Index trackers & ETFs

El_Selb

Just wondering where people think there are the most opportunities currently given current turbulence?

I put a small chunk into S&P 500 last week. Wondering where other people think the most potential upswings are...

Voyager2002

El_Selb said:

Just wondering where people think there are the most opportunities currently given current turbulence?

I put a small chunk into S&P 500 last week. Wondering where other people think the most potential upswings are...

There are potential upswings everywhere... your job is to decide which of these will remain potential, and which (if any) will be realised.

For example, last night the US Congress voted on whether to withdraw from the president the emergency powers under which Donald Trump has imposed his tariffs. The result was a tie: 49 votes for, 49 votes against. So the US vice-president had the casting vote, and used it to support the president. Just suppose there had been a single vote difference.... and also suppose that the president had then obeyed the ruling. That would have led to the tariffs being removed, and a big jump in the S and P 500. Did it happen in reality? Will it happen next week?

Personally, I am trying to avoid the USA, and countries that depend on trade with the USA. Infrastructure looks attractive...

Hoenir

El_Selb said:

Just wondering where people think there are the most opportunities currently given current turbulence?

I put a small chunk into S&P 500 last week. Wondering where other people think the most potential upswings are...

Trump and his administration get kicked out of office.  The damage to the "American Brand"  is ongoing. With no end in sight. 

wmb194

Sell in May and go away.

kempiejon

I try not to make predictions as I know I can't know but I have made a few bob these past 6 months from my gold etfs and shares in the contract for difference traders PLUS. I sold some of my S&P cap weighted etf and redirected the money to a S&P equal weighted etf. I've been adding to UK banks Lloyds and Natwest. But that's all in my more speculative account not where the bulk of my funds are.

Mostly I'm in and adding to vanguard global trackers VEVE developed and VWRP all world, I do have some fixed interest, gilts and bonds which get a small percentage. 

InvesterJones

El_Selb said:

Just wondering where people think there are the most opportunities currently given current turbulence?

I put a small chunk into S&P 500 last week. Wondering where other people think the most potential upswings are...

In what time frame? For the 10+ years it's recommended for equities then I think the most opportunities are in global diversification, rather than trying to predict the single winner.

Linton

Short term upswings and downswings should be irrelevent. Neither you nor anyone else can predict them sufficiently accurately to be reasonably sure of providing an ongoing benefit. Just put the amount of money you want to invest into a range of diversified funds structured to meet your objectives and leave them alone. 

Labtebricolist

As a private investor you (and I for that matter) are the dumb money.  There is no way you will consistently identify and time relevant macro trends sufficiently regularly to beat the market average over a reasonable investment time horizon.

Buy a global tracker.  If you feel like you want to be clever (and I certainly do, from time to time) carve out a smallish proportion for speculative investments and have fun with it. 

dunstonh

El_Selb said:

Just wondering where people think there are the most opportunities currently given current turbulence?

I put a small chunk into S&P 500 last week. Wondering where other people think the most potential upswings are...

Historically, Global ex US vs US tend to cycle.   We could be seeing the end of the US dominance to be replaced with global.  We don't if this is it but it will happen sooner or later.

However, one key thing for UK investors is that currency fluctuations make US equity unattractive for UK investors.   Many predict the pound getting to 1.50 to the dollar.    So, UK investors in the S&P500 are going to take some pain if that plays out.     Whereas global holdings ex US won't be affected in the same way.

InvesterJones

dunstonh said:

El_Selb said:

Just wondering where people think there are the most opportunities currently given current turbulence?

I put a small chunk into S&P 500 last week. Wondering where other people think the most potential upswings are...

Historically, Global ex US vs US tend to cycle.   We could be seeing the end of the US dominance to be replaced with global.  We don't if this is it but it will happen sooner or later.

However, one key thing for UK investors is that currency fluctuations make US equity unattractive for UK investors.   Many predict the pound getting to 1.50 to the dollar.    So, UK investors in the S&P500 are going to take some pain if that plays out.     Whereas global holdings ex US won't be affected in the same way.

There's always hedged S&P 500 for a small premium if you want to stay in the US while mitigating a weakening dollar. I used one as part of my fun portfolio back when the pound was weak and it was my highest performer. I wouldn't use it for core though as I don't know where we'll be in 20 years.

dunstonh

InvesterJones said:

dunstonh said:

El_Selb said:

Just wondering where people think there are the most opportunities currently given current turbulence?

I put a small chunk into S&P 500 last week. Wondering where other people think the most potential upswings are...

Historically, Global ex US vs US tend to cycle.   We could be seeing the end of the US dominance to be replaced with global.  We don't if this is it but it will happen sooner or later.

However, one key thing for UK investors is that currency fluctuations make US equity unattractive for UK investors.   Many predict the pound getting to 1.50 to the dollar.    So, UK investors in the S&P500 are going to take some pain if that plays out.     Whereas global holdings ex US won't be affected in the same way.

There's always hedged S&P 500 for a small premium if you want to stay in the US while mitigating a weakening dollar. I used one as part of my fun portfolio back when the pound was weak and it was my highest performer. I wouldn't use it for core though as I don't know where we'll be in 20 years.

I, too, used a currency-hedged US equity fund to split the US allocation (with unhedged) back when the rate was near parity.  I dropped it when it got to around 1.27 and went back to unhedged.   I viewed it as a short-term fund choice rather than a long-term one.  I don't currently have an S&P 500 tracker in my portfolio, though. I use a North American Tracker instead (unhedged)