December house prices up 1.3%

dannyboycey

hearts wrote: »

5.2% increase on the 100k. Not a bad return asuming it continues

It wont.

YoY figures were well into double digits a couple of months before Christmas, so effectively, there has been a very significant drop since then in prices. The figures from the first 3 quarters of 2007 ensure that the overall figure is still positive - in reality, prices are dropping fast.

firsttimetom

I was just going to point this out. On a 100k property clearing itself. 15k deposit. 5.2% increase on the 100k. Not a bad return asuming it continues and his buying /selling costs are covered. ;-)

Yes, this is very true. and I admit, its a good return. However, you simply couldn't pick up a house for 100k in my area, so in my case, sticking my deposit in the bank would have yielded a better return with less risk and of course, I beleive YoY's will fall until they inevitably hit -ve.

People buying Pre 2005 as a BTL should still be doing well though.

Millionaire

Hi,

So the yearly increase was 5.2% for 2007

Does anyone know the yearly rate increase for 2006 was?

Thanks

merlinthehappypig

Seems like the markets didn't find the Halifax's figures encouraging or believeable - four of the main housebuilders' shares dropped by between 4% and 6% on a day when their was a small overall increase in the FTSE.

merlinthehappypig

Millionaire wrote: »

Hi,

So the yearly increase was 5.2% for 2007

Does anyone know the yearly rate increase for 2006 was?

Thanks

9.9% according to the Halifax. Plenty of regional and price band variations within the Halifax figures, though, and different figures from different surveys as well.

hgllgh

Generali wrote: »

The index is adjusted for the type of property that is selling as well as being seasonally adjusted.

Link

In that case, I simply do not buy the Halifax figures. If you read through the forum people both buying and selling are saying that prices have fallen quite markedly. There is either a problem with their methodology or they are excluding properties "selectively" maybe even convincing themselves that what they are excluding is right ....
"Although one hundred per cent coverage of all house purchase transactions financed by the Halifax is obtained, those transactions that do not constitute a fully consistent body of data for the purpose of house price analysis are excluded from the Indices"

Who knows, there may be flaws in their methodology...
"prices are disaggregated into their constituent parts using a commonly used statistical technique called multivariate regression analysis" :T

They also don't exactly sell the Index very well do they ...
"we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness" :rotfl:

mystic_trev

Millionaire wrote: »

Hi,

So the yearly increase was 5.2% for 2007

Does anyone know the yearly rate increase for 2006 was?

Thanks

2006 - Halifax - 9.9%

2006 - Nationwide - 10.50%

Halifax's prediction for 2007 was 4%

hearts

firsttimetom wrote: »

Yes, this is very true. and I admit, its a good return. However, you simply couldn't pick up a house for 100k in my area, so in my case, sticking my deposit in the bank would have yielded a better return with less risk and of course, I beleive YoY's will fall until they inevitably hit -ve.

People buying Pre 2005 as a BTL should still be doing well though.

The 100k was merely for example. ;-) Everything is pro rata 200k 30k deposit. Increase 5.2% of 200k.
Of course should they fall by 5.2% the same applies ;-)

As they say "Please be aware investments can go down as well as up" or something like that. ;-)

Generali

hgllgh wrote: »

In that case, I simply do not buy the Halifax figures. If you read through the forum people both buying and selling are saying that prices have fallen quite markedly. There is either a problem with their methodology or they are excluding properties "selectively" maybe even convincing themselves that what they are excluding is right ....
"Although one hundred per cent coverage of all house purchase transactions financed by the Halifax is obtained, those transactions that do not constitute a fully consistent body of data for the purpose of house price analysis are excluded from the Indices"

Who knows, there may be flaws in their methodology...
"prices are disaggregated into their constituent parts using a commonly used statistical technique called multivariate regression analysis" :T

They also don't exactly sell the Index very well do they ...
"we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness" :rotfl:

Fair enough. I don't either and they are pretty explicit about their shortcomings as you point out. Land Registry figures are the only reliable numbers really but the are produced pretty late and are obviously backward looking.

mystic_trev wrote: »

2006 - Halifax - 9.9%

2006 - Nationwide - 10.50%

Halifax's prediction for 2007 was 4%

And the actual rise was 5.2%(?). Pretty decent prediction as it goes. After years of being way out of course.