Cornwall Insights Final April Cap Prediction - Ave Duel Fuel DD down £117 - Electric SC Up 9p to 64p

Scot_39

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press-and-media/press-release/cornwall-insight-release-final-april-price-cap-forecast/

Scot_39

Will have to wait until Ofgem actual prices and cap letterv explaination due next week.

but I wont be surprised if thats yet another net zero bonus on the electric SC coming our way if true.

And that AVE rise despite a supposed £20 - 5.5p per day move for whd to unit rates - if that is actually happening.

gpman

So Cornwall are predicting £1640.74 (or £1641 after rounding)

Meanwhile EDF / BG / Eon are predicting £1,643 / £1,635 / £1,633 respectively

Will be interesting to see who turns out to be closest.

Scot_39

i do often wonder about suppliers predictions and perhaps their self interest in selling fixes.

but those are all well within the same margin of error we have seen on past CI final predictions vs Ofgem reality (in the upto £20 range in recent past)

wakeupalarm

Doesn't seem to be any mention of the £39 WHD shift from SC to UR in the commentary. Perhaps this was written before the Ofgem confirmation.

gpman

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81889754#Comment_81889754

Well the internet wouldn't be the internet without a good conspiracy theory, would it?

Here are some recent facts:

On 19th Aug 2025, Cornwall provided a final forecast for Q4 25 of £1737

EDF / BG / Eon predicted on the same date £1,744 / £1,745 / £1,742 respectively

The actual value turned out to be £1755

On 18th Nov 2025, Cornwall provided a final forecast for Q1 26 of £1733

I only have an Eon prediction from about the same date of £1737

but the previous week EDF / BG / Eon were predicting £1,757 / £1,750 / £1,738 respectively

The actual value turned out to be £1758

So it is not the suspected self interest of suppliers selling their fixes that concerns me (if that were proven to be the case, then they don't appear to be doing a very good job), but rather the accuracy of the CI forecasts.

Scot_39

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81889813#Comment_81889813

they specificalky mentioned budget in - WHD not in when did their december update for April.

a lower £1620 cap and a higher 65p electric SC., lower 23.33p unit rate vs todays 64p and 23.64p

the £20 according to ML - h3 could of course be wrong - would by 5.5p SC 0.7p unit rate at 2700 kWh if you assune equalised at cap tdcv iirc