Interest Rate move - Feb 08

Gorgeous_George

So, after today's move by the Fed, what will the MPC decide in February?

What odds are the bookies offering for a 0.75% or 1% cut?

At this early stage I'd guess at them shaving 0.25% off the base rate.


EDIT: Just one hour later and, after reading Merv's speech, I change my forecast to a more significant 0.5%


GG

jebervic

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

So, after today's move by the Fed, what will the MPC decide in February?

What odds are the bookies offering for a 0.75% or 1% cut?

At this early stage I'd guess at them shaving 0.25% off the base rate.


GG

0.25% for me

lynzpower

I totally hope things are held - but I agree it will be more as likely .25 reduction

DaveyDave_3

Well, given the inflationary situation, I'd say that they should go up by .25, but they won't. Down by .25 IMO. The economy is in too much trouble for Merv to do the right thing and all of us who have been sensible enough to save over the last 5 years will have our money eroded by inflation. If you can't beat them, join them - I'm just going out to get a heafty x6 salary mortgage.

Dave

Generali

Rumours abound in the markets of 'co-ordinated' cuts by the ECB, MPC and the FOMC.

Merv was due to speak at 8pm and I notice that Betfair have suspended their market in UK interest rates. I wonder if he's announced an emergency cut? Even The London Paper (yesterday's news today) hinted that he was going to announce a cut. Can't find anything on ft/bbc/bloomberg website (no Bloomberg access from home sadly).

Anyway. At least 50bps down I reckon. Even a full percent wouldn't surprise me but if I was a betting man (which I am) I'd plump for 50bps I reckon. I'd be amazed if UK rates are above 4% on 31st December 2008 unless we have a good old fashioned Sterling crisis.

ManAtHome

Edited highlights here G http://www.afxnews.com/about488/index.php?lg=en&c=00.00&story=2276705

Headlines:
Inflation to go up, but may come down sometime
Interest rates to come down
Pound sort-of ok-ish (maybe)
We need to save more, spend less (lol, so we encourage spending)

Gorgeous_George

Well, larger cuts would be nice for mortgagees. My mortgages are quite modest with a residential at 1 x joint income and BTL covered by less than 50% of rental income. Both on trackers.

I guess my savings would fall in value but even this will be dwarfed by losses in pension funds.

GG

Generali

ManAtHome wrote: »

Edited highlights here G http://www.afxnews.com/about488/index.php?lg=en&c=00.00&story=2276705

Headlines:
Inflation to go up, but may come down sometime
Interest rates to come down
Pound sort-of ok-ish (maybe)
We need to save more, spend less (lol, so we encourage spending)

So no cut but a big fat wink to the markets for the morning.

There is the whiff of panic in the air IMO. The market for Dow futures today was closed for the first time in over 20 years today due to being 'limit down' (the fall was the maximum that the market will allow in a session).

aardvaak

lynzpower wrote: »

I totally hope things are held - but I agree it will be more as likely .25 reduction

Yes I hope they are put on hold too perhaps an increase!

aardvaak

DaveyDave wrote: »

Well, given the inflationary situation, I'd say that they should go up by .25, but they won't. Down by .25 IMO. The economy is in too much trouble for Merv to do the right thing and all of us who have been sensible enough to save over the last 5 years will have our money eroded by inflation. If you can't beat them, join them - I'm just going out to get a heafty x6 salary mortgage.

Dave

Yes agreed

agracooble

Generali wrote: »

So no cut but a big fat wink to the markets for the morning.

There is the whiff of panic in the air IMO. The market for Dow futures today was closed for the first time in over 20 years today due to being 'limit down' (the fall was the maximum that the market will allow in a session).

I agree with Aardvaak what are you all thinking of, how are people like us going to earn a living with this kind of talk!