Low offers is the way to go

yvonnechristina

Alot of experts are now predicting that prices may well fall...see following article.

http://www.thisismoney.com/20041029/nm84067.html

Cautious_Ben

Lastly the recent drop in house prices IMHO is becuase of :
a) scaremongering
b) the autumn /winter dip. If you look at past trends the price and quantity of sales dips every year at this particular time

Dougk
do you have statistics to back up the claim of past trends as the way I understand it in the last 15 years going back to 1989 to include the last crash there have been only 5 Octobers where there have been price falls.
5 out of 15 hardly seems a trend.

dougk_2

Cautious_Ben

My "trends" came from the historical data on upmystreet.com When entering several postcodes (different parts of the country) Most years over the autumn/winter period a drop or levelling in prices is shown.  Certainly in the two area's I have lived over the past 10 years this hads been the case.

Any estate agent will tell you autumn/winter is not the best time to sell a house!

I don't see how a house price crash is good for anyone apart from FTB's. If people go into negative equity etc etc they will have far less money to spend on everything else stunting growth as a whole.
Houses are only worth what people are willing to pay for them.

cattie

Dougk
do you have statistics to back up the claim of past trends as the way I understand it in the last 15 years going back to 1989 to include the last crash there have been only 5 Octobers where there have been price falls.
5  out of 15 hardly seems a trend.

From my personal experience October is the worst time of year to put a property on the market. The market seems to slow right down, picking up again towards the middle of February. I'll never market a property again at this time of year & always sell in spring now, which has led to speedy sales.

Cautious_Ben

No disagreement over the Autumn/Winter period being slow for sales, but the Nationwide figures were for October, which is the end of summer/start Autumn period. Through the Summer, when prices first started to show signs of a downturn, some 'experts' in the press were stating this was due to Summer slump and things will pick up after people get back from their holidays.

I also agree crash would not be a good thing, but I also think a crash would be driven by external economic factors, and not happen just because some people would like to see it happen. The doom and gloom merchants who talk of market crash will not cause it to happen.

dougk_2

I just wish all the doom and gloom people would shut up and wait and see. If prices drop by 10 or 15% so what - they will rise again. But we should not talk % here, different sorts of houses will have different sorts of falls and gains - all fed by demand and what people want!

What people don't seem to think about is that diff. parts of the country react differently to price changes. Prices in London and the south are high, but then generally so is the salary higher so you can afford more.

Headlines from the press don't show the real trends and figures. If you spend carefully and don't waste your money then I think most single / partnered (With children etc) people can afford to spend 1/3rd to 1/2 of your salary on your house - just don't go out partying every night and buy a new car every two years! ;D

Cautious_Ben

Historically high house prices and historically low interest rates may not be the best formula for commiting 1/2 your salery to housing.

dougk_2

I meant (and thought I said) can afford to spend 1/3rd to half... but I personally would not commit to half my salary!

If I spent say 30% of my salary on a mortgage I know at the worst case if rates went up that i still have a 20% buffer left ... and I should have been saving that 20% in the mean time! .

My feeling is people don't save but spend all they get. ???

Andrew_M_4

I know this isn't definite, but I asked a senior economist about what I should do, and he said that interest rates are pretty 'permanent' at the minute, and house price growth will be anaemic with little drops in over-priced areas. If you are secure in your job and intend to buy the house as a place to live for a good few years, then its not a bad time to buy.

deemy2004

At the moment interest rate movements are in the control of the BOE, i.e. they have the flexibility to dictate the rates

BUT !!!

As in the past if the situation changes and the markets dictate the rates, then its a whole different story !

So saying they are 'permanent' low is a big gamble, for all it would take is a 10% drop in the exchange rate, whcih could occur over a few weeks, for the interest rates to be off !

Saying that the currency has been weak of late as the UK slows more than expected. Now if the UK weakens more and the £ drops further, it won't be long before the speculators starting eyeing the £ as a candidate for a bear run.

Its happened before and WILL happen again, sometime......

So no rates are NOT permanently low by any means ! and could STILL experience sharp swings, the only way to avoid sharp rates swings is by joining the euro.