There will not be a crash

IveSeenTheLight

Markyt wrote: »

I think there were 3 years of drops altogether - 2 drops, one year flat / slightly up, then another drop before the rise began again.

True, of course house prices can go up as well as down

AMILLIONDOLLARS

mustrum_ridcully wrote: »

House prices falling at fastest rate for 30 years anyone?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=559735&in_page_id=1770&ct=5

Three bed in Greater London 30 years ago ave £90k and now £300k, who's panicking?!!:rolleyes:

AMD

carolt

Old_Git wrote: »

if there is a crash ,how far will prices fall .
Will they go back to 2005 ,or 2000 prices .

Too vague. Just as prices have not risen equally, they will not fall equally. I think nearly all experts are agreed prices will fall hardest in inner-city new-build flats. Obviously there was no 2000 price available on those flats, as they weren't built then! In some areas, where prices have risen least, falls might just take prices back a couple of years. In other areas, like Nottingham, I believe, house prices have been largely static or falling since 2005/6 anyway, so presumably a crash would have a different impact there to what it would have in area where prices were still climbing steeply.

Can anyone dig out what the average UK (Nationwide or somesuch) figures were for 2000 and 2005, compared to the present?

Personally, I expect the market in my area to bottom out at around 40% falls, to bring it in line with normal income multiples. Could be more, if the economy really goes down the pan, or less if high inflation means salaries catch up with house prices instead of the reverse. Afraid I can't tell you whether that takes us back to 2000 or 2005 or whatever, though, as can't be bothered to research average prices for those years for my area.

Oh well. Time will tell.

neverdespairgirl

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I've read somewhere before that it took 7/8 years to recover from the "crash" in 1990
So if history repeats itself, you would be looking at approx 4 years of price drops before it climbs again.

More like 10 - 12 years to recover.

poppy10_2

carolt wrote: »

Can anyone dig out what the average UK (Nationwide or somesuch) figures were for 2000 and 2005, compared to the present?

According to Nationwide, average house prices were:

1996 £51,367
2000 £77,698
2004 £140,225
2008 £179,363

1996 was when the boom started; there hasn't been a year-on-year drop in house prices since 1996.

Average house prices have risen by 250% in the last 12 years. In contrast average incomes have risen by only 57%.

Source: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm

tomstickland

From that Daily Hate Mail article

Prices will fall but if you can't get a mortgage then that's no use to anyone - I presume those who couldn't afford to buy before still won't be able to afford it.

If noone can get a mortgage then prices will keep falling until they can afford it.

daunker

poppy10 wrote: »

According to Nationwide, average house prices were:

1996 £51,367
2000 £77,698
2004 £140,225
2008 £179,363

1996 was when the boom started; there hasn't been a year-on-year drop in house prices since 1996.

Average house prices have risen by 250% in the last 12 years. In contrast average incomes have risen by only 57%.

Source: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm

Those figures work out, that house prices have been rising steadily at 10% annual growth over that period. That doesn't sound as dramatic as 250%. The "house price crash" is a massive sensationalisation by the media and those with vested interests.

The fact is that they are mostly praying for a price crash so they themselves can buy a property. There is considerable demand, any drop in prices will therefore be tempered. Provided the property you are looking at is in a decent area I think the downside will be limited. I think now is an excellent time to buy a property because of the fear factor you can negotiate discounts which I believe property will not actually reach.

TTMCMschine

daunker wrote: »

Those figures work out, that house prices have been rising steadily at 10% annual growth over that period. That doesn't sound as dramatic as 250%. The "house price crash" is a massive sensationalisation by the media and those with vested interests.

The fact is that they are mostly praying for a price crash so they themselves can buy a property. There is considerable demand, any drop in prices will therefore be tempered. Provided the property you are looking at is in a decent area I think the downside will be limited. I think now is an excellent time to buy a property because of the fear factor you can negotiate discounts which I believe property will not actually reach.

Where do you people come up with your crazy ideas?

Of course people want to be able to afford to buy a house, its called a home - its where you live. You'll be suggesting next that the people moaning about rising food prices have a vested interest in wanting something to eat. How selfish.

The mere attempt at defending higher asset prices, when you yourself are a consumer, simply shows that you are a few slices short of a loaf, maybe not such a bad thing considering the price of wheat these days.

Of course the other problem, apart from people not wanting to buy & end up with negative equity, with buying houses right now is actually getting your hands on the money. If you haven't got 20%+ of some stupidly inflated £figure then you CANT buy, so rather than being "considerable demand" as you suggest, I believe that you'll find that there is virtually "zero demand," & consequently rather than being an "excellent time to buy" it is in fact an "incredibly stupid time to buy."

In fact come to think of it you sound like you have a vested interest - come on now, which are you, an estate agent or a rapidly sinking "property investment "expert"?"

tomstickland

prices have been rising steadily at 10% annual growth over that period. That doesn't sound as dramatic as 250%.

It sounds just as dramatic, because it's the same thing.

The "house price crash" is a massive sensationalisation by the media and those with vested interests.

We'll wait and see on that one.

The fact is that they are mostly praying for a price crash so they themselves can buy a property. There is considerable demand, any drop in prices will therefore be tempered.

The housing market doesn't work like a basic, logical supply-demand system. It has people in it who act based on feelings. If prices are dropping they will wait for them to fall before buying and in doing so causing the market to fall.

neverdespairgirl

daunker wrote: »

Those figures work out, that house prices have been rising steadily at 10% annual growth over that period. That doesn't sound as dramatic as 250%.

Actually, 10% per year for over a decade sounds pretty dramatic to me. Incomes haven't exactly gone up 10% a year, have they?