Octopus estimate of future usage.

brilec

So my current 12m fixed rate dual fuel contract ends shortly, and surprise surprise, prices have increased quite a bit. But my monthly payments even more. I was paying £136 pm, but they dropped it to £109 in April. Just been told they want to increase to £136 again, but I am almost £600 in credit.

Then get the warning my contract ends and they now want £202 pm, based on their estimate of my use.

But I keep a tally of past use, and checking the last year, my total Electricity use was 2572Kwh, they estimate I will use 3400Kwh. Same with Gas, last year 12501Kwh, their estimate 14268Kwh. So it's hardly surprising they want so much more each month. Also explains perhaps why I am so much in credit.

Anyone else noticed this?

reefer37

yeah had this aswell. i just logged on and changed my DD payment to slightly below and this way will use up the credit over the expensive winter months. like you just £540 credit and will slowly reduce this

FlorayG

The estimates are done by a computer which doesn't have all the relevant information. Every year I get notification that my DD needs to go up to about £200 a month, I phone them and point out that I have soler panels, a battery and £600 credit with them and they always say " of course; we'll leave it at £40 then" 🙄

MattMattMattUK

You could switch to Monthly Variable Direct Debit and just pay for what you use every month, more in winter, less in summer.

A slight issue with measuring against previous years is the last few winters have been statistically very warm, we are due a cold one. The winter usage figures are supposed to take account of that somehow, but I am not exactly sure of the specifics.

As for your credit and the monthly amount, have you worked out your estimated expenditure against your monthly payments, with current prices that credit, even with higher payments, might not last long, e.g. it may be targeted at running out by the spring.

Scot_39

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6685441/octopus-estimate-of-future-usage

afaik from posts here Octopus are very flexible on DD plans.

Others post about just logging in and changing their number far more freely tgan tge c10% my supllier allows when in sufficient credit.

And not all winters are equal - with many forecasting a cold and damp one this year due to el nino (or super el nino as some say).

Id say c10% was a good margin on a mild winter like lasts baseline. Anything more cheeky on their part.

Swipe

And not all winters are equal - with many forecasting a cold and damp one this year due to el nino (or super el nino as some say).

The general consensus on this year's long range winter forecast is mild and wet up to the end of January and then a cold spell from late Jan early February onwards due to high pressure blocking. All subject to change of course.

vic_sf49

Yeah, I'm one that just checks what direct debit they recommend in the app, and adjusts accordingly.

I tend to check in Spring, Autumn, and then a bit more often over winter.

brilec

I have asked them why they over estimate.

On the one side it makes sure you don't end up owing money, but at the same time, if a fair proportion of customers have credit, it's an interest free loan to the company.

Rodders53

I've only been with Octopus since March (and on a fixed 12m rate).

I set a DD amount I'm happy with… Latest one means I'm a few £s in credit… was £26 debit last month… We use more in summer (aircon/hot tub) than winter (oil heating, or even aircon in reverse).

Their suggested DD is a few pounds more than I currently have set. I may reduce it or just leave it as is. Was on variable DD with EoN… Octopus suits me this way but variable DD is fine as we can budget for Electric far easier than buying Kerosene where one need to be clairvoyant…

debitcardmayhem

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82158174#Comment_82158174

Except over the whole industry there is £4.5 Billion debt most of it not being serviced.

EDIT: oh and that will appear on your SC soon

MattMattMattUK

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82158435#Comment_82158435

Already up to £6 billion and due to hit £7 billion by the end of the year and possibly £8 billion by Spring 2027. As you point out something the rest of us are going to be required to pay as energy suppliers are now allowed to effectively recover debts.