Solar & Aluminum ion batteries

Martyn1981

ed110220 said:

You can already buy lithium iron phosphate prismatic cells for £45/kWh retail so I think batteries are now much like solar where installation accounts for most of the cost. Batteries aren't as far along as PV, but I don't expect falling cell prices and new technologies to bring installed prices down that much. Probably more important is getting home batteries from fairly niche products with corresponding high markups to more mass market level.

I think you are spot on with the main reason why other battery chemistries may now take longer to progress. When Lithium spodumeme prices were really high, technologies like sodium ion where getting a lot more support. But as lithium production ramped up and prices fell back down (despite far greater demand), that probably undermined the investment in the alternatives.

Just a random graph/article I found to show how quickly the market price dropped, as the massive increase in demand was met by an even greater increase in production.



Folk will probably recall the FUDsters telling us that there wasn't enough lithium on the planet for an all BEV transport fleet. But the truth was that there wasn't enough lithium production, at the time, but nothing to prevent it being ramped up. In fact I think China even tried to slow down production a year back, so as to prevent the market price collapsing.

Nothing wrong of course with sodium ion, and all the other possibilities. It's just that investment in their development and expansion is probably closely dependant on the cost of Li-ion batts, so may have fallen off a bit lately.

As you say, the whole product, just like PV, installed, involves far more costs. Even a largeish 6 or 7kWp PV system will only incurr about £1k of panel costs. There's probably a point where we should be discussing the potential to save on scaffolding costs rather than PV technology. 

Martyn1981

I saw this vid yesterday, and thought it covered the recent discussion, albeit for sodium ion batts, but addressing the lower cost potential, v's the need to scale up first, whilst LFP batts are already very cheap and dominating the market.

But it does sound like sodium has enormous potential, at ultra cheap prices, especially with a battery giant like CATL working on it.

How CATL Made Batteries 90% Cheaper (And What Happens Next)

How CATL Made Batteries 90% Cheaper (And What Happens Next). What if I told you the world's largest battery company just announced batteries that cost as low as $10 per kilowatt hour? Not $100. Ten. And the kicker? They're using salt. Yes, the same stuff sitting on your kitchen table. But CATL makes more lithium batteries than anyone else on the planet. They're literally winning the lithium game. So why are they suddenly pivoting to a technology that's been considered second-rate for decades? No technical papers. No detailed explanations. Just bold claims and two new products ready to hit the market. So is this the real deal that changes everything? Or are we looking at tech hype that’s too salty to swallow?

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 said:

 In fact I think China even tried to slow down production a year back, so as to prevent the market price collapsing.

Just to say (and to prove how boring I am), the above has just happened again. China is trying to reduce production, to keep prices from droping too far.

Good news, in a weird way, for future Li-ion battery supply, as there is clearly more than enough. And I assume, also good news for all these other cheaper solutions, giving them more chance to scale up as a price competitor.

Not sure I should dare say this out loud (yet?), but this all suggests to me, that future battery supply and prices will be fine as we head towards the 'electrify everything' future.

Lithium Bulls Getting Ahead of Themselves on China Supply Cut

The suspension of a big mine in China may be breathing new life into a depressed global lithium market, but the accompanying rally in shares of lithium producers has run too hard, too fast, analysts say.

Lithium stocks began the week with a bang, chasing prices for the battery metal higher after China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, said its license for a mine in Jiangxi province had expired and that production there had been suspended.

Shares in some lithium producers climbed by more than 20% on Monday, as investors bet that Chinese supply cuts could extend beyond the CATL mine closure. Beijing is generally seeking to curb excess industrial capacity, an issue that has fueled hyper-competition and worsened deflationary pressures.

debitcardmayhem

There is an article in PC Pro, LiCO2 battery , just at tproving stage https://www.magzter.com/en/stories/technology/PC-Pro/BATTERIES-THAT-EAT-CARBON-DIOXIDE?srsltid=AfmBOopYhjiPctrruE7v1Ji-xzzNK4IcNfTBd_yP5xUcGlVa-w3m5lA8