Past performance...

aroominyork

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Nick Train: "Thank God for that."

LT's four OEICs are down to about £5,500m AUM, including a paltry £39m in the North American fund. This can surely no longer be seen as a run of bad luck or quality being out of fashion given that quality factor ETFs have performed fine. His IT's factsheet explains why he is shifting from consumer brands - his mantra area for many years - into digital and IP businesses, but that has not worked so far. Maybe it's time for him to pack up and retire to Mauritius.

SH88SH88

aroominyork said:

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Nick Train: "Thank God for that."

LT's four OEICs are down to about £5,500m AUM, including a paltry £39m in the North American fund. This can surely no longer be seen as a run of bad luck or quality being out of fashion given that quality factor ETFs have performed fine. His IT's factsheet explains why he is shifting from consumer brands - his mantra area for many years - into digital and IP businesses, but that has not worked so far. Maybe it's time for him to pack up and retire to Mauritius.

One significant issue is that his funds (plus his IT's also) tend to be very concentrated, FGT often has over 50% of the entire trust covered by the top 10 holdings . It only takes 3 or 4 laggards to wreck the entire trust's performance.  However,  he's not alone,  both Terry Smith and Keith Ashworth-Lord (at Fundsmith and Buffettology) are roughly in the same boat. 

aroominyork

SH88SH88 said:

One significant issue is that his funds (plus his IT's also) tend to be very concentrated, FGT often has over 50% of the entire trust covered by the top 10 holdings . It only takes 3 or 4 laggards to wreck the entire trust's performance.  However,  he's not alone,  both Terry Smith and Keith Ashworth-Lord (at Fundsmith and Buffettology) are roughly in the same boat. 

Over 90% is in the top 10 https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/f/finsbury-growth-and-inc-trust-ord-25p-share

I hadn't looked at Buffettology. It takes talented stock picking to be flat over five years when the UK All Share has risen 80%. 

I suggested Mauritius so Nick can rent a modest bedroom in Terry Smith's house.

GeoffTF

aroominyork said:

It takes talented stock picking to be flat over five years when the UK All Share has risen 80%.

People bought his fund because he had a run of good luck. Now he has had a run of bad luck. The future? His luck could be good or bad. Nobody knows.