No change to tax free cash on 26 November

LHW99

Albermarle said:

Bobziz said:

FT "The UK government ditched plans to raise income tax rates after an improved fiscal forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility, according to people familiar with the matter."

I can believe that, as the initial larger estimates of the black hole ( eg £50Bn), seem to have subsided down to a more manageable £20Bn. Presumably in part due to the usual toing and froing pre budget, between the Treasury and the OBR.

Experts don't seem to have a single view on that, I heard an estimate of between £30Bn and £50Bn on R4 this morning.

MeteredOut

Cobbler_tone said:

MeteredOut said:

tiptop1_2 said:

Anything could still happen. The govt are changing their minds every day. It's ridiculous.

This isn't how a govt on top of their game act, it's a shambles.

No they are not. The media headlines are changing every day. And those that click on them and promote them are falling for it.

Maybe not "every day" but a tad blinkered if you genuinely think there is not some serious flip flopping at play. There was a reason for that pretty unprecedented pre-budget speech last week. She all but spelt out that the manifesto promises were about to be broken....as for 1p/2p, that was speculation.
Not all of the 'press speculation' is guesswork. It is carefully briefed and leaked information, often to judge the response. How come Streeting had to roll out is comedy act on breakfast TV? 
You can normally pick out the scaremongering, as it gets reported as though it IS happening, although the ever reliable  BBC lead story opens with "Chancellor Rachel Reeves has decided against raising income tax rates at the Budget later this month." Fact or speculation?

It is common sense to say we don't know 100% until it is announced and in the meantime things will be changing regularly at no.11 and even when it is announced, they are subject to getting reversed pretty sharpish.

The response over the past two days is that the UK markets don't like what they are hearing....unless that is all the press' fault too? 

There's no doubt there's an element of kite-flying at play (politicians feed the media tid-bits of information in exchange for more favourable editorial bias), but of course economists are going to consider different things, and deciding not going ahead with one does not make it a u-turn, flip-flopping or a change of mind, it simply means they've decided not to go ahead with it. But, people will call it what they want to back their pre-existing opinions.

I agree the market does not like indecision, which is why there has been a bit of turmoil (but hardly a lot in the grand scheme of things), but I'd suggest most of the movement over the past few days is in reaction to the US markets rather than what's happening on these shores. Exchange rates have been affected by the indecision though. 

Cobbler_tone

MeteredOut said:

Cobbler_tone said:

MeteredOut said:

tiptop1_2 said:

Anything could still happen. The govt are changing their minds every day. It's ridiculous.

This isn't how a govt on top of their game act, it's a shambles.

No they are not. The media headlines are changing every day. And those that click on them and promote them are falling for it.

Maybe not "every day" but a tad blinkered if you genuinely think there is not some serious flip flopping at play. There was a reason for that pretty unprecedented pre-budget speech last week. She all but spelt out that the manifesto promises were about to be broken....as for 1p/2p, that was speculation.
Not all of the 'press speculation' is guesswork. It is carefully briefed and leaked information, often to judge the response. How come Streeting had to roll out is comedy act on breakfast TV? 
You can normally pick out the scaremongering, as it gets reported as though it IS happening, although the ever reliable  BBC lead story opens with "Chancellor Rachel Reeves has decided against raising income tax rates at the Budget later this month." Fact or speculation?

It is common sense to say we don't know 100% until it is announced and in the meantime things will be changing regularly at no.11 and even when it is announced, they are subject to getting reversed pretty sharpish.

The response over the past two days is that the UK markets don't like what they are hearing....unless that is all the press' fault too? 

There's no doubt there's an element of kite-flying at play (politicians feed the media a little tid-bit of information in exchange for more favourable editorial bias), but of course economists are going to consider different things, and deciding not going ahead with one does not make it a u-turn, flip-flopping or a change of mind, it just means they've decided not to go ahead with it.

Whatever way you slice it, or want
to label it, it’s a tad concerning that they are clearly making major adjustments less than two weeks out. A combo of financial impact, the likely kickback and maybe most importantly, self preservation!
There’s a fine line between strategic thinking and absolute chaos. It’s not as though there is not plenty of past evidence for your chosen terms.
Roll on the 26th to adjust plans accordingly and agree that they are best to listen to the likely mood of the nation. The people they are serving.

Albermarle

Cobbler_tone said:

MeteredOut said:

Cobbler_tone said:

MeteredOut said:

tiptop1_2 said:

Anything could still happen. The govt are changing their minds every day. It's ridiculous.

This isn't how a govt on top of their game act, it's a shambles.

No they are not. The media headlines are changing every day. And those that click on them and promote them are falling for it.

Maybe not "every day" but a tad blinkered if you genuinely think there is not some serious flip flopping at play. There was a reason for that pretty unprecedented pre-budget speech last week. She all but spelt out that the manifesto promises were about to be broken....as for 1p/2p, that was speculation.
Not all of the 'press speculation' is guesswork. It is carefully briefed and leaked information, often to judge the response. How come Streeting had to roll out is comedy act on breakfast TV? 
You can normally pick out the scaremongering, as it gets reported as though it IS happening, although the ever reliable  BBC lead story opens with "Chancellor Rachel Reeves has decided against raising income tax rates at the Budget later this month." Fact or speculation?

It is common sense to say we don't know 100% until it is announced and in the meantime things will be changing regularly at no.11 and even when it is announced, they are subject to getting reversed pretty sharpish.

The response over the past two days is that the UK markets don't like what they are hearing....unless that is all the press' fault too? 

There's no doubt there's an element of kite-flying at play (politicians feed the media a little tid-bit of information in exchange for more favourable editorial bias), but of course economists are going to consider different things, and deciding not going ahead with one does not make it a u-turn, flip-flopping or a change of mind, it just means they've decided not to go ahead with it.

Whatever way you slice it, or want
to label it, it’s a tad concerning that they are clearly making major adjustments less than two weeks out. A combo of financial impact, the likely kickback and maybe most importantly, self preservation!
There’s a fine line between strategic thinking and absolute chaos. It’s not as though there is not plenty of past evidence for your chosen terms.
Roll on the 26th to adjust plans accordingly and agree that they are best to listen to the likely mood of the nation. The people they are serving.

I read somewhere that it was normal that the budget details are not really fixed/are subject to change right up until the last minute.

MeteredOut

Cobbler_tone said:

MeteredOut said:

Cobbler_tone said:

MeteredOut said:

tiptop1_2 said:

Anything could still happen. The govt are changing their minds every day. It's ridiculous.

This isn't how a govt on top of their game act, it's a shambles.

No they are not. The media headlines are changing every day. And those that click on them and promote them are falling for it.

Maybe not "every day" but a tad blinkered if you genuinely think there is not some serious flip flopping at play. There was a reason for that pretty unprecedented pre-budget speech last week. She all but spelt out that the manifesto promises were about to be broken....as for 1p/2p, that was speculation.
Not all of the 'press speculation' is guesswork. It is carefully briefed and leaked information, often to judge the response. How come Streeting had to roll out is comedy act on breakfast TV? 
You can normally pick out the scaremongering, as it gets reported as though it IS happening, although the ever reliable  BBC lead story opens with "Chancellor Rachel Reeves has decided against raising income tax rates at the Budget later this month." Fact or speculation?

It is common sense to say we don't know 100% until it is announced and in the meantime things will be changing regularly at no.11 and even when it is announced, they are subject to getting reversed pretty sharpish.

The response over the past two days is that the UK markets don't like what they are hearing....unless that is all the press' fault too? 

There's no doubt there's an element of kite-flying at play (politicians feed the media a little tid-bit of information in exchange for more favourable editorial bias), but of course economists are going to consider different things, and deciding not going ahead with one does not make it a u-turn, flip-flopping or a change of mind, it just means they've decided not to go ahead with it.

Whatever way you slice it, or want
to label it, it’s a tad concerning that they are clearly making major adjustments less than two weeks out. A combo of financial impact, the likely kickback and maybe most importantly, self preservation!
There’s a fine line between strategic thinking and absolute chaos. It’s not as though there is not plenty of past evidence for your chosen terms.
Roll on the 26th to adjust plans accordingly and agree that they are best to listen to the likely mood of the nation. The people they are serving.

I don't want to label it anything. And I'm not concerned that they're still working out the detail with a little under 2 weeks to go.

I'm not interested in what the papers report - they exist to make money, not provide news. I'll base my opinion on what is actually done in the budget, not online gossip.

ColdIron

Albermarle said:

Cobbler_tone said:

MeteredOut said:

Cobbler_tone said:

MeteredOut said:

tiptop1_2 said:

Anything could still happen. The govt are changing their minds every day. It's ridiculous.

This isn't how a govt on top of their game act, it's a shambles.

No they are not. The media headlines are changing every day. And those that click on them and promote them are falling for it.

Maybe not "every day" but a tad blinkered if you genuinely think there is not some serious flip flopping at play. There was a reason for that pretty unprecedented pre-budget speech last week. She all but spelt out that the manifesto promises were about to be broken....as for 1p/2p, that was speculation.
Not all of the 'press speculation' is guesswork. It is carefully briefed and leaked information, often to judge the response. How come Streeting had to roll out is comedy act on breakfast TV? 
You can normally pick out the scaremongering, as it gets reported as though it IS happening, although the ever reliable  BBC lead story opens with "Chancellor Rachel Reeves has decided against raising income tax rates at the Budget later this month." Fact or speculation?

It is common sense to say we don't know 100% until it is announced and in the meantime things will be changing regularly at no.11 and even when it is announced, they are subject to getting reversed pretty sharpish.

The response over the past two days is that the UK markets don't like what they are hearing....unless that is all the press' fault too? 

There's no doubt there's an element of kite-flying at play (politicians feed the media a little tid-bit of information in exchange for more favourable editorial bias), but of course economists are going to consider different things, and deciding not going ahead with one does not make it a u-turn, flip-flopping or a change of mind, it just means they've decided not to go ahead with it.

Whatever way you slice it, or want
to label it, it’s a tad concerning that they are clearly making major adjustments less than two weeks out. A combo of financial impact, the likely kickback and maybe most importantly, self preservation!
There’s a fine line between strategic thinking and absolute chaos. It’s not as though there is not plenty of past evidence for your chosen terms.
Roll on the 26th to adjust plans accordingly and agree that they are best to listen to the likely mood of the nation. The people they are serving.

I read somewhere that it was normal that the budget details are not really fixed/are subject to change right up until the last minute.

That depends whether you want to run it past the OBR or go naked. Certainly with the big ticket items

Bobziz

'best to listen to the likely mood of the nation. The people they are serving."

And perhaps therein lies the problem for this and previous governments, we all want to be able to have our cake and eat it. We get the government we deserve.

Secret2ndAccount

All I would ask is that, whatever they say on Nov 26th, they do it, and don't do another U-turn 3 weeks or 3 mths later.

michaels

LHW99 said:

Albermarle said:

Bobziz said:

FT "The UK government ditched plans to raise income tax rates after an improved fiscal forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility, according to people familiar with the matter."

I can believe that, as the initial larger estimates of the black hole ( eg £50Bn), seem to have subsided down to a more manageable £20Bn. Presumably in part due to the usual toing and froing pre budget, between the Treasury and the OBR.

Experts don't seem to have a single view on that, I heard an estimate of between £30Bn and £50Bn on R4 this morning.

It is tricky, if the markets believe the debt is sustainable then borrowing costs falling and the deficit forecast comes down.

Of course if the govt instead uses the lower deficit to increase spending then the bond markets can spook again and the deficit looks unsustainable.  There may not be a equilibrium but something inherently unstable.

artyboy

Secret2ndAccount said:

All I would ask is that, whatever they say on Nov 26th, they do it, and don't do another U-turn 3 weeks or 3 mths later.

Thats one helluva ask!