NSI Premium Bonds

Albermarle

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82109454#Comment_82109454

As mentioned on many similar threads before, the average prize rate includes the 2X One Million Pounds that are paid each month. However as the chance of winning one of these is so infinitesimally small, it is best to discount them from the calculations, leaving a more effective average prize rate around 3.8%? ( I can not remember the exact figure).

If you hold the full £50K for a couple of years, you would normally expect to get something close to that. Unless you were particularly lucky or unlucky. In terms of PBs - lucky means not necessarily getting more prizes, but getting a £500 prize ( or bigger) rather than just £25/£50/£100 ones

strawb_shortcake

I have full holding in PB's, the last 11 months I've had 4 blank months and won £1200.

The 12 months prior I had 1 blank month and won £2200.

How would you feel if in 13 months time you'd only won £1200?

Swipe

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82109505#Comment_82109505

I doubt I'll even manage that with only 4 more draws left. So far since 1st Jan, I've only earned £450 or 0.9% on the max holding.

DRS1

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82109454#Comment_82109454

I think the problem is treating 4.35% as if it were an interest rate on a savings account. You shouldn't think that if you put £50k into premium bonds then after 12 months you will have won £2175. You won't. You might have won more or less.

Just because the winnings are tax free doesn't mean you will be better off. Maybe you will maybe you won't. It is a gamble.

missile

I do not gamble on football pools, horses, lottery, etc

Very few win big prizes and beat the 4.35% this will reduce the "odds" for the others.

subjecttocontract

If my wife & I put £100K in a taxable savings account at 5% we get a tax bill of £2K leaving us with £3K. Instead we put it in PBs and last year received £3.7K. That works for us.

OldScientist

https://www.premiumbondsprizes.com/ is a very useful site that calculates the odds of winning various amounts (over various holding periods).

Assuming the rate stays the same over the next year, a £50k holding would win £1900 with median luck (i.e., 3.8%) and has an 80% chance of the winning between £1350 and £2725. The second graph on the summary page can also be used to calculate the odds of beating an alternative account.

molerat

I keep a spreadsheet tracking our PBs. Our running 12 month pay back is currently sitting at 2.16%. 2025 was 3.1%, 2024 was 3.38% and 2023 was 2.07%. Since July 2022 we have had 2 dry months, Jan 2023 and Jul 2025.

subjecttocontract

......and if your annual prize money is less than you could get in a savings account it's the price you pay for the chance of winning a bigger prize. 😢😢

oliveoyl

I only have £1k of bonds, first draw was Feb this year, in March I won £50, last draw won £100. Probably never win again, but you never know.