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What Lessons Learned?
Comments
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Sorry, just read you edit. I haven't been watching any other markets as carefully, but I can see they are more affected at the moment. So I've additionally learnt that in addition to the s&p500 being negatively correlated to the US crude oil price, their is some resistance to panic
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The US sector heat map for March shows rotation out of Tech and into industrials, energy and utilities, Tech is down 5.4% YTD and the S&P is at a new low for the year.
2025 ended with EM +19.5%, Global (ex US) +15.8% and US +2%.
2026 todate shows EM -5.5%, Global (ex US) -4.8% and US 0.7%.
So whereas the US performed poorly last year, this year it is performing better than its peers but solely on the back of oil it seems and that seems to be @Cus point also..
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I agree with @masonic who earlier expressed surprise at the lack of global panic, we have not seen a global rush for the exits by retail investors. The thinking in my neck of the woods is that governements will protect the price of oil to some degree and this is proving to be true. Failure to do so would result in massive inflation at a time when economies need stimulation and rates need to be cut. The conclusion by many is that the current crisis will be short lived. 'And let's not forget that Iran's total economy, depends on oil and gas. The blockage at Hormuz may stifle 20% of the global oil output but it also prevents Iran from exporting 100% of it's oil output.
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Well, you might think that "it also prevents Iran from exporting 100% of its oil output", but "despite the U.S.-Israeli war, for the first nine days of March, Iran exported about 30% more oil than in the first nine days of February." -
Israel/the US would need to bomb the Iranian terminals to stop their oil exports. And so far, they haven't:
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I've a four year gap to state pension age, and have been ticking over on part-time work, which I now intend to stop.
I had a lump sum in ISAs, 100% equities, mainly global trackers, which has been there for nearly 5 years and is up almost 60% in that time.
A combination of factors, including; an unpredictable world leader, an anxiety about checking share prices every day, and your previous thread, led me to conclude I was in way over my current risk level.
So I've sold the lot and put it in two STMMFs. Its quite reassuring seeing it tick up a few pounds every day.
Once I'm settled into full retirement, and it's clear that my budget is working, I'm likely to reinvest it, but it won't be 100% equities.
In the meantime I've switched some of it to IG for a 1% bonus.
Only time will tell if it was a sensible move or not, but it has certainly taken away some of my concern, at a period when life is changing anyway.
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Well done for taking action. There will be a middle ground, somewhere between 100% MMF and 100% equities, when you find it you'll be earning more and sleeping soundly.
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"President says forces ‘obliterated’ military targets on Kharg Island and warned its oil infrastructure could be next"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/13/trump-military-kharg-island-iran-oil-export0 -
It's good practise to do something similar anyway, regardless of geopolitics, to avoid sequencing risk.
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I would caution against the practice of temporarily derisking around the date of retirement. It is somewhat similar to the concept of drip-feeding a lump sum into the market: You can be hit by misfortune immediately upon completing the manoeuvre with near-equal impact. In the case of the retirement temporary derisk, bad sequencing at the point you rerisk is just as potent as bad sequencing at the point of retirement for the investor who doesn't temporarily derisk. In my view, the focus should really be on expanding cash reserves, income generation, and/or a low risk bucket, which can serve a purpose throughout. Beyond that the 'middle ground' approach is likely to best serve the retiree.
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If you are a few years off 65, then don't forget the plans from April 2027 to charge the equivalent of interest on cash-like investments in S&S ISAs, and the bar on moving assets from a S&S ISA to a cash ISA - both until you are 65. That might be relevant to some of your forward planning over the next few years.
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