Which energy tariff makes sense to sign up to in the current climate, variable or fixed?

blue__dog_4

I've just moved onto Outfox Energy (Outfox The Market) standard rate and trying to figure out my best option for a new Dual energy tariff.
Can go variable tracker for 12 months or 3 fixed options for 24, 18 and 12 months, as below.
Current usage is:
Electricity5,455kWh
Gas10,839kWh

Anyone facing a similar decision and know which one is likely to be cheapest over the next 12+ months?
Appreciate it's a bit of a crystal ball question, but based on current predictions which one would make most sense?

OPTION 1 - VARIABLE 12 MONTHS - £150 EXIT FEE
Outfox the Price Cap Tracker 12M Dual - V3
£190.84 p/m, £2,290 pa

OPTION 2 - FIXED 24 MONTHS - £200 EXIT FEE
Fix'd Dual Aug26 24M v1 - Family Advantage+
£194.38 p/m, £2,333 pa

OPTION 3 - FIXED 18 MONTHS - £150 EXIT FEE
Dual Aug26 18M v1 - Family Advantage+Fix'd
£194.48 p/m, £2,334 pa

OPTION 4 - FIXED 12 MONTHS - £150 EXIT FEE
£214.70 p/m, £2,576 pa

oldernonethewiser

Are the above figures all with the same company?

Have you looked at alternatives.

I prefer a fixed rate and moved from Octopus to Fuse.

MikeJXE

I've just moved onto Outfox Energy ?

Does that mean you have just moved house or switched to ?

If you have moved house and they are the current supplier you can switch to any any energy company and choose the best tariff to suit your consumption

Do a comparison on one of the comparison sites using the above usage figures

If you have switch to Outfox then you should have done the maths beforehand and sorry I can't help you

molerat

Do a whole of market comparison and see what you can get with limited exit fees. Eon for instance only charge for change of supplier on their
12mth fixes so if prices reduce you can move at no cost.

MarzipanCrumble

I have just moved to EON Next Aug 26 v8 from Octopus. 24 months were cheaper (fractionally) but I am thinking that the Iranian - US 'war' will get fixed. I procastinated and I lost out by not fixing sooner. Learnt my lesson for when the energy market is so uncertain and fluctuating wildly.

Scot_39

No one can tell you what prices are going to be in 3 or 6 months time, let alone next winter re 24m fixes with highish exit fees.

And a clear risk current fixes will lock you into high now rates - even the 3m filtered cap gas jnit rates have risen 27% and 8% in last 2 cap announcemnts so just over a third - for Jul and Oct (and many forecasting more for Jan based on current levels - MSE 13% in its fix of not)

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/are-there-any-cheap-fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it/

As a higher user - at least you could justify paying (if prices fall) the exit fees sooner

When it looked as if Iran was going to go to negotiation a couple of months ago - id have said variable or movable internal (exit free fix) as above.

Now as winter approaches and demand / speculative or otherwise - pushes UK and EU gas pricing - not so sure just the best 12m fix to ride this winter wouldnt be best regardless.

And again Outfox arent in mse tables - but EOn is - as chosen by one poster above .

So have you tried an all market comparison - or are there reasons to stick with Outfox only ?

And remember youll likeky use most energy over Oct to Mar - so if do get caught on an expensive fix by spring - the savings over winter should realky help offset it unless you catch tge peak (given gas prices spike since weekend its maybd again a bad time to be choosing)

Area88

The best indicator is oil prices -

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Scot_39

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82121710#Comment_82121710

id argue tgd best indicator is uk gas prices - and these have been doing far worse than oil of late - in uk and eu (maybe EU advice in spring dropping storage targets 10% wasnt such a wise move after all given Iran) - in part due to low storage levels and recent high demands during heatwaves for generation.

Germany for instance now risks missing Nov storage targets according to a report 3 days ago from industry, not good news with another price spike in progress (if not in fact itself helping reinforce tge low storage concerns helping creat6e price rises).

Like uk and eu gas up 125 % vsc 35% for oil year on year on spot markets.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

now spiking to 170-175+ - after this weekends exchange of fire - i thought 150s in late July bad enough.

Note these are spot and not futures - you need to go e.g. to ice, to see futures - e.g.

https://www.ice.com/products/910/UK-NBP-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=6342524

QrizB

Note these are spot and not futures - you need to go e.g. to ice, to see futures

Unless they've changed it, the Trading Economics chart is the month-ahead price. It should currently be the same as the ICE price for delivery in October.

(That might in part explain the "spike" as until this week it would have been the price for September deliveries.)

Scot_39

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82121912#Comment_82121912

It seems very dynamic - I'll have another look later at both sites.

MarzipanCrumble

EU will be stocking up now on gas so gas prices are likely to rise.

Well, asked (Google) AI and this is some of what came up:

• "Wholesale Drivers: Prices remain elevated due to global supply uncertainties and geopolitical tightness impacting liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows. [1]
• Consumer Impact: Suppliers buy blocks of energy months or years in advance via these futures contracts to hedge their risk. Because wholesale costs remain high, fixed deals typically track close to or slightly below the prevailing Ofgem Energy Price Cap rather than offering deep discounts."

Ummmm

AI (Google) has approved my fix!!!!

"For a 12-month fixed energy deal, locking in your rates right now is a highly viable strategic move. Wholesale market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions has forced Ofgem to announce a price cap increase, making standard variable tariffs more expensive heading into winter."

LOL, didn't realise I was a strategist! I did my own comparison using Excel and the same use in Kwh for gas and electricity so I got consistency. Yes, my consumption may go up or down. I know that. And I may lose out but yeah - easy come, easy go. And I cannot predict the future, only make an educated guess.