quick survey: ftbs in London

wafer_2

Hi everyone,

Just a quick survey to see if there any other ftbs out there right now, like me, in the process of buying a property in London despite all the negative news. Reports keep saying there are no ftbs out there right now and other people say I should wait. Are there any other ftbs around who would like to share their views?

What are your reasons for buying now?

Mine are...
flat with 3 beds with share of freehold so will have room for future family (currently just my husband and I ).
good area
near to good school
would not be able afford a 3 bed house in the same area
these properties with share of freehold do not come up that often
thinking living long term here, def. upto 10 yrs
have been looking for years and this is the best of the bunch

carolt

If you can definitely afford it, both now and if you do decide to have a family and drop to only one or one and a half incomes (or 2 plus exhorbitant childcare costs...) AND if you won't be kicking yourself when in a few months/couple of years time, your flat is worth much less than you paid for it and you could buy a 3 bed semi in a better area for the same price, then you are doing the right thing.

Otherwise, think about why it is that everyone is advising you not to buy and other FTB's, like myself, are staying away from the market.

Read:

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/company-comment/2008/01/10/housing-stocks-under-the-hammer.aspx?source=ioowfeml0040012

out today, particularly:

The average house-building stock has now collapsed 60% from the peak, and the decline is accelerating....

The simple message from the stock market is that the near-term house price and sale outlook is worsening much faster than the property professionals are telling us.....

A scary report on Bloomberg this morning detailed a home sale auction in November by mainstream builder Lennar Corp. 11,000 properties in eight US states have apparently been sold off for just 40% of their price two months ago.

House builders' share prices could also be warning us that the British property market will be down in the doldrums for much longer than the 'experts' would have us believe.

But, whatever the longer-term outlook, the stock market is talking. Loudly. And as a former boss of mine used to say whenever stocks fell very sharply for no plainly obvious reason: "If forced to choose between the story and the share price...always believe the share price!"

carpmaster

wafer wrote: »

Hi everyone,

Just a quick survey to see if there any other ftbs out there right now, like me, in the process of buying a property in London despite all the negative news. Reports keep saying there are no ftbs out there right now and other people say I should wait. Are there any other ftbs around who would like to share their views?

What are your reasons for buying now?

Mine are...
flat with 3 beds with share of freehold so will have room for future family (currently just my husband and I ).
good area
near to good school
would not be able afford a 3 bed house in the same area
these properties with share of freehold do not come up that often
thinking living long term here, def. upto 10 yrs
have been looking for years and this is the best of the bunch

If you can easily afford it and aren't worried about the same flat next door selling in a few years for half of what you paid , then go for it and ignore the "doom and gloom".

wolvoman

carpmaster wrote: »

If you can easily afford it and aren't worried about the same flat next door selling in a few years for half of what you paid , then go for it and ignore the "doom and gloom".

A good area of London, good schools, share of freehold. Do you seriously believe it will be half price in a few years?!

jaype

I'm not buying yet, despite husband and I being in FTB position in London. Not betting on half price, probably a max of 20 per cent down as I'm a pessimist / realist, but never underestimate the value of sentiment in the UK market. Unless it's prime Chelsea and Kensington then it may not fall as much as other places owing tto those positive factors, but if all else falls then fall it will

carolt

wolvoman wrote: »

A good area of London, good schools, share of freehold. Do you seriously believe it will be half price in a few years?!

Yes, quite possibly.:)

And 30-40% extremely likely. See my post above for falls that size in 2 months in the US....

[Deleted User]

London is a big place...

Have you considered one of the commuter towns in zone 6 on train routes? I live in Herts, commute from zone 6 and have cheaper house prices, more fresh air and good schools.. yet i'm still only 20 minutes train ride to kings cross.

wolvoman

carolt wrote: »

Yes, quite possibly.:)

And 30-40% extremely likely. See my post above for falls that size in 2 months in the US....

Goodness me, you're comparing a property auction in just 8 US States with normally sold properties in a huge global city.
Now if you can show me that some of those US properties are in New York City (the only comparable city in the US) then your point makes more sense.

Biggie

wolvoman wrote: »

Goodness me, you're comparing a property auction in just 8 US States with normally sold properties in a huge global city.
Now if you can show me that some of those US properties are in New York City (the only comparable city in the US) then your point makes more sense.

I second that,

Both NY and parts of areas such as Beverly Hills have acually seen increases. Both of which have alot in common with London.

carolt

Most recent news is that Manhattan property prices are also starting to fall.

Happy to put my money where my mouth is - I'm NOT buying in London as a FTB.

Second ringo_24601's tip for Hertfordshire or equivalent as alternative to London - you can buy a nice house (or rent - it's lot cheaper) in a nice area, 20 mins into Central London with excellent schools and much better quality of life. I'm from London and never saw myself living anywhere else. But there ARE alternatives - and they make more sense at the moment.

And I'd love to come back to this thread in 6 months or a year and see if those who claim London house prices could never fall aren't just a teensy bit shamefaced......

SerenaGoode

carolt wrote: »

Most recent news is that Manhattan property prices Second ringo_24601's tip for Hertfordshire or equivalent as alternative to London - you can buy a nice house (or rent - it's lot cheaper) in a nice area, 20 mins into Central London with excellent schools and much better quality of life. I'm from London and never saw myself living anywhere else. But there ARE alternatives - and they make more sense at the moment.

And I'd love to come back to this thread in 6 months or a year and see if those who claim London house prices could never fall aren't just a teensy bit shamefaced......

I agree with you London prices may well fall. I bought in 2005 in a good London area, the price has gone up a fair way since then, but I don't think it's impossible for them to fall back to or beyond the price we paid - I remember 1989-96 well...

However, as a dyed in the wool Londoner I'd be very reluctant to suggest the Hertofrdshire option at this stage. I've looked long and hard at prices over the last twenty years or so, and even now the differentials suggest that the areas surrounding London are more overpriced than London. so if London falls, Hertfordshire might fall by more. Plus commuting within London is bad enough without adding the strain of the commute into town.

Only a personal opinion and I'm very prejudiced.

On the original question I thought I was taking a risk when I bought in 2005, but I think the risks are even higher now, and I can't see that prices will go up much for the next year, so there's not too much risk in waiting and seeing how bad the credit crunch gets. but if you can really afford and think you could live there for a long time, I wouldn't say it's automatically a bad idea, so long as you are aware of the danger of serious price falls.