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POLL: Real Inflation figures

ModernSlave
Posts: 221 Forumite
Somehow, I think the CPI and RPI figures are being fudged. I know it sounds paranoid, but how is it possible that we're only paying 2.1% - 4.3% more? My personal inflation feels MUCH higher!
I'd like to know what everyone else thinks.
Please ESTIMATE what YOUR INFLATION is running at here.
I'll start: 6% at least due to petrol and food prices
I'd like to know what everyone else thinks.
Please ESTIMATE what YOUR INFLATION is running at here.
I'll start: 6% at least due to petrol and food prices
0
Comments
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For the items I am aware that have risen, the following figures apply:
Petrol: 10% of income - 10% rise
Food: 2% of income - 15% rise
Power: 7% of income - 16% rise
So for 29% of income there's been a rise of about 12%
So for 71% of income there's been no specific rises.
Which would indicate 4.5% probably
(please don't dispute the maths, wasn't trying to be a genius, but just scribble down some rationale on it. I know if I spreadsheet it the figures will turn out differently)0 -
What is "real" inflation?
Our own personal inflation will always differ from RPI/CPI, unless our "typical basket of goods" exactly matches that of the relevant index.
Surely, in order to make a comparison between RPI/CPI, we need to take out of those indices the goods we don't buy and then add in the goods we do buy. And then find the indices for the goods we buy .... assuming they're available?
I don't believe that RPI/CPI are "fudged". Just that our own personal spending doesn't match the basket of goods used to calculate those indices.Warning ..... I'm a peri-menopausal axe-wielding maniac0 -
Where's the poll?Warning ..... I'm a peri-menopausal axe-wielding maniac0
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Wheat prices soaring, fuel prices soaring, commodities soaring (feeding into real price increases), council tax soaring, gas/electricity soaring (NPower's news is just the beginning of even greater price increases): I say between 5-6 per cent (BofE will think differently, so expect a .25 rate reduction this Thursday:rolleyes:.BLOODBATH IN THE EVENING THEN? :shocked: OR PERHAPS THE AFTERNOON? OR THE MORNING? OH, FORGET THIS MALARKEY!
THE KILLERS :cool:
THE PUNISHER :dance: MATURE CHEDDAR ADDICT:cool:0 -
It's an open poll. Not one where you pick (A) if you think the figures are wrong, (B) if you believe them. I just would like to know how such low figures are supposed to reflect our society, ie the folk on here.
If deliberately picking items not under inflationary pressure isn't fudging, what is?
How is this...
Consumer Prices Index and Retail Prices Index: The 2007 Basket of
Goods and Services
IntroductionAs part of a process of continual improvement, and to help ensure that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and Retail Prices Index (RPI) are representative of consumer spending patterns, the items that are priced in compiling the indices are reviewed each year. This article describes the review process and explains how and why the various items in the CPI and RPI baskets are chosen. The contents of the CPI and RPI baskets for 2007 are summarised in Annexes A and B, and the main changes from the 2006 price collection are discussed below. Similar articles have been published in previous years. Unlike previous articles, this one also looks at the evolution of expenditure weights since the last RPI rebasing in 1987.
The shopping basketThe most useful way to think about both the CPI and RPI indices is to imagine a ‘shopping basket’ containing those goods and services on which people typically spend their money. As the prices of the various items in the basket change over time, so does the total cost of the basket. Movements in the CPI and RPI indices represent the changing cost of this representative shopping basket.
In principle, the cost of the basket should be calculated with reference to all consumer goods and services purchased by households, and the prices measured in every shop or outlet that supplies them. In practice, both the CPI and RPI are calculated by collecting a sample of prices for a selection of representative goods and services in a range of UK retail locations. Currently, around 120,000 separate price quotations are used every month in compiling the indices, covering some 650 representative consumer goods and services for which prices are collected in around 150 areas throughout the UK.
Within each year, the RPI and CPI are described as fixed quantity (Laspeyres-type) price indices; they represent the changing cost of a basket of goods and services of fixed composition, quantity and quality. In practice, this is achieved by (a) holding constant through each year the sample of representative goods and services for which prices are collected each month in estimating price changes more generally; and (b) applying a fixed set of weights to price changes for each of the items such that their influence on the overall index reflects their importance in the typical household budget. In this way, changes in the RPI and CPI indices from month to month reflect only changes in prices, and not ongoing variations in consumer purchasing patterns.
...not picking up what everyone else seems to be noticing, ie prices rising beyond the stated figures?0 -
My inflation rate is probably in the region of 8-10%. I'm a commuter, pay childcare fees and am looking at paying for private education all of which are increasing quickly in price. I spend little on cheap clothes, furniture or electronics, all of which are falling in price.
4-4.5% for the RPI is probably about right though I reckon.0 -
I also reckon between 4% and 5% is a truer figure and expect it to rise still further this year. Pay rises are reportedly at around 4.5% which is always a decent indication.0
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But we need to lower rates to save the housing market.0
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You can get your own inflation by going to http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pic/ and entering in your expenditures.
Mine's around 4.2%.0 -
i spend a stupid ammount on petrol so i aint happy, if it keeps up like this i might even have to get a sensible car0
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