There will not be a crash

carolt

Because this originally started off as an anti-crash thread, and therefore circumvented the 'rules'.

And because any thread on house buying/prices inevitably comes down to a crash v no crash discussion, as it's not as though you could consider buying a house (ie the most expensive purchase you'll ever make) whilst utterly ignoring the current state of the market and its future direction...whatever the moderators would like to believe... :rolleyes:

pickles110564

poppy10 wrote: »

when if they waited a few years they could have bought a 3-bed house in a nicer area for the same money understand now? :A

How rich are you then?
Must be mega rich with that gleaming crystal ball you have.
You have no more than a guess than anyone else with what will be happening in 6 months time let alone 3 years:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

moft100 says they have thought very carefully, done all the sums and they will be fine.
Stop being bitter and twisted and wish them a very happy future in their HOME.

mystic_trev

I agree that it's to early to call where the Property market is heading, but Prices look to be Static (at best) for 2008. Nationwide have now revised their expectations and have said prices will drop by 5% this year. It will be interesting to see their latest figures which are released this Friday.

Next week (2nd April) we will have the BofE mortgage approvals for February. Anything below 72,000 will show the market to be in a pretty dire state.

dannyboycey

mystic_trev wrote: »

I agree that it's to early to call where the Property market is heading, but Prices look to be Static (at best) for 2008. Nationwide have now revised their expectations and have said prices will drop by 5% this year. It will be interesting to see their latest figures which are released this Friday.

Next week (2nd April) we will have the BofE mortgage approvals for February. Anything below 72,000 will show the market to be in a pretty dire state.

Nationwide are notoriously over-optimistic anyway, and the fact that they are giving a negative figure speaks volumes about what we can expect in reality.

It's important to stress that statistics don't always give a clear view of what's going on though as they are so easily manipulated or skewed by extremes in data. For example, I read recently that house prices have dropped by 10% in the US in 1 year - but we have seen many houses in the US that have had 70-80% of their value wiped away!

Here in the UK, the rate at which mortgage products are being pulled from the shelves is astounding. Many companies now offering just 95% maximum LTV and many more 90% - This will force people to hold off buying for a bit and save bigger deposits. In my opinion this can only be a good thing as it'll force prices down and ultimately mean there will be less people getting into financial difficulties a few years down the line. These measures may seem drastic, but they are really just a return to 'normality' and sensible lending procedures. (that is until next time, when the whole episode repeats again, ad infinitum )

Lotus-eater

green1970 wrote: »

When this Utopia of cheap houses for everyone finally arrives, bearing in mind we seem to be a nation of wannabe property magnates now faith in pensions is shattered, what is going to stop those prices going sky high again? Demand is going to massively overstrip supply surely and First Time buyers are going to be last in the queue to buy this abundant supply of 3-bed houses in lovely areas unless something is done about multi-property ownership.

I'll have a guess.
The smart money will come back in when they can make good money. I'm guessing alot of the really smart money knows already that they have had their day with making huge amounts of money in property and will be looking for the next thing.

The smart money that followed the really smart money into the property boom, will be waiting with money in the bank for bargains to come along. When they think that they will make a profit on short or long term investment they will buy when they think the market has come close to bottom.

The amateur property investor if he believes in a crash, will be waiting with baited breath for bargains, the thing I think will change is that while 6 months ago he would have been rubbing his hands at the thought of all the capital gains he has amassed, he is now wondering if there is a future continuing in property. As prices drop the general air about the property market will turn sour, it will no longer be free money.
Of course if he doesn't believe there will be a crash he will be picking up perceived bargains now.

A total generalisation, there are property experts that can of course still make money in a downturn and will continue to buy.

Pez2

green1970 wrote: »

When this Utopia of cheap houses for everyone finally arrives, bearing in mind we seem to be a nation of wannabe property magnates now faith in pensions is shattered, what is going to stop those prices going sky high again? Demand is going to massively overstrip supply surely and First Time buyers are going to be last in the queue to buy this abundant supply of 3-bed houses in lovely areas unless something is done about multi-property ownership.

If a major crash comes along then the papers will be awash with stories of BTL investors getting repossed or going bankrupt. Everyone down the pub will have stories about a friend of a friend who lost a bundle on property. All the property !!!!!! shows on TV will be pulled. If such circumstances come to pass then you can guarantee that 90% of the people who currently believe you can't lose on property will instead believe that property is too risky, and all the amateur investors will move on to the next investment fad, whatever that may be (remember the dotcom bubble?).

Laughing_Man_2

pickles110564 wrote: »

How rich are you then?
Must be mega rich with that gleaming crystal ball you have.
You have no more than a guess than anyone else with what will be happening in 6 months time let alone 3 years:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

moft100 says they have thought very carefully, done all the sums and they will be fine.
Stop being bitter and twisted and wish them a very happy future in their HOME.

Totally, you might as well speculate on red or black at the roulette wheel- because we have absolutely no information about the international credit markets, or similar bubble housing markets in other parts of the world or a wealth of historic information from which to extrapolate a likely future trend.

The idea that we do is so preposterous that it requires three of those bloody rolling smileys to adequately convey the contempt any reasonably informed person should feel about such an idea.

Oh wait...

thegibdog

GavP wrote: »

If a major crash comes along then the papers will be awash with stories of BTL investors getting repossed or going bankrupt. Everyone down the pub will have stories about a friend of a friend who lost a bundle on property. All the property !!!!!! shows on TV will be pulled. If such circumstances come to pass then you can guarantee that 90% of the people who currently believe you can't lose on property will instead believe that property is too risky, and all the amateur investors will move on to the next investment fad, whatever that may be (remember the dotcom bubble?).

BTL investors are already being reposessed where we are. Having bought up the block of flats we are currently renting in for £130k+ each they found that the rents weren't enough to cover their mortgages. Currently one is sold STC listed at £85k, one is for sale at £95k and another is going to auction with a guide price of £80-85k. :shocked:

meanmachine_2

I agree, these national indexes are total nonsense.

I looked at a flat the other day that had gone from 275K to 265K to £250K in three weeks.

Rightmove's index, for instance, would only have picked up on that initial 275K listing, so its figures are - and will always be - wildly optimistic.

And I see mortgage approvals have come through today at a dismal 43K.

Now *that* tallies with my real experience on the ground.

FTBers treated like lords and lots of sellers out there prepared to take a hit of more than 10% on asking price.

If you have to buy, and can get the finance, then do it now.

If you can afford to sit it out, sit it out. You'll be laughing by the summer.

meanmachine_2

green1970 wrote: »

When this Utopia of cheap houses for everyone finally arrives, bearing in mind we seem to be a nation of wannabe property magnates now faith in pensions is shattered, what is going to stop those prices going sky high again? Demand is going to massively overstrip supply surely and First Time buyers are going to be last in the queue to buy this abundant supply of 3-bed houses in lovely areas unless something is done about multi-property ownership.

You're in cloud cuckoo land. Or rather you have been for the last 6 months.

I'm guessing you haven't watched a news programme or read a real newspaper since August.

Google "credit crunch" and educate yourself. Then come back here and post something that is the product of actual research rather than hackneyed, lazy cliches.

What is to stop house prices going sky high again? Hmm, let me think. Er, well, where do you normally go to get a mortgage. A b-a-n-k.

What's happend to b-a-n-k-s since August?

How many mortage products have been pulled since last august?

Erm...1? 3? 3,000? Again, do the research.