Why the alarmist headlines on getting a better deal?

Chrysalis

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82014828#Comment_82014828

EPG is a thing of history I think, the cost of that was out of the water, EBSS I can see potentially coming back if costs were to get unmanageable, but Agile indicates it might not be that bad.

Scot_39

The capped rates though assume the same universal protection would be back, which I believe the govt has indicated they are only intending - if anything - looking at more targetted help this time round.

Arguably therefore it might be better for some to remember the Ofgem uncapped rates at post Ukraine invasion mark 2 crisis in late 22 early 23.

So reversing back - from the max discounts applied - under the £2500 epg cap - to get to those 34p and 10.3p rates.

Discounts which were hidden from many, but appeared explicitly on others bills.

Discounts which went to as high as 31.8p ex vat - 33.4p inc vat, and 6.4p ex vat = 6.7p. Suggesting market rates of 34p epg + 33.4p discount = 67.4p/kWh SR electric and 10.3p+6.7p = 17p/kWh gas when the non EPG Ofgem market cap hit iirc £4279 in Q1.

Which roughly lines up with figures in table here

date, ofgem maket cap, elec sr p/kWh, sc, gas p/kWh, gas SC

https://www.electricityprices.org.uk/history-of-the-energy-price-cap/

July 2023	£2,074	30.11p	52.97p	7.51p	29.11p
April 2023	£3,280	50.60p	52.97p	12.61p	29.11p
January 2023	£4,279	67.47p	46.36p	17.08p	28.49p
October 2022	£3,549	51.89p	46.36p	14.76p	28.49p
April 2022	£1,971	28.34p	45.34p	7.37p	27.22p
October 2021	£1,277	20.80p	24.89p	4.07p	26.12p

In Q4 and Q2 Electricity about half that discount, As went 16.6, 31.8 and 17p, whereas gas went 2.2p, 6.4p and 4.2p all ex vat.

My supplier - EOn Next were one of the ones who put the market rates and epg discounts explicitly on their bills - so gave the market rate costs and £s discount figures - making it clear how much Truss's EPG was saving monthly even on my low consumption figures.

IIRC my regions e7/e10 day/peak rate hit even higher - around the 80p/kWh mark. Its currently nearer 30p.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-bills-support/energy-price-guarantee-up-until-30-june-2023

In the end EBSS (£400 over 6m - cost c£12bn) and EPG (discounted / capped rates to £2500 = £23bn) estimated to have cost govt - so future taxpayers - c£35bn+. That £23 bn quite a bit less than the worst case projections at time.

As a low user the EBSS the c£67pm was also a significant saving, so despite lower unit rates in winter 23/24 - my net bills were notably higher. So arguably then my worst year for Ukraine cost impact, not the market peak.

MeteredOut

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6670066/why-the-alarmist-headlines-on-getting-a-better-deal

As previously stated, many will switch even just to save a few pounds. Buts, its in MSE's interest for people to switch too, because they also get a commission for customers switching to (some) suppliers.

born_again

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82014598#Comment_82014598

Not forgetting that many are not on a fixed tariff, due to the tariff they are already on is better & not fixed. Agile etc.

fluffy_kittens47

Price of crumpets going up? Strait of Hormuz m8.

Scot_39

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82015336#Comment_82015336

My posts above are in part to point out just how far currently we are from the Ukraine crisis peaks.

But if the prices do drift higher - I suspect £2000 not even the old £2500 may be a crunch point for instance - which is another reason to be wary of the TDCV's dropping - as makes the headline figures smaller. And since winter 2022/2023 - the 2 drops are after all quite large - on gas and on pc2 electric caps in particular.

But I tend to think if any help goes beyond the c6m on benefits already getting WHD - its more likely to be an EBSS type lump sum - but again maybe filtered based on council tax bands - like the initial £150 rebate scheme.

Qyburn

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82015095#Comment_82015095

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82015336#Comment_82015336

I realy hope the government has more sense now, and would only provide targeted means tested support. It's stupid using public money to blindly subsidise any commodity just because it's become more expensive.

StevieD54

Thanks all for your input and advice, even QrizB for the sarcasm 😂 I was merely commenting on the deals offered by MSE against our current BG Variable tariff. This is what I can’t get my head around ………many of you have shown how much gas prices are rising, so how come the best fixed MSE offer on our current DD payment (£130 p.m.) is only £127? A predicted saving of £3 p.m. Perhaps it’s just me, but I don’t think that’s worth the effort of changing supplier, unless I’m missing something and our DD is about to rocket?

Scot_39

There is a risk in switching - so a threshold is always a useful thing - just in case unlucky and things do go wrong. But for some here even £36pa - would be worth that risk.

But you need to be careful about using DD amounts - and what they are based on - compared to what might be reality going forward - moreso if/when mixing fixes and variable rates.

I am not a MSE club member - but presumably a lot of its deals are fixes with exit penalties (to gain some sort of commission)

According to MSE poll of suppliers forecast - the 13.5% in Jul (heavily waited towards gas - so over 25% vs c6% electric on Ofgems regional average DD cap unit rates iirc) - is going to increase another 4.5% in Oct

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/are-there-any-cheap-fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it/

If your current DD is based on current unit rates - and not yet including such future rises - it may well increase going forward - say by 18%. Whereas a fix of course will not - but risks locking in higher currrent market pricing if falls dramatically (again not currently in MSE crystal ball forecasting).

My DD for instance has just been dropped 10% following the Apr cap revised pricing (driven largely by govt shift to taxation) - and for me at this time of year a small credit (of c£30) - but now likely to need to go back up to cover July rise (despite electric only so lower rate rise than dual fuel) and that crystal ball Oct rise (so again a rise of c10% by Oct-Dec as winter use kicks in).

Id therefore not use my current DD level but the rather my old one - or at least a fair way towards it - as think its well onto way for c10%+ higher rates for next winter - as a comparison basis - against any current fix the MSE club offering.

QrizB

... so how come the best fixed MSE offer on our current DD payment (£130 p.m.) is only £127? A predicted saving of £3 p.m.

You're currently on a variable tariff. The SVT is set to rise by 13% in July, which will potentially increase your payment from £130pm to £147. So from July you'll be saving £20pm on that fix (if it's still available).