There will not be a crash

motch

Dangerman - I think most people can't afford Holidays abroad, eating out on a regular basis, flash TV's but have been able to afford them through -Debt- ie credit cards and loans.

Gorgeous_George

The_Dangerman wrote: »

If prices really are falling then I will welcome that to give me chance to increase the yield on future BLT investments./quote]

Now that could be a good investment. mmmmmmmmm!


GG

Lotus-eater

motch wrote: »

the banks are desperate to keep their cash due to the credit crunch and desperately trying to keep solvent, biggest banking crisis for many many a year coming our way....

Or maybe this is because of the rumour last week and they don't want folk to whip their savings out in a hurry.

edit, OK just realised the times are wrong for this

The_Dangerman

strongboes wrote: »

If you cant understand the significance of this, then this is probably part of the reason why you are struggling to grasp the situation unfolding before all of our eyes in the housing market.

Ha, you think I'm going to take the evidance of ONE person who's UNCLE has been told he must keep to the T+Cs of a savings account that is evidance of a HPC? Nah, don't buy that one!

My point was that it is simply not relevant considering BILLIONS of pounds were advanced by the banks in February for new house loans.

motch

strongboes wrote: »

If you cant understand the significance of this, then this is probably part of the reason why you are struggling to grasp the situation unfolding before all of our eyes in the housing market.

i'm with strongboes on this one.

smigger1979

"Whilst a 3.5% rise is not keeping up with inflation, it will cover rises in essential goods. Rent, food, heating"


Since the start of the year, Npower has put prices up for its electricity customers by 12.7% and gas prices rose by 17.2%. EDF put up electricity tariffs by 7.9% and gas prices by 12.9%. British Gas increased gas and electricity prices by 15%. Scottish Power increased gas bills by 15% and electricity bills by 14%, and E.On put up gas bills by 15% and electricity tariffs by 9.7%.

I wish I could be bothered to poke holes in your other arguments. You seem a reasonable enough person but you really don't know what you're talking about.

The_Dangerman

smigger1979 wrote: »

"Whilst a 3.5% rise is not keeping up with inflation, it will cover rises in essential goods. Rent, food, heating"


Since the start of the year, Npower has put prices up for its electricity customers by 12.7% and gas prices rose by 17.2%. EDF put up electricity tariffs by 7.9% and gas prices by 12.9%. British Gas increased gas and electricity prices by 15%. Scottish Power increased gas bills by 15% and electricity bills by 14%, and E.On put up gas bills by 15% and electricity tariffs by 9.7%.

I wish I could be bothered to poke holes in your other arguments. You seem a reasonable enough person but you really don't know what you're talking about.

If you spend 100% of your income on heating, then no, it won't keep up with heating. But do you spend 100% of your income on heating? No. So you are looking at a 15% rise on maybe 7%* of expenditure. So yes, it will take a bigger propotion of income, hence why I say people will make cutbacks elsewhere.

*Yes, plucked out of the air, since we all spend a varying amount of income on heating its impossible to put an exact percentage on it.

strongboes

Another point which I don't have time to go deeply into right now, is that we have all this wealth created by our property bubble, the problem is that this money doesn't really exist.

To put this really very very simply, lets assume a country has only 100 residents, and they each have £100 each. Now lets assume a world bank lends them all £100 each at 50% interest rate. How long does it take for the country to owe more than is actually available in paper currency in the country?

If they originally all invested some of the extra £100 in property, doubling the value lets pretend, all seems fine except that they have to make interest payments to repay their loan. some do and others don't and are forced to sell, this results in the property market crashing back to original levels. Except the country as a whole, and some of it's inhabitants are now much worse off than if they had not taken the loan. Also the government thought that the good times could never end and so they also borrowed during the good times instead of saving and fixing the leaky roof as cameron put it. Can you see where this is going?

This is actually what happens in the world and is happening right now. Lend money then leverage it a bit, get everyone hooked then leverage it a bit more. Now call in your margin and see what happens to the value of peoples assets.

There are many books you can read on this subject.

snarffie

motch wrote: »

i'm with strongboes on this one.

So you think that there is a POLICY within Halifax to hold back its customers savings? Are you serious?

Is there a movement on this website to start another negative HSBOS rumour!? :rotfl:

Maybe I should tell my gf to transfer her regular savings away from them before they steal it. I hope her monthly mortgage transfer from Halifax will be allowed this month. Maybe they'll keep it to themselves! :rolleyes:


In all seriousness, isn't it more likely to be that his 'uncle' is either bound by the terms of his account, or victim of some error, which frankly, he should get sorted.

Paul_N_4

The_Dangerman wrote: »

First of all I think you misunderstood, I said rent comes second to food, but my poor explanation probably caused that, so I apologise to that. Food, shelter, warmth, in that order, are we agreed?

Second, where did I say I owned "flats"? So we can both make wrong assumptions

I thought I specifically said BTLs, but you're right a "flat" did slip in their by mistake. Not quite on the scale of mistakingly believing most people in this country have had good pay rises this year.

Third, you're really suggesting "most" people can't afford ANY luxuries whatsoever? No nights out, no holidays, no tvs, NOTHING? I respectfully disagree.

Of course some people can afford luxuries. What you fail to understand is the cross section of society. There are some people that can afford to cut down on luxuries. There are some people that have already cut down on luxuries and thus have to cut down on other things, such as fuel costs (wear a jumper as you say). Then there are some people that don't buy luxuries, are already wearing jumpers, and can't afford to cut down on anything else. Its the percentage of people who can't manage to cut their costs over the next few months and years that will have the impact on the economy, that will decide such things as average house prices, rents charged etc. The bigger the number of people, the bigger the impact on many things that cost money including house prices.

Fouthly. Whilst a 3.5% rise is not keeping up with inflation, it will cover rises in essential goods. Rent, food, heating. But to make up the shortfall "unnecessary" expenditure will be cut. Perhaps "unnecessary" expenditure is a better phrase to use? Luxury can mean different things to different people. My luxuries would be different to someone elses, for example.

Last I heard food bills are up. Fuel bills are up. Despite this, rents are going to jump as well? If you're sure rents are going to climb, go ahead and raise your rents. If you can get more, go get more. But I think you'll find you'll get only what people are willing and able to pay. A few posts back some people suggested you had problems understanding what real supply and real demand is, so I don't expect you to see how that works.

Might I also suggest that your posts have an air of 'I'm alright Jack' attitude to them, and my observation is that you fail to acknowledge a world outside your own comfortable one. This may go some way to explaining why you're receiving some hostile reactions. Its hard to keep a polite discussion with someone like you.

Now I've missed too much of The Colour Of Magic. :mad: