulnerable financial bubble which, after years of growth and months of warnings, finally seems to be bursting.
'The herd instinct has been very strong,' says David Sandeman, whose company Essential Information Group compiles property auction data from across the country.
'There has been a very [URL="javascript:self.name='main';PopUp('you_popup','/pages/jargon/index.html?in_jargon_term=bull market','350','150')"]bull market[/URL] and a lot of dinner party peer pressure to follow suit and get into buy-to-let. Your friends are making a mint - why shouldn't you?
'People thought they were going to make some easy money. But the blip has happened very quickly and now a lot of people have found themselves caught in a financial vice. Repossessions are rising and we are seeing a sometimes terrifying drop in price at the subsequent auctions.'
Alan Ward, of the Residential Landlords Association (RLA), adds, sardonically: 'Some buyers would have been better off investing in Northern Rock.'

The_Dangerman

Paul_N wrote: »

LOL. So house price inflation falling from 4.2% to 2.7% is now called rising house prices? You need to understand how year on year figures work. What nationwide is telling you here is that if you bought the average property in the UK in February 2007, it would now be worth 2.7% more, a year later. I'd rather have my money in a savings account.

The average house price is falling and has been since around October 2007. That's why the year on year HPI has dropped from about 8% to 2.7%. Because we had positive growth from February 2007 to Spetember(ish) 2007, and negative growth since. Add up all the positives and negatives and you get 2.7%. A couple more months of negative growth, or stagnation at best, and that 2.7% will be down to 0% or below.

I'll let you into a secret on how it works.

You have 20k, in a top rate savings account paying 6.5%. In 5 years you make £5769 after tax.

I put £20k as a deposit, into a house worth £100k with the rent covering the £80k mortgage. Even at 2.7%, the I will make £14,248 Over the longer term, 4% is easily achievable making it more like £21,665 over 5 years, compared to £5769 in a savings account. And then, before the 5 years is up, the rent is turning a profit, so add that into the mix, too.

I think I will stick to the house, thanks.

Obviously that is VERY simplistic, but gives you an idea.