Premium bonds winnings and odd pattern

greekpig

Hello.

I'm guessing that this is an age-old topic, but here we go...

My wife and I both have had premium bonds for quite some time, and I have records of all of our purchases of bonds and wins from April 2022.

There may be a very minor discrepancy in our holdings over time, but we have basically tracked each other with our investments into premium bonds over that time and the sum of money held. So for instance it could be that I invested some money in one month and my wife invested in the next month, something that happened just twice within the time we've held them, so I'd suggest not massively significant over the time we have held them.

Over 42 months of holding premium bonds I have won more than my wife for 21 months, she has won more than me for 13 months, and we've won the same for 8 months. Over this period I have won a total sum not quite double that of my wife. Over the four years I have won more annually each year than my wife in every year.

I don't know when this drops from being just chance and becomes statistically significant, but it appears that consistently I win more than my wife over years with just small wins, and it's all adding up to a picture. I'd say that I approximate to not quite a return of the advertised annual return - not far off, whereas my wife approximates to half of that.

I'm mystified as to how this can happen, and not sure of whether to contact NS&I over it, so any advice would be really appreicated.

Many thanks.

Kim_13

It’s random chance, so there is no recourse other than for your wife to pull her money out if she is not happy. If she has invested for tax reasons then I would consider selling and buying again, despite missing a draw. 

Of 3 full holdings in the family, mine and another seem to even out over time but the third seems consistently luckier than both of them. Mine generally doesn’t do badly, so I’m happy enough.

sgthammer

ERNIE must like you.

I'm honestly quite impressed you win often enough to even track this. Roughly how much do you have invested (number of zeroes will do, I'm not prying)?

There's no point querying it with NS&I, nobody you'll speak to has any control or insight over how prizewinners are selected. All you'll get is congratulations.

flaneurs_lobster

...and what if your wife wins £5000 or £10,000 next month? 

Fact is that each premium bond has an equal chance of winning a prize as every other premium bond. You either believe this or you are starting towards theories around why some bonds are "luckier" than others, none of which have ever been found to be true (statistically).

DjangoUnchained

i think you can find a pattern in anything if you try hard enough. It would be a big coincidence if you both won exactly the same all the time. One of you is bound to win more then the other.

greekpig

Thanks both for the replles.

I started tracking when we noticed the pattern, and I had enough information historically to go back to April 22.

Without giving much away, if you have a large holding you win something in most months.

Bearing in mind neither of us have outstripped the advertised return I'd suggest ernie doesn't like my wife!

london21

Luck, chance and probability. 

Iona_Penny

I hold £20000 and feel that I am pretty happy with the winnings. June £25 July £100 August £100 & today £150 - I live in hope of something with more 0! I have no idea if this is 'expected' return!

Albermarle

greekpig said:

Thanks both for the replles.

I started tracking when we noticed the pattern, and I had enough information historically to go back to April 22.

Without giving much away, if you have a large holding you win something in most months.

Bearing in mind neither of us have outstripped the advertised return I'd suggest ernie doesn't like my wife!

You may find that the number of prizes you have both won is not that different. Just that you have picked up a few more £100 prizes rather just £25s and £50s.
Like a previous poster said she might win a bigger prize, which will turn your theory on its head.

akm2018

greekpig said:

Thanks both for the replles.

I started tracking when we noticed the pattern, and I had enough information historically to go back to April 22.

Without giving much away, if you have a large holding you win something in most months.

Bearing in mind neither of us have outstripped the advertised return I'd suggest ernie doesn't like my wife!

Let's do some maths.

Say you have 10 bonds, that is, a £10 holding

In a particular month, each bond has a 1 in 22000 chance of winning something. Which is to say, a 21999/22000 chance of NOT winning something. So with your 10 bonds, your chances of NOT winning something, ten times are:

(21999/22000) ^ 10 = 0.9995455475

So almost every month, you won't win something. But you might!

At the other end of the scale, with the max holding of 50000 bonds, your chances of NOT winning something, with every bond, are:

(21999/22000) ^ 50000 = 0.10302548159

Note that this IS NOT ZERO. Yes, 90% of months you will win SOMETHING but 10% of months you won't.

In the middle, someone with a £10000 holding has a ~ 63% chance of getting nothing, in a given month. They have a 0.4% chance of getting nothing in a given YEAR. They'll probably think there's something wrong, or that ernie doesn't like them, if that happens! But now consider a group of 250 10k-holders. This "something wrong" is quite probably going to happen to one of them, every year...

london21

Iona_Penny said:

I hold £20000 and feel that I am pretty happy with the winnings. June £25 July £100 August £100 & today £150 - I live in hope of something with more 0! I have no idea if this is 'expected' return!

You’re on the lucky side! Did you invest everything as a lump sum?
I have £50k in, and my returns have been:

• May: £0
• August: £0
• September: £0
• March: £200
• June: £50
• July: £225