MSE News Article - How Will Energy Prices Change? - Updated Today

Scot_39

MSE have posted an article - or rather maybe an update - on suppliers future cap predictions - caution the crystal ball warnings are important given current volatility - if not already linked elsewhere by one of the team

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/energy-price-cap-prediction/

No BGas number yet - EDF just over 25%, Eon just under - so average of 2 - 24.7%.

Up from 18.7% last week (still showing in the fix or not article) - so another 6%.

(Already posted the same link in the General News thread)

Hopefully todays 8p/therm - on month ahead supply - so near 4% drop might be a sign we are off the peak - but I wouldnt bet my life on it.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas#historical

Scot_39

BG price prediction now in at 25.4% - average of 3 up 0.2 to 24.9% - link as above

deejaybee

My current 12 M fix ends 1st December 26.

Elec 20.94 and 50.55 s/c

Gas 5.65 and 32.68 s/c

Can get a 18M fix

Elec 27.06 52.00 s/c Gas 8.44 28.54 s/c.

Estimate is my monthly d/d up from 82 to 89.

No exit fee on current fix, unsure whether to wait till nearer end of current fix, or jump to new deal early ???

Swipe

Worryingly, there's talk from some weather forecasters about the increased probability of another 'beast from the east' from mid January/early February due to the blocking effects of the super el nino after a very wet and mild autumn.

debitcardmayhem

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82138485#Comment_82138485

Don't worry the Beast from the east will only last one day FACT , said a Pest from the west

Stevie1

Our system is so broken… these rises are unsustainable.

pearl123

25% increase in January. It's impossible to keep paying out. And it will have a knock on effect on food prices.

Scot_39

Its too early to say if these prices will last.

The one month ahead supply has already come off the 210p/therm peak c14th of Sep to 192.5p as of now.

If MSE update the article it could fall a bit the week after next - the problem is the last 2 weeks is now in Ofgem's 3 m averaging - so will sadly influence pricing for many.

silverwhistle

If we get a wet, and more importantly, windy autumn the gas prices could soften as there won't be so much used for generating electricity, and Dogger A and Sofia wind farms coming fully on line this autumn will also help. Once we get to April and solar kicking in again we should be fine.

I'm on gas tracker and between yesterday and today it's gone down 0.31p a kWh, to a less horrendous price!* I hope to get a heat pump before the heating season, which for me started towards the end of November last year which will render the issue academic.

As I'm also on Agile a bit of judicious use of electricity for direct acting space heating would also be possible and it underlines that electricity may become increasingly competitive with gas for heating. It was negative today, a little bit tomorrow and I think the weekend could be quite impressive in terms of being paid to get my laundry done and, if I get it back from servicing, a nice time to top up the car's battery.

*Edit: for the curious, 9.15p a kWh

The_Groat_Counter

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82140356#Comment_82140356

Re your point that "electricity may become increasingly competitive with gas for heating"…

Mick Wall of Energy Stats UK recently did a video on this topic:
When 2p Gas Made Heat Pumps Pointless | Now It Doesn't

From the video summary:

In 2016 my gas cost 1.99p per kWh. Today it's heading to 8p and beyond. I've analysed 10 years of real EDF bills and Ofgem price cap data to show how heating maths has flipped.

Both gas and electricity cost more than in 2016 — but the ratio between them (the spark gap) narrowed from 5.37x to around 3.3x. That changes the value you get per kWh of useful heat.
[…]