Estimated Usage

Ildhund

Swipe said:

... their erroneous estimates get sent to the national meter registrar ...

I don't think that's what happens. We're talking about two different numbers here: for electricity, an Estimated Annual Consumption (EAC), the one on the national Elexon database calculated by an unbelievably tortuous process based on typical usages and meter readings, and a Future Annual Consumption estimate, worked out by the supplier according to its own rules. The two are not necessarily the same. 

The national database starts from some basic figure, not unlike Ofgem's Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCV), and then adjusts in response to meter readings submitted by the supplier, so that it will in due course amount to the previous 12 months' usage. The supplier will base its estimate on whatever evidence it has, ostensibly only using the EAC where evidence is lacking and adjusting it as more evidence (i.e. meter readings) become available. There will thus be different experiences with different suppliers. In my case, the FAC reverted to a ridiculously high base level on a meter exchange; it didn't get down to the actual annual advance until a year later.

Swipe

Ildhund said:

Swipe said:

... their erroneous estimates get sent to the national meter registrar ...

I don't think that's what happens. We're talking about two different numbers here: for electricity, an Estimated Annual Consumption (EAC), the one on the national Elexon database calculated by an unbelievably tortuous process based on typical usages and meter readings, and a Future Annual Consumption estimate, worked out by the supplier according to its own rules. The two are not necessarily the same. 

The national database starts from some basic figure, not unlike Ofgem's Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCV), and then adjusts in response to meter readings submitted by the supplier, so that it will in due course amount to the previous 12 months' usage. The supplier will base its estimate on whatever evidence it has, ostensibly only using the EAC where evidence is lacking and adjusting it as more evidence (i.e. meter readings) become available. There will thus be different experiences with different suppliers. In my case, the FAC reverted to a ridiculously high base level on a meter exchange; it didn't get down to the actual annual advance until a year later.

That makes sense. My estimated usage was corrupted when a Morrisons Data Services meter reader on behalf of Eon Next came looking for an old mechanical meter that was removed 3 years prior by EDF. He insisted on taking the closing meter readings on the sticker left behind. I told him not to record it but he went ahead and gave that info to Eon Next who added it to my account as closing readings for that specific date and marked it as an old meter no longer in use. Ever since then, my estimated usage seemed to revert to the amount based on the old meter's historical usage when electricity was very cheap.

I have raised calls with Eon next who assure me it has now been resolved (the old meter record and readings have now gone from my account) but my erroneous estimated usage is still on my bills and also sometimes picked up if I obtain any quotes. Hence the reason I will always go with variable direct debit so I don't have to keep calling up to get my fixed amount reset every couple of months. Hopefully it will reset itself next month after the 12 month anniversary of the meter reader's visit.

Swipe

mmmmikey said:

Swipe said:

EssexHebridean said:

If you have accurate use figures yourself  then any such attempted doubling can be challenged successfully in any event - remember, the supplier has a duty to ensure that the amount they charge on the DD is fair and reasonable. 

As has been said here before, variable DD is an excellent solution for many folk, but can be a complete road to disaster for many others, and particularly at this time of year making it a blanket recommendation is a dangerous game. (And before it’s said, there can be many reasons why budgeting for VDD can be an issue, and not all of them relate to people being “too stupid to manage it”) 

Not really, just create a standing order to put what you would have paid on fixed monthly into a savings account with your main bank and move the amount over ready to be taken when you get your bill. Any existing credit on the energy account will be used against any bills before it is requested by variable DD.

It's not that easy unfortunately, which is why I agree that this isn't a good blanket recommendation. For example, having a savings account can affect your entitlement to benefits - and no doubt there are other examples. That's not to say I think your standing order / savings account is necessarily a bad idea, it's just that (as you've sort of demonstrated with your post) the implications of doing this aren't always obvious.

I agree with your points, but it was EssexHebridean who assumed I'd recommended Variable DD as a blanket recommendation. When in fact I merely stated:

All well and good until one or two months into your new supplier contract they double your direct debit based on the erroneous estimate recorded at the national meter registrar. Better to just go with a variable direct debit if that is the case.