Annual Usage Estimation BG - Has anyone else spotted this?

DabDab22

Despite cutting my actual gas use month after month, my estimated annual usage keeps going up:

May: 9,538 kWh

Jun: 245 kWh used → est. 10,085

Jul: 192 kWh used → est. 10,608

Aug: 167 kWh used → est. 11,678

I complained, and BG told me it’s “based on the last 12 months” – but that directly contradicts the fact my usage is going down.

This matters because those inflated numbers feed into tariff comparison sites, meaning I can’t get the fairest deals – at the worst possible time, during a cost of living crisis.

Anyone else experiencing this

Robin9

Based on your own actual readings how does that compare with BG ?

As long as you are consistent with the estimates/actual you use it doesn't matter. Just don't use a low figure.

molerat

The problem is though that any DD is based on estimated use so it can be a PITA to get the supplier to set the DD at a reasonable level and it is "something else you have to do".  My daughter's use is around 4700 and reducing month on month with accurate monthly reads supplied.  The EAC had been set at 5200 which is in the ballpark but suddenly shot up to 7500 and the supplier increased the DD by £60 to cover it.  A phone call sorted the DD but you shouldn't have to do that.

EssexHebridean

As a high user anyway, I suspect they are looking at the possibility that if we have a cold winter then your use is likely to be far higher than the average.  Allowing for you using a lot of gas through the summer compared to many, what do you predict that your 12-month use is likely to be? 

The predictions don't make any difference to your ability to get the best prices though - as you should be comparing unit rates for those in any event, not a guesstimated headline figure for your monthly payments. 

Scot_39

If you dont like their rolling guestimate get old bills and use that instead - their should be records on line if not kept yourself.

My bills estimates were never 100% spot on , neither do they match the figures EOn used in past at cap changes to predict next years costs.

But seldom out by more than a few %, although at one stage close to 10%. 

And I used to track my usage daily, weekly and monthly in own spreadsheets and / or  Octave for real maths (but have been a bit lax on updating daily weekly records last year or so).

My guess is that they arent simple full 12m and so their somehow factoring in more high use winter readings as you approach winter - which I am not sure they should be for as you say ideally annual bill comparison purposes.

Its not like last Aug you used -900kWh of gas to drag  up 1070kWh including recent 170kWh, on a strict rolling 12m basis.


Are you on an annualised DD plan ?.
Could It be reverse estimating in an offset to follow Ofgem guidance on debt tgat sees large suppliers like Ovo and Octopus setting minimum spring balance in annual cycle.
Which at least one supplier Ovo iirc targeting adjusting to that cycle by Mar 26 for their customers.

mmmmikey

Hi - "based on the last 12 months" doesn't mean they assume the next 12 months will be the same. It's probably means something like "last winter was milder than average, so you'll probably use more over the next 12 months, so based on the last 12 months we expect your usage to be......"

These are only ever estimates used to set a payment amount and only make a marginal difference to the final cost and comparison sites if any at all. If you want to take it to the nth degree I suppose you could compare the different deals at, say 9,000, 10,000 and 11,000 kWh and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that depending on the assumption you make you might find a difference in the cheapest supplier, but that's unlikely and if there is a difference it's likely to be minimal.

Hope this makes sense?

GlitterMedusa

DabDab22 said:

This matters because those inflated numbers feed into tariff comparison sites, meaning I can’t get the fairest deals – at the worst possible time, during a cost of living crisis.

You can input your own figures into the tariff comparison sites, you don't have to use the ones from your provider 

matelodave

GlitterMedusa said:

DabDab22 said:

This matters because those inflated numbers feed into tariff comparison sites, meaning I can’t get the fairest deals – at the worst possible time, during a cost of living crisis.

You can input your own figures into the tariff comparison sites, you don't have to use the ones from your provider 

That's what I do and I get a DD that reflects my consumption rather than some random guesstimate. It's really not rocket science.

Eldi_Dos

Did Fix this morning onto BG V93 for my gas and worked out my breakeven point to be around 7200 kWh compared to existing fix,so if we have a mild winter I hope to be ahead, if it turns out to be a high consumption they will be ahead.

With their previous usage information avaliable on my account it was not hard to make the decision.

bob2302

DabDab22 said:

Despite cutting my actual gas use month after month, my estimated annual usage keeps going up:

May: 9,538 kWh

Jun: 245 kWh used → est. 10,085

Jul: 192 kWh used → est. 10,608

Aug: 167 kWh used → est. 11,678

I complained, and BG told me it’s “based on the last 12 months” – but that directly contradicts the fact my usage is going down.

This matters because those inflated numbers feed into tariff comparison sites, meaning I can’t get the fairest deals – at the worst possible time, during a cost of living crisis.

Anyone else experiencing this

You only quoted figures for summer, which provides no evidence that your annual usage is going down.

rafraf03

Interestingly I am having a similar issue with BG (been ongoing for about a week now). (Not looking for answers just providing my experience)

The estimated usage they gave me is in the right ball park (Estimated annual usage for gas is 15,000 kWh and Estimated annual usage of Electricity is : 9,000 kWh), but the Estimated Cost is wild: £10,000 for electricity alone putting the rate at £1.10 per kWh.

It seems like the Customer Support agents aren't able to fix this.

The knock on effect is that they wanted to increase our Direct Debit to eye-watering sums (eventhough we are in credit too) Luckily that got fixed.
But also when looking to change tariff before the recent cap increase, the proposed tariff were also somewhat based on the Estimated Cost rather than the estimated usage. So I obviously missed out... 

I am hopeful a different provider will do a better job !