Scary numbers on 10-year survival chances

MarlowMallard

Somewhere on an internet discussion, I saw a stat about "how old do you have to be on a birthday before you have less than 50/50 chance of reaching your next birthday"; the answer very surprisingly was about 107.  

However, thinking 50/50 and 1 year is not good, I decided to dig out the numbers for a 90% chance of getting to current birthday+10 years.   The answer came out about age 58 for a random UK male, add 2 years if you were born female, also add 2 years if you have no pre-existing health conditions. 

Since I am male and was 59 at the time I did this, it was a significant factor in my decision to semi-retire just after 60 . Since then two of my colleagues in an office of 40 people have died suddenly before retirement age, so I don't regret my decision.  

david29dpo

Your point?

2nd_time_buyer

Thanks, interesting pov. 10% is a small but tangible risk with quite a significant downside. Similar to Russian roulette... 

...The odds don't seem that high when you consider a population but they come into focus when it is you playing the "game".

P.S. after internet research: With 6 bullets in a revolver, Russian roulette would appear to have odds of 1 in 6. However, due to the weight of the bullet and other mechanical quirks like the "interlock", the odds for the first person are much, much lower. Obviously, not for the second person though (if it is not spun again).

Cobbler_tone

Get busy living rather than playing with odds. IMO you should retire as soon as feasibly possible....unless you live to work of course and then work as long as feasibly possible.

Sarahspangles

2nd_time_buyer said:

Thanks, interesting pov. 10% is a small but tangible risk with quite a significant downside. Similar to Russian roulette... 

...The odds don't seem that high when you consider a population but they come into focus when it is you playing the "game".

P.S. after internet research: With 6 bullets in a revolver, Russian roulette would appear to have odds of 1 in 6. However, due to the weight of the bullet and other mechanical quirks like the "interlock", the odds for the first person are much, much lower. Obviously, not for the second person though (if it is not spun again).

Never tell me the odds

Han Solo

cfw1994

david29dpo said:

Your point?

I assume it is that once you reach the heady age of 58, there is a 10% change you won’t reach 70 - so quit and enjoy your time, there may be <10 years left of it 🤷‍♂️

I had always wanted to finish work early, but around the age of 52-3, I went to 4 funerals in just over a year - 2 very dear friends my age, another low 60s, the last higher 60s 😔
Over the next couple of years, a couple of other people I knew fairly well passed away whilst still working 😔

It very much focussed my mind (& spreadsheet skills) on stepping away from the wage ASAP 🤓

COVID stopped me from dropping things (working in IT, might as well zoom for a while than travel nowhere 🫣), but just over 4 years ago was Freedom Day 😎
Never regretted the decision for a moment, & as many here will be familiar, it makes you wonder how you had time to work 💪

Typing whilst slowly waking up in a tent on stilts overlooking the Atlantic for a couple of nights - it’s playtime 🤣

MetaPhysical

My friend's daughter recently died from a brain tumour aged 32.  My wife died 14 years ago aged 50.  An "average" number is exactly that.  Sure there are people who live to 100 and above and that's a wonderful thing, but those guys are outliers and they skew the figures to disguise a the dozens who didn't make it to 60.

Get retired ASAP that your circumstances allow is my counsel and I will be doing exactly that soon aged 58.

Linton

MetaPhysical said:

My friend's daughter recently died from a brain tumour aged 32.  My wife died 14 years ago aged 50.  An "average" number is exactly that.  Sure there are people who live to 100 and above and that's a wonderful thing, but those guys are outliers and they skew the figures to disguise a the dozens who didn't make it to 60.

Get retired ASAP that your circumstances allow is my counsel and I will be doing exactly that soon aged 58.

The statistics from the ONS life tables released in 2020 show that for a male born in 1965 the chance of dying before 60 is very close to the predicted chance of living to 100.

ISTM the worst situation is surely living long after your finances are exhausted unable to maintain your previous standard of living;  If you die early you will be dead and so not in a position to care.

Cobbler_tone

Linton said:

MetaPhysical said:

My friend's daughter recently died from a brain tumour aged 32.  My wife died 14 years ago aged 50.  An "average" number is exactly that.  Sure there are people who live to 100 and above and that's a wonderful thing, but those guys are outliers and they skew the figures to disguise a the dozens who didn't make it to 60.

Get retired ASAP that your circumstances allow is my counsel and I will be doing exactly that soon aged 58.

ISTM the worst situation is surely living long after your finances are exhausted unable to maintain your previous standard of living

I have genuinely never met or known of a person that this would apply to. Everyone I know has retired and got wealthier the older they get. I'm sure it happens though with some bad investment choices and fast cars.

Not forgetting that most people retiring in their 50's have the ability to pick up extra income if needed....or if they get bored.

Albermarle

MarlowMallard said:

Somewhere on an internet discussion, I saw a stat about "how old do you have to be on a birthday before you have less than 50/50 chance of reaching your next birthday"; the answer very surprisingly was about 107.  

However, thinking 50/50 and 1 year is not good, I decided to dig out the numbers for a 90% chance of getting to current birthday+10 years.   The answer came out about age 58 for a random UK male, add 2 years if you were born female, also add 2 years if you have no pre-existing health conditions. 

Since I am male and was 59 at the time I did this, it was a significant factor in my decision to semi-retire just after 60 . Since then two of my colleagues in an office of 40 people have died suddenly before retirement age, so I don't regret my decision.  

It is an interesting point, but also from a finances point of view you have to also take into account that you might live to a ripe old age.
I think for someone age 60 there is a 25% chance of reaching your Nineties, and it is not correct ( as is often intimated) that by that age you will be ga ga and won't care.
My OH's Uncle lived to 99 and was mentally perfectly OK until he was 98.
Also she has recently visited a friends Mother who is 100, and reads the Daily Telegraph every day and lives at home on her own.
On the other hand like everybody I know people who died early .
So its all a balancing act between different unknown scenarios.

Linton

Cobbler_tone said:

Linton said:

MetaPhysical said:

My friend's daughter recently died from a brain tumour aged 32.  My wife died 14 years ago aged 50.  An "average" number is exactly that.  Sure there are people who live to 100 and above and that's a wonderful thing, but those guys are outliers and they skew the figures to disguise a the dozens who didn't make it to 60.

Get retired ASAP that your circumstances allow is my counsel and I will be doing exactly that soon aged 58.

ISTM the worst situation is surely living long after your finances are exhausted unable to maintain your previous standard of living

I have genuinely never met or known of a person that this would apply to. Everyone I know has retired and got wealthier the older they get. I'm sure it happens though with some bad investment choices and fast cars.

Not forgetting that most people retiring in their 50's have the ability to pick up extra income if needed....or if they get bored.

Yes agreed - with drawdown many people will either run out of money relatively early thanks to SOR or die rich.  Judging your expenditure to safely end up in the middle is impossible.

However I dont think that gives you a justification for spending today because you could die tomorrow.