will this weeks events cause Recession?

ivegotabig1

Not sure if this is the place to post this but, with an economic slowdown already looming, will the events of this week simply hasten a slowdown & perhaps even cause an outright recession?? confidence will surely be hit badly,especially as any "threat" may be for a foreseable future??

carnet

No, its a sad fact but terrorism is already factored into the markets.

ivegotabig1

hope your right !! but look how long it took the airlines to recover from 9/11 ? thats if they ever did fully recover !!

meanmachine_2

That's because the US markets panicked, thinking it was the end of the world.

We British have, sadly, more experience of this type of thing.

No doubt it'll keep the flaky Yanks away, hitting tourism, but I don't think it'll have much impact apart from that.

As a single man, it wouldn't put me off London. But if I had, or was thinking of having kids, it might possibly persuade me to move out of town.

That's fairly natural though.

As for a recession, I think we've been heading that way anyway. we don't need terrorists to f**k up the economy. We've been doing that ourselves.

kinesin_2

meanmachine wrote:

As for a recession, I think we've been heading that way anyway. we don't need terrorists to f**k up the economy. We've been doing that ourselves.

All the medium/long term indicators have been pointing to a slowdown/recession. All the attack on London will do is provide a nicely timed scrapgoat for the housing market, (about to go YOY negitive) and Gordon Brown (public spending too high vs income from tax aka 1p on income tax/ni to protect us!)

deemy2004

The UK economy is far from a recession, even if the housing market falls.

It is amazingly robust.

I just can't see a recession devloping at any point over the next 18 months... further on , who knows ?

a bomb here or there makes little or no difference, but crude oil price rises or falls make a BIG difference.

Yeh the UK is slowing down... to around 2% or just under.. but we are NOWHERE NEAR recession which is 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth.. nowhere near going into a recession. Look at the stockmarket - which is infact discounting future economic growth rather than contraction.

Thats not to say there may be a recession in particular sectors such as tourism...

The time to start worrying about a recession is when GDP growth starts nudging below 1%.

muddyfox470

no it is much more complex than that,

merely going to be a blip

the usa was already going into a recession when 911 happened

economics is really interesting if you can, go study it, if not go to https://www.tutor2u.net for some good info / resources! (i really enjoyed it, altho it was very hard)

ian

geo555

Not sure of a recession, but a severe slowdown is already happening.
Houses - not selling
People are scared to morgage themselves to the hilt with no job security. Don't believe the government unemployment figures. They have created 750,000 non jobs, 3 million more people are on disability. that leaves about 900,000 offiaclly out of work.
Retail - Allders gone, Gadget shop gone, Index gone. How many others will go?
Minumum wage, business rate bills, cheap E-tailers
Manufacturing - Rover gone. When was the last time you bought something made in Britain?
The truth is that we cannot compete with cheap foriegn labour with all our regulations. Skills have gone and they wont come back.

deemy2004

muddyfox470 wrote:

no it is much more complex than that,

merely going to be a blip

the usa was already going into a recession when 911 happened

economics is really interesting if you can, go study it, if not go to https://www.tutor2u.net for some good info / resources! (i really enjoyed it, altho it was very hard)

ian

Yeh 9-11 was the icing on the cake.. it was the dot com crash that caused the recession.

deemy2004

geo555 wrote:

The truth is that we cannot compete with cheap foriegn labour with all our regulations. Skills have gone and they wont come back.

But were still growing, getting wealthier and wealther each month, wages going up...

The decline has not started yet, for we are STILL growing, albeit at a slower pace but still UP.

I think this era will be looked back upon as Britains golden era... how long will this last ? It survived the dot com crash, Sept 11th, the housing bubble peaking.. and definetly the London Bombs.

Maybe 18 months from now... the picture will have changed somewhat ?

MrBen_4

deemy2004 wrote:

But were still growing, getting wealthier and wealther each month, wages going up...

The decline has not started yet, for we are STILL growing, albeit at a slower pace but still UP.

I think this era will be looked back upon as Britains golden era... how long will this last ? It survived the dot com crash, Sept 11th, the housing bubble peaking.. and definetly the London Bombs.

Maybe 18 months from now... the picture will have changed somewhat ?

My wages aren't. House prices get further and further away from me every month.