HD-DVD or Blue ray

ray_gillespie

Ok look, I've clearly touched a nerve here for some reason, I don't mean to offend. Your point of hybridisation is a valid one but there is precedence for a single format becoming obsolete on many occasions such as DIVX (not DivX), Mini Disc, Betamax etc.

The real problem is the expense of these 'hybrid' players and discs - and no-one will want to go down this more expensive path. There were hybrid DVD-/+ and CD-/+ on the market from very early on compared to the HD/Blu ray situation. Why would anyone want to buy an expensive hybrid player when almost all the main highstreet retailers are showing preference to Blu ray, not to mention the film studios. There won't be the HD-DVD discs around to warrant the hybrid players.

As far as people saying that HD-DVD would be the winners, I was referring to people's whose opinion actually matters in the world of technology, i.e. journalists, companies etc. I have NEVER heard anyone like this stating that HD-DVD looked like it would win. I have heard countless times recently that Blu ray will win.

The problem (or cure) here is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy to look like you have the advantage. Once people think Blu ray will win, they will shun HD-DVD (as is already happening in great numbers) and Blu ray will actually win.

There will not be a beautiful future of expensive hybrid players where everyone wins. The fact is that Blu ray is clearing up and will dominate the market in 2 years' time or less. No-one likes to back a loser and it's too late for the bybrid players.

Let's come back to this post in 5 years time and see if you can buy HD-DVD discs in any major retailer.

LuciferTDark

I'm sticking with plain DVD until the studios stop releasing titles in that format, why waste £300+ on a new player when you don't have to?

ray_gillespie

Precisely!

superscaper

ray_gillespie wrote: »

Ok look, I've clearly touched a nerve here for some reason, I don't mean to offen.

Actually it's because you were quite rude "Don't get your knickers in a twist", and made false assertions about what I think "you prefer HD-DVD". It is possible to disagree without bringing it down to that level.

As for format obselescence I did specifically say optical discs (i'll check my post as I'm sure I meant to type that). I'm fully aware of the likes of betamax, MD etc which actually was one of the reasons people said BR would fail because Sony have thus far failed in every single format war. It's just plain impossible to say for certainty what's going to happen. The next time you disagree with someone's opinion, do it without the patronising derogatory remarks and don't make any assumptions that haven't been explicitly written. I may have a different opinion to you over it and I may in fact be completely wrong but I've been talking about blue laser discs for more than ten years so we most probably have been reading the same material but just come to different conclusions on it.

ray_gillespie

Sorry Superscraper, I didn't mean to be rude, I was just being silly. We'll just have to wait and see what happens!

superscaper

ray_gillespie wrote: »

Sorry Superscraper, I didn't mean to be rude, I was just being silly. We'll just have to wait and see what happens!

Well to be honest not only could either of us be right but something else could make us both wrong. Like the introduction of another technology and format war (I think holographic discs are maturing now at research stage). So as far as I'm concerned I still only have a 1/3 chance of being right anyway. Hardly confident!

Right from the beginning of the introduction of the formats (not the technology) I've always aruged that BR would most likely take the majority mostly because Sony was taking such a big hit on loss leading PS3 and I reckoned that would take an awfully big market share of people that wouldn't by buying blue laser players ordinarily. But I'm just not confident it could kill off any format. And considering the timespan between new technologies nad formats is shrinking we're certainly going to get to a stage where there won't even be time for a format war to be resolved before that entire generation is made obsolete by the next format war.

ray_gillespie

It looks like we're another step closer!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7250068.stm

superscaper

ray_gillespie wrote: »

It looks like we're another step closer!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7250068.stm

What I expected would be the response to yesterday's exaggarated claims by the media.

ray_gillespie

Yes that's very true, though it fits in with my theory that simply by looking like it will win, Blu ray will do just that. The media are gagging for Toshiba to throw in the towel, which in turn will make it all the more likely.

superscaper

ray_gillespie wrote: »

Yes that's very true, though it fits in with my theory that simply by looking like it will win, Blu ray will do just that. The media are gagging for Toshiba to throw in the towel, which in turn will make it all the more likely.

I still can't see it completely dying off though. As I mentioned on another thread I can't see Sony agreeing a license for MS to use Blu Ray on the Xbox for example.

By the way some of the previous threads I've commented on, I don't think I've changed my opinion or had a preference for either format (one of the thread titles is "Blu Ray is dead", you'll probably get a kick out of that in hindsight):
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=585502
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=430055
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=382550
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=348224
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=292724