NS&I: Premium Bonds - older than 1990s

eskbanker

dcs34 said:

eskbanker said:

As I recall, they published a stat that something like 97% of premium bonds had been bought since 2000, so it's unsurprising that they dominate the prize list - obviously the world has moved on from people spending a quid on a premium bond and the average holding is now multiple thousands, with about 700K+ holding the maximum £50K I think.

And no, the notion that Ernie is more predisposed to pick more recent bonds is a myth!

97% being bought since 2000 is an amazing statistic - no wonder that myth keeps coming up!

And of course the myth is cyclically self-fulfilling: if people believe that newer bonds win more often, then they cash in older bonds and open new ones. Which means there are more newer bonds. Which means, for a fixed number of winning bonds, more of them will be newer bonds. So newer bonds seem more likely to win (because there are more of them), so people cash in older bonds and...so on.

I just went back to try to find where I came across that - it's no longer published by NS&I as far as I can see but an old archived page copy with 2019 data referred to:

Are newer Bonds luckier?

Every eligible £1 Bond has the same chance to win a prize in every monthly draw. Newer Bonds seem luckier because over 95% of those currently held have been purchase since 2000.

and at that stage there were 'only' 80bn bonds in circulation, so less than 4bn would have been acquired pre-2000, i.e. now that there are 132bn active, that 4bn, even if they're all still current, can only be less than about 3% of the total.

nellymaz

Interesting thread as it's something I'd noticed, too so it's good to read some explanations. I've discovered this thread today after noticing not a single one of the Oct 25 medium/large prize winners are from Hereford and Worcester, so I started looking into the odds of an entire area not appearing on the winners spreadsheet in any particular month, so I'm slightly off topic (I'm not allowed to create new threads yet!) but it'd be interesting to have an official rundown of the many, many stats Premium Bonds could provide to justify me not winning. PS Guess which area I live in?!!! #notamillionairethismonth 

Enzo_L

nellymaz said:

Interesting thread as it's something I'd noticed, too so it's good to read some explanations. I've discovered this thread today after noticing not a single one of the Oct 25 medium/large prize winners are from Hereford and Worcester, so I started looking into the odds of an entire area not appearing on the winners spreadsheet in any particular month, so I'm slightly off topic (I'm not allowed to create new threads yet!) but it'd be interesting to have an official rundown of the many, many stats Premium Bonds could provide to justify me not winning. PS Guess which area I live in?!!! #notamillionairethismonth 

There's are two  £100k prize winners from Worcestershire, two £50k prize winners from Worcestershire, a £25k winner from Worcestershire, etc etc.

You need to look harder.

Noosabeachdreamer

I have premium bonds from 1958, I have never won a prize. I have notified the of al address changes over the years. When I contacted them they could not confirm that the bonds were in their sysystem, just that only a small proportion of numbers are entered into the draw each month. I am left wondering if there a simply millions of bond numbers that are in a 'dormant' file and will never be entered into a draw or have just been deleted to save space. The news on BBC today of NSI errors, system faults and ineffective performance makes me wonder more, how large is the Premium Bond scandal?

masonic

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81937900#Comment_81937900

That seems like quite a leap. Exactly what did they tell you? The most likely explanation for what you describe is that some of the bonds were cashed in at some point between 1958 and today. The story in the press today appears to relate to issues when the original holder died. There doesn't seem to be anything in the original Telegraph article about specific bonds not being entered into draws.

Section62

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81937900#Comment_81937900

just that only a small proportion of numbers are entered into the draw each month

There seems to be some confusion, as that isn't true.

The process is that a large set of random numbers are generated. That dataset is checked to make sure it is random.

The numbers are then matched against Premium Bond numbers. The first eligible bond number gets a £1m prize. The process is repeated until there are no more prizes to allocate.

Lots of the randomly generated numbers won't match to an eligible bond - either because the bond wasn't (or hasn't been) issued, or has been cashed in, or is ineligible to win a prize (e.g. too new, or belonging to the estate of a deceased person after 12 months). So the process moves on to the next number in the randomly generated list.

Bond numbers aren't entered into the draw as such - ERNIE doesn't look at all the bond numbers to pick one. So it follows that "only a small proportion of numbers are entered into the draw each month" doesn't represent how the system actually works.

mattojgb

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81937900#Comment_81937900

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81937916#Comment_81937916

Quote from a BBC News piece "It seems that customer loyalty - and the length of time some of these accounts have been held for - has led NS&I to lose track and control of some of the details."

pbcpdeveloper

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81937900#Comment_81937900

How many bonds? If you have 1 bond and the odds are 23,000 to 1, for a monthly draw you could be expected to wait 1,916.7 years for your first win. Just be patient :)

badger09

I posted on the main Premium Bond wins thread on 6th Feb that I had won £100 on a £1 PB. It was one of £18, bought for me as a young child in Dec 1956, which I kept for sentimental reasons. Unsurprisingly my 1st ever prize but I was inordinately pleased to have won anything

PeteMc

I won £50 from a total holding (25 yrs old) of £3 in 1992.

Yesterday received a PB "Congratulations" at my address for a £100 win from a £150 holding for someone who lived at my address more than 10 years ago.