Price increase in July? Potential ceasefire?

Wilkesy91

It seems like there maybe finally a ceasefire with the iran war. I was on 12m fixed November 2025 v1 with octopus energy. I was worried about the prices shooting up in July and then go up even more up from November when my current term would end ready for another fixed term.

Now I decided to refix because of this with octopus for another 12 months. Now I understand I can cancel this as I have 14 days to change my mind, but stuck on what to do now. Are prices going up anyway in July or would they just stay the same as they are now ? Have the government said there will be an increase regardless if the war ends or not ? So I could just go back to my previous contract and wait it out and fix anyway for roughly the same amount in November as the re fix

Thanks

Exodi

As you can appreciate, this is crystal ball stuff, however MSE does provide predictions on where it thinks the price cap will be in the future:

Time period	Price Cap on typical use (1)
PREVIOUS PRICE CAP 1 January 2026 to 31 March 2026 Confirmed	UP 0.2% £1,758 a year
CURRENT PRICE CAP 1 April 2026 to 30 June 2026 Confirmed	DOWN 6.7% £1,641 a year
1 July 2026 to 30 September 2026 Prediction (2)	UP 12.9% £1,853 a year
1 October 2026 to 31 December 2026 Crystal ball-gazing (2)	UP 2.2% £1,893 a year
1 January 2027 to 31 March 2027 Crystal ball-gazing (2)	UP 0.8% £1,909 a year
1 April 2027 to 30 June 2027 Crystal ball-gazing (2)	UP 0.4% £1,916 a year

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/are-there-any-cheap-fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it/

I think it also depends on what your current fix as if you're on a really deal deal, it might not be worth even if you do expect prices to go up (e.g. I have an EV tariff and re-fixing would double my night rate which is about 2/3rds of my total usage).

QrizB

Are prices going up anyway in July

The Ofgem price cap is based on the average energy price seen by Ofgem during a defined period of market surveillance. We are a fair way through that period for the July cap (I think there's only three more weeks to go). Gas prices could drop back to "normal" tomorrow and July's cap would still be going up.

The next cap is due to be published on the 27th of May. We'll know for certain then.

bristolleedsfan

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6667226/price-increase-in-july-potential-ceasefire

Fixes might get cheaper, some already are cheaper than Octopus, current cheapest Eon Next allows subsequent tariff changes without paying exit fee.

born_again

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81989730#Comment_81989730

Energy price cap level dates

We review and update the price cap level every three months. The levels for the next periods will be announced by:

• 27 May 2026 – period 1 July 2026 to 30 September 2026
• 26 August 2026 – period 1 October 2026 to 31 December 2026
• 25 November 2026 – period 1 January 2027 to 31 March 2027

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/information-consumers/energy-advice-households/energy-price-cap-explained

SJMALBA

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81989730#Comment_81989730

The assessment period ends on the 17th of May.

StevieD54

the missus and me are frying our brains trying to choose a fixed deal……we’re currently on a British Gas variable tariff.

I checked and listed 3 possible deals yesterday ………2 from Eon Next (12m and 13m), and a BG one for comparison.

Today, they’ve all changed, albeit slightly. I assume these deals sell out on a daily basis, which is presumably why the name changes slightly e.g. v4 to v5 etc etc. But even unit/daily charge rates change within the same company offers, why on earth do they do that?
We’ve no clue what to do. As you say, if the conflict ends soon, will fixed prices change much? I doubt it.

Wilkesy91

Wish I’d have waited until like the 25th to re fix then waited until the 27th to see how much the newer rate would be for next price gap window

Scot_39

Deals can come and go quickly - a mix of marketing and at times like present especially potentially daily wholesale volatility.

Gas prices have swung around 20% in the Month of May alone from c100-120 pence per Therm

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

Do your fixes above allow free internal swaps to newer deals at those suppliers - as suspect with both as normal will have exit fees to leave - which have been creeping up if swap to another supplier with others in mse lists.

Those terms can change so check wording - as can levels of exit fee.

If free to swap, you need to compare the data on the day and choose your option.

If prices stay high or rise you dont lose.

if prices drop, you can swap, albeit maybe not to the very cheapest on market elsewhere, without fees.

QrizB

The assessment period ends on the 17th of May.

Thanks @SJMALBA - I knew it was ending this month but I couldn't find the exact date!

So, with only ten days left of the assessment period, even if gas prices were to drop to zero we'd still be looking at a substantial increase.

Ildhund

@QrizB couldn't find the exact dates for the assessment period. I couldn't find them at Ofgem either, but they are given by MSE lower down on the same page as the new 'am I on the price cap' tool. I'll pop them in here for ease of reference, in the expectation that they're accurate: