Conflict in the Middle East: Martin Lewis' 'get off the Energy Price Cap' mini briefing

danco

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81908447#Comment_81908447

By the way, that includes those whose heat is supplied by a heat network. Their provider's supply is charged at commercial rates, not domestic, except that the VAT is only 5%

QrizB

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81908023#Comment_81908023

Here are the charts I mentioned back on page 1 of this thread. I'm using the Trading Economics site, which isn't necessarily perfect but is free to access!

5-year chat for spot electricity prices (I think it's day-ahead) in £ per MWh:

5-year chart for natural gas (month-ahead) in £ per therm:

Hopefully they'll agree that the two charts have strong similarities.

Chrysalis

I assume they so similar due to electric prices been forced to adhere to the highest cost of supply?

I am curious how other regions outside of the UK are affected, as its often reported the UK is more vulnerable to the global market than other countries.

MattMattMattUK

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81909899#Comment_81909899

It depends by nation, in the UK we have an over reliance on imported gas, no state ownership of energy supply and a poorly thought out market system, so we get hit by fluctuations much quicker.

France is mostly nuclear, near zero impact, Spain only a small percentage from gas so less impact, the Norway no impact, the US and Canada almost nothing as both are net exporters, captive generation markets and huge domestic production of fossil fuels, Australia nothing as mostly domestic coal and solar.

When gas was cheap the UK market led us to having some of the cheapest (non-subsidised) energy in Europe, but when global energy prices rise we also have no insulation against that. Usually UK short-term ism.

QrizB

@JKenH that's not the UK natural gas chart, it's the US one. The UK one looks more like the electricity chart

Different markets, different prices.

Scot_39

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81909899#Comment_81909899

Apart from renewables since at least 2015 ar1 auction on CfD - the link with gas has been strong.

But you will see other things like the 2nd 3rd sharp spikes in 2022 that arent in the gas prices - which came from other sources.

As well as Ukraine - 22 was a strange year due to the connectors net flow reversing - so uk became a net exporter. Frances nuclear power saw an over 20% annual energy generation drop - impacting not only Frabce but other European markets we traditiinaly imported from Made UK particularly volatile for another reason that year. Its not one of those 2 spikes, but remember the c£9700 from Belgium to keep southern grid up that July.

There's also some mild drift apart in last 9m and last 1-2m of 2025 as well.

uk vulnaribility to global prices

Often associated with lack of gas reserves / storage. Counted in days not weeks in UK.

Suspect sane will be true on oil and refined products - but think saw one front page article on newstand suggesting we have around more like a month of petrol.

But we were also dependent on foreign refineries for in past especially diesel iirc. even before Grangemouth shut. And now Scotland no longer has a single refinery for its 5.5m popn - suspect uk wide now even worse for both petrol and diesel.

Some garages diesel has already spiked c10-15p per litre - petrol a third of that - on last nights regional news. Seems suspiciciously quick. Think saw a post elsewhere of similar problems on heating oil quotes from SW stockist.

JKenH

In response to @QrizB’s post above which unfortunately won’t “quote” on my iPad:

Thank you for pointing that out. Rather than edit the original post I will just delete it and acknowledge my mistake. There certainly has been a reaction in the electricity price to the rise in gas prices which I also happily acknowledge (as I did in my original post). . My point related more to the normal behaviour of electricity prices outside these periods of crisis. As an example electricity prices did not respond mid November to the fall of around 15% in the gas prices rise.

I will leave it at that.

EssexHebridean

Lots of conversation about the increasing diesel prices - but in our traditional quite pricey part of the world, we're only seeing increases by around 3 - 5 pence tops.

Ildhund

Just FYI: a new banner on OVO's 'get a quote' page.

JimmyDeemo

Please can I get a bit of general advice for those who are on the Octopus Tracker; which I gather is probably the worse one to be on during these spikes.

Should I be looking to get off this on to anything? Even a flexible (price cap) tariff? Or is there more nuance here?

I tried fixing last night but it seems the MSE Energy Club deal was pulled (Eon Next). Any thoughts appreciated.