Does the "When your deal ends" box include the 20% rise in January?

Aaron3195

I've been using the tariff tool at the Cheap Energy Club spoken about in Martin Lewis' Newsletter. In the "When your deal ends" box does this include the 20% hike? My tariff ends on 14 January 2027, so hence the question.

I'm not entirely sure if the tariff results include paying out an exit fee of £150 as well to leave my current supplier (Outfox the Market New Year Fix 2026 1.0). If it doesn't, then it doesn't look like it's worth switching to anything right now?

QrizB

In the "When your deal ends" box does this include the 20% hike?

As I understand it, no it doesn't. It'll include the recent 4% increase - the box says "that's currently" - but not any as-yet-unknown future ones.

Scot_39

So my take on whether those inc the 20% - assuming you mean the forecast cap 20% - for those 3 sorts of tariff would be -

Short answer

NO on variable, NO on cap tracker and a NO on fix - but that will likely be at more "current market" pricing.

As likely fix prices will reflect current price rises yes and a degree of future projections. But just to complicate matters - that is definitely not necessarily the same as the "current predicted" cap 20% or be the same prices now as you will see the same equivalent fix priced at in Jan - or for that matter potentially even tomorrow - (or maybe earlier say maybe Dec during the notice / change period) when you actually might switch to avoid fees.

Background reasoning

Cap

Short - The actual rise is not set yet. Ofgem announces it late Nov for Jan 27.

The 20% - if that turns out to be value when it is finally calculated at the end of Nov - well then only strictly apply to variable tariffs under the cap - and of course then obviously Ofgem cap trackers, but NOT fixes, come Jan.

So 2 of the 3 quotes shown in post above - would change come Jan - but they cannot tell you anything definite about future price or cap yet - so just Oct cap (current prices) currently.

As to when their number updated to new cap - after its announced at end of Nov - gets reflected in comparison sites after announcement - not sure as they dont handle my tariff - but it cannot be yet - because it's not actually known yet - and it can take weeks for suppliers to recalculate more complex tariffs - E7 and others.

And just to re-inforce it - remember 20% is only an estimate on the presumption of energy prices over full 3 months window. And the actual Ofgem cap averaging window - still has weeks to go - as the cap in Jan 2027 is based on market prices from Aug 19th to Nov 17th (were around 7 weeks in of 12 on that basis). In which prices could rise or fall to impact the actual Jan cap.

By the time the cap applies - it's essentially lagging the real market. Below price on way up - above price on the way down.

Fixes

Fixes are different - they are priced based on the prices suppliers can guarantee buying at - in order to protect themselves over the full 12m/18m/24m term.

The only time a fix is really guaranteed is when you sign up to it - at least if doing so at a new supplier.

Some suppliers have literally been changing fixed offers every few days at worst - one got upto issue 7 or 8 at least for instance on their monthly 1 yr fix as market prices changed - upward.

Hence in part the warnings re exit fees if switch now. Current prices etc etc.

Because the Ofgem cap is a historic average - whilst the fixes were increasing - cap prices remained fixed. But then catch up later. But note the opposite can be true when prices drop - the fixes will follow a falling market down faster than the cap. In fact - fixes can be falling but the cap increases - if peaks clearly earlier in 3m averaging window.

Fixers / Switchers ??

What happens in the 7 week notice window that allows you to avoid those £150 exit fees on the old fix ? If staying at the same supplier - I am unsure - but your at least 6 or so weeks from then anyway. They might allow you to lock in the new deal early - or at least switch to it early (I honestly cannot remember its been so long ).

jumire939

The £150 exit fee is a real factor, that's high enough that switching now only pays off if the savings over the remaining months exceed it. The tool usually has a field for exit fees, worth entering it to see if any of the results are still in front.