using AI for pension projections

SouthCoastBoy

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82126886#Comment_82126886

My primary objective is to ensure I can live my current lifestyle for the rest of my life. i am also keen on leaving an inheritance, which is why i havent considered an annuity, if there is an iht bill so be it, although i do plan to gift regularly if my pot can sustain it.

horsewithnoname

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82126886#Comment_82126886

the great thing about being dead is that you no longer pay tax, but your estate may be liable for IHT if you are lucky enough to have sufficient money

RogerPensionGuy

SWR, we can pick any % and maybe adjust withdrawal rate as appropriate.

We have enjoyed a 17 or 18 years of a bull run overall with a few big corrections and these dips corrections have been pretty dramatic, but the recovery time has been very short in my opinion.

Picking a SWR % with a dynamic adjustment mechanism does feel okay in the most part in my head.

However I'm a glass quarter full person and I planned/plan for a real big correction/crash like history shows us that is very slow to recover and this to occur in my gogo years whereby I would probably stop DC SIPP withdrawals awaiting recovery.

AI is certainly helpful to show examples of the past and this can be helpful in planning, but AI doesn't know the future.

I used AI for information many times on SWR & wanting good hard cash flows in the gogo years and beyond until 100 years old in fact and it agreed due my situation and not bothered if I/wife leave any legacy that doing annuities or PLAs with current annuity rates was very suitable.

Reference legacy, annuities I saw can have guarantee periods of up to 30 years and these opinions maybe useful to some people who want to leave legacies.

I hope the markets are the same or similar for the next 17 or 18 years, but I'm guessing they won't be.

On a general note they say people with various or many income streams tend to pan out well, having most income stream from a DC SIPP in drawdown certainty didn't feel good to me.

Cheers Roger.

Aylesbury_Duck

I've used AI to generate lines of thinking, rather than rely on its recommendations. I've caught a few obvious errors, and it will occasionally forget really important contextual information (e.g. a reasonable LGPS DB kicking in at a certain date) so it's not reliable, but it is helpful to bounce ideas around and to check my own assumptions and spreadsheets. It has picked up one or two of my own spreadsheet errors, too.

Linton

Pension projections are simply a mathematical consequence of a set of assumptions so the best tool in my view is a spreadsheet not an AI. Those assumptions must be ones that you are happy with, not ones that an AI has chosen for you.

AI is more useful for "open" questions and coming up with ideas that you may not have considered.

Cobbler_tone

I use AI that much now (for teaching myself things/analysis/recommendations etc) that I am not sure how I got through life before AI! I think that was pretty inevitable, like most tech advances. If you use it a lot, you soon wise up to where it is reliable or where you need to do further work elsewhere, or really need to interrogate to outputs, or just know that it is plain wrong!

LHW99

I find AI's useful to re-write an existing section of text to accomodate a specific focus, but as said above, for detailed research into a niche subject (which is what I frequently tend to do), not so much.

RogerPensionGuy

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82128130#Comment_82128130

Just to agree, AI often gives out bad information, nearly schoolboy errors.

I reply saying the errors and it just politily says, O yes of course blah blah.

Once I correct it, it never gives out the same error on that exact item, but does with close by information, now I've corrected it a good many times it produces data stuff I more like using to fill my fag package with for my reference.

It obvious knows the real information, just happy doing its own research on people collecting all the data it wants and needs, it's interesting.