Scary numbers on 10-year survival chances

Cobbler_tone

Linton said:

Cobbler_tone said:

Linton said:

MetaPhysical said:

My friend's daughter recently died from a brain tumour aged 32.  My wife died 14 years ago aged 50.  An "average" number is exactly that.  Sure there are people who live to 100 and above and that's a wonderful thing, but those guys are outliers and they skew the figures to disguise a the dozens who didn't make it to 60.

Get retired ASAP that your circumstances allow is my counsel and I will be doing exactly that soon aged 58.

ISTM the worst situation is surely living long after your finances are exhausted unable to maintain your previous standard of living

I have genuinely never met or known of a person that this would apply to. Everyone I know has retired and got wealthier the older they get. I'm sure it happens though with some bad investment choices and fast cars.

Not forgetting that most people retiring in their 50's have the ability to pick up extra income if needed....or if they get bored.

Yes agreed - with drawdown many people will either run out of money relatively early thanks to SOR or die rich.  Judging your expenditure to safely end up in the middle is impossible.

I think my experience is based on people with good DB pensions, state pensions, no mortgages, no dependant kids and very modest expenditure.
The previous generation(s) are generally very different. They may have had something from the catalogue over 38 weeks (my mum still orders from 'the catalogue') but wouldn't have dreamt of getting a credit card or loan etc. Many are very risk adverse and I know to this day my elderly parents won't have anything on direct debit, even though I've told them (more than once) that it would often be cheaper and that no-one is going to steal their money....well, apart from the energy company. 
Their friends are mostly the same.
I have the running line when I order anything from Amazon for them. "What do you expect me to do with cash?" before they offer to write me a cheque! Before I tell them to spend it in M&S. It blows their mind that I order something and then send them a photo the next day of the parcel on their doorstep.   

SouthCoastBoy

I think we are the start of the generation (currently aged 60) where DB pensions are more scarce, unless you work in the public sector.  If you have a decent DB you really can't run out of money as you have a pay cheque for the rest of your life. As more and more people are reliant on a DC pot there could be very choppy waters ahead.I don't know what the average DC pension is at retirement but I wouldnt be surprised if it wasn't much more than between 100 and 200k.

Albermarle

SouthCoastBoy said:

I think we are the start of the generation (currently aged 60) where DB pensions are more scarce, unless you work in the public sector.  If you have a decent DB you really can't run out of money as you have a pay cheque for the rest of your life. As more and more people are reliant on a DC pot there could be very choppy waters ahead.I don't know what the average DC pension is at retirement but I wouldnt be surprised if it wasn't much more than between 100 and 200k.

I think it is difficult to pin that number down, as it does not usually include those with no pensions.
However it is closer to £100K than £200K

Cobbler_tone

SouthCoastBoy said:

I think we are the start of the generation (currently aged 60) where DB pensions are more scarce, unless you work in the public sector.  

I posted some official stats the other day on the private sector. There are only around 200 active DB schemes left in existence if you joined a company today. If we fast forward a little there could well be none soon.
If the internet is correct they include Tesco, Sainsburys, Santander, M&S etc. 
Mine went in 2009 to new members and 2021 altogether. 

SouthCoastBoy

Cobbler_tone said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

I think we are the start of the generation (currently aged 60) where DB pensions are more scarce, unless you work in the public sector.  

I posted some official stats the other day on the private sector. There are only around 200 active DB schemes left in existence if you joined a company today. If we fast forward a little there could well be none soon.
If the internet is correct they include Tesco, Sainsburys, Santander, M&S etc. 
Mine went in 2009 to new members and 2021 altogether. 

I am amazed there are any in the private sector.

QrizB

I make this three threads on "probability of death" out of the 25 on the first page of this part of the forum.

What's got everyone so maudlin all of a sudden? Aren't we all planning to live to 120?

BrilliantButScary

QrizB said:

I make this three threads on "probability of death" out of the 25 on the first page of this part of the forum.

What's got everyone so maudlin all of a sudden? Aren't we all planning to live to 120?

To be fair, my post was about healthy life expectancy, as there does seem to be a pre-occupation with 'one more year'. Death is what happens when you are busy making other plans.

DoublePolaroid

It seems to be a pattern, at least amongst the sort of people who frequent forums about pensions, that people will tend to retire later than they could/should have due to a variety of psychological factors. So anything that helps people to bring that decision into focus - in this case codifying the reality that life is short - probably isn’t a bad thing. 

However, personally I wouldn’t take much from the statistics given because they apply to such a broad swathe of people who have wildly varying risks that relate to reduced life expectancy. The figures are skewed negatively, for example, by the 28% of adults who are clinically obese. Many of these individuals would report themselves as being healthy and may well not have any diagnosed medical conditions. The same can be said for the large chunk of people who habitually drink above recommended limits (30% of men and 15% of women). Ditto smokers, obviously (12% of adults). Ditto the sedentary (34% of men and 43% of women). Ditto people with certain manual jobs like construction workers. Etc etc.

michaels

Albermarle said:

MarlowMallard said:

Somewhere on an internet discussion, I saw a stat about "how old do you have to be on a birthday before you have less than 50/50 chance of reaching your next birthday"; the answer very surprisingly was about 107.  

However, thinking 50/50 and 1 year is not good, I decided to dig out the numbers for a 90% chance of getting to current birthday+10 years.   The answer came out about age 58 for a random UK male, add 2 years if you were born female, also add 2 years if you have no pre-existing health conditions. 

Since I am male and was 59 at the time I did this, it was a significant factor in my decision to semi-retire just after 60 . Since then two of my colleagues in an office of 40 people have died suddenly before retirement age, so I don't regret my decision.  

It is an interesting point, but also from a finances point of view you have to also take into account that you might live to a ripe old age.
I think for someone age 60 there is a 25% chance of reaching your Nineties, and it is not correct ( as is often intimated) that by that age you will be ga ga and won't care.
My OH's Uncle lived to 99 and was mentally perfectly OK until he was 98.
Also she has recently visited a friends Mother who is 100, and reads the Daily Telegraph every day and lives at home on her own.
On the other hand like everybody I know people who died early .
So its all a balancing act between different unknown scenarios.

Hmm - bit of a logic failure here

Albermarle

michaels said:

Albermarle said:

MarlowMallard said:

Somewhere on an internet discussion, I saw a stat about "how old do you have to be on a birthday before you have less than 50/50 chance of reaching your next birthday"; the answer very surprisingly was about 107.  

However, thinking 50/50 and 1 year is not good, I decided to dig out the numbers for a 90% chance of getting to current birthday+10 years.   The answer came out about age 58 for a random UK male, add 2 years if you were born female, also add 2 years if you have no pre-existing health conditions. 

Since I am male and was 59 at the time I did this, it was a significant factor in my decision to semi-retire just after 60 . Since then two of my colleagues in an office of 40 people have died suddenly before retirement age, so I don't regret my decision.  

It is an interesting point, but also from a finances point of view you have to also take into account that you might live to a ripe old age.
I think for someone age 60 there is a 25% chance of reaching your Nineties, and it is not correct ( as is often intimated) that by that age you will be ga ga and won't care.
My OH's Uncle lived to 99 and was mentally perfectly OK until he was 98.
Also she has recently visited a friends Mother who is 100, and reads the Daily Telegraph every day and lives at home on her own.
On the other hand like everybody I know people who died early .
So its all a balancing act between different unknown scenarios.

Hmm - bit of a logic failure here

I was tempted to comment on her choice of paper, but you know what happens when threads get a bit political !