Crystall ball required for rates.

[Deleted User]

Although this is more relevant to my next ISA choice of transfer, it applies to all savings.

With the US tariff situation, is there ANY way of knowing if interest rates here may drop at a slower rate than previously thought?

Normally I wouldn't be too picky but with ISAs it could be worth hundreds between a lower fixed rate and a higher (for now) variable.

masonic

There's a chance that they'll have to be cut faster to stave off recession. Any way to know? Can you predict what level tariffs will be next month? Next week? On Monday?

[Deleted User]

masonic said:

There's a chance that they'll have to be cut faster to stave off recession. Any way to know? Can you predict what level tariffs will be next month? Next week? On Monday?

Nope! But you saying they could be cut faster is something to think about. Thats part of my query, does volatility make the UK more reactive in terms of changes or not.

Cheers.

aroominyork

We're juggling possible inflation and possible recession. The usual responses are rate hikes and rate cuts respectively, but we are not in usual times. I have been holding a lot of my fixed interest allocation in cash (CSH2) since I thought rate cuts would be slower than priced in, but that might not work out to be the right decision. It's going to be a rollercoaster, so the best route is maybe a fire and forget middle path; you are unlikely to get the best outcome but you will do OK, and you will have nothing to blame yourself for when the rollercaster veers this way and that.

dinosaur66

i only worry about it when my isa is coming to end of its term which in my case is august

best guess is that rates will not be cut as much as was expected /predicted 4 months ago but who knows when everything is so volitile

i did watch a financial podcast yesterday ( 3 men one a german ) monetary studies i think there podcast is who said rachel reeves is likley to limit cash isa max deposit to 4k a year in next budget and make it stocks and shares isa that the govt is trying to funnel savers money into and even worse make it uk stocks and shares only

hope this is scaremongering / i have only ever played stockmarket once in 1986 and i got burned for half my savings at the time albeit i only had about 5k to my name / and then 2.5k left in 1987 when i can remember being absolutly gutted.

eskbanker

dinosaur66 said:

i did watch a financial podcast yesterday ( 3 men one a german ) monetary studies i think there podcast is who said rachel reeves is likley to limit cash isa max deposit to 4k a year in next budget and make it stocks and shares isa that the govt is trying to funnel savers money into and even worse make it uk stocks and shares only

hope this is scaremongering

You could look back to all the threads predicting that this would happen in the recent spring statement!

dinosaur66 said:

i have only ever played stockmarket once in 1986 and i got burned for half my savings at the time albeit i only had about 5k to my name / and then 2.5k left in 1987 when i can remember being absolutly gutted.

Getting burned with bad investing shouldn't rule out investing as a concept!  There's much more to investing than 'playing stockmarket' and the fundamentals include the acceptance that it's not a replacement for saving and that it should only be done for long-term money.  I'm sure you wouldn't be the only one to have been impacted by Black Monday and to have reached the conclusion that it hadn't been wise to invest though....

[Deleted User]

Thanks for all your replies, me being me I'll probably go for the fixed rate option this time, originally I thought that following the tariff situation the interest rate cuts would slow or cease but having read a few articles plus your messages it could easily go the other way.

I have one maturing around Sept too so at least this means one is tied in now and I can concern myself with the other one nearer the time.

Interesting times.

boingy

dinosaur66 said:

i did watch a financial podcast yesterday ( 3 men one a german ) monetary studies i think there podcast is who said rachel reeves is likley to limit cash isa max deposit to 4k a year in next budget and make it stocks and shares isa that the govt is trying to funnel savers money into and even worse make it uk stocks and shares only

That's a good way to kill off the S&S product. ;p

wmb194

dinosaur66 said:

i did watch a financial podcast yesterday ( 3 men one a german ) monetary studies i think there podcast is who said rachel reeves is likley to limit cash isa max deposit to 4k a year in next budget and make it stocks and shares isa that the govt is trying to funnel savers money into and even worse make it uk stocks and shares only 

The stockmarket isn't just equities. As well as e.g., money market ETFs, gilts are listed on the LSE so they should be an option.